Hello,
Well, last night provided us with a great change of fortune. Syracuse was down by fourteen points with about seven minutes but was able to fight back and force overtime. In OT, Syracuse dominated and pulled off the stung victory. Sports is definitely a tricky business. The 'Cuse victory started off a 3-0 night and a wonderful start to the month. Tonight is definitely the most difficult slate I have had to pick from since I started writing these posts. I had to dig deep, but I think I have found three suitable plays.
Before I continue, I am just going to address the unit system that I use that has confused some readers. In a previous post, I mentioned that each I made was going to be 10 unit wager. The monetary value of a unit can be whatever you want to make it, but I felt 10 units was a good, round number to use. Typically, on a ten unit bet, a win will get you 9 units, as the extra unit is the juice that does not come with you in a win. I did make a few bets where the odds were higher, for example, the Capitals puck line bet last night that was +180. So, that bet really won us 18 units. So, that's why the unit count may seem inflated if you were just counting 10 unit bets with 9 unit victories. From now on, i will provide the units wagered and the units that could be won after the spread.
NHL
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won)
The young guns are starting to come along in Buffalo. Led by Jack Eichel, the Sabres are playing some of their best hockey since the Ryan Miller era. They have won four of seven and are really starting to put pucks on the net. Tonight, they are playing a Rangers team who they have beaten in their last three meetings. The Rangers have really tapered off since their hot start that made them look like contenders in the tough Metropolitan division. However, a combination of poor play in their own end and Henrik Lundqvist appearing to be just ordinary for once have the Rangers stuck in the first Wild Card spot with really no shot on improving their playoff positioning going forward. The youth movement continues tonight in Buffalo, as the Sabres pull off the victory against their intrastate rivals.
NCAAB
Belmont Bruins - 3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Murray State Racers
Okay, this is where things get interesting. I don't know much about these two teams, just like I don't know much about the two teams in the next prediction. I do know that Belmont is in Nashville and has been dominating the Ohio Valley conference since joining in 2013. I know that Murray State is in Kentucky, and the 2014-2015 Racers' team was probably one of the greatest mid-major teams to miss out on the NCAA tournament. That team was led by current Thunder guard, Cameron Payne, and current Iowa State coach, Steve Prohm. Who do you think ended the dream for that Murray State team? Belmont. After that loss and subsequent NIT trip, Payne left early for the NBA and Prohm left for aforementioned Iowa State. The Racers have never been the same since that lose to the Bruins in the Ohio Valley championship and things probably will not get much better for them tonight. Belmont is currently ranked 77 in the Kenpom, while Murray State is at 181. Also, the Bruins are coming into this matchup on a 12 game winning streak compared to the Racers who have lost 2 of 3 games. The Bruins should continue their dominance and pick up a steady victory tonight in Murray.
Pepperdine Waves at San Francisco Dons -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Again, I don't know anything about these teams other than the fact that they are both in the WCC, and that Bill Russell went to school at San Fran. This is strictly a Kenpom play. The Dons are in the top 100. The Waves are currently a sub 300 team (there are 351 teams rated in the the Kenpom). Teams like Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke are constantly double digit favorites against other teams that are also ranked in the top 100 of the Kenpom rankings. I find it hard to believe there can be such a discrepancy between the two teams in the Kenpom, and San Francisco won't blow Pepperdine out of the water. I'm gonna roll with the Dons tonight in a rather obscure spot.
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 47-30-4 (+162 units)
February: 3-0 (+36 units)
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