Daily Three 2/28

 Hello,

 We almost had a perfect night. Little Rock could not get us the extra basket that we needed. Still, great work was done by the Lightning and Bears. I don't see anything favorable tonight, so we are just going to take it off. March is crazy, so we can just chill and prepare. Maybe, you can watch Kevin Shattenkirk's debut for your Nation's Capitals. It will be fun. February was a rough month for us here at the Daily Three, but it does not deter us. It motivates us to get better and wiser. March will be our best month yet. So with that, enjoy the last day of February, and we will see you when the calendar turns.

 Yesterday: 2-1
 Overall: 82-74-6 (100.5 Units)
 February: 38-43-2 (-24.5 Units)
 20 Unit Bets: 2-0

Daily Three 2/27

 Hello,

 I apologize for yesterday's outing. It was one of those days that I didn't love anything but thought there were some leans that would work. It didn't, and La La Land didn't win. I'm sure Moonlight is a phenomenal movie and a worthy winner. Tonight, we are going fight hard to get those units back. The NHL and NCAAB will hopefully get us there.

NHL 
Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5, +165 (10 units wagered, 16.5 units won)

 The Tampa Bay Lightning made a gigantic decision yesterday. Instead of sticking with their veteran tender that took them to the Stanley Cup, GM Steve Yzerman has decided that youngster, Andrei Vasilevskiy will be the man that will stop pucks for the Bolts in the future. Vasilevskiy is a highly touted prospect that has always been expected to do big things in the NHL. He has just always had Bishop in front of him. In the team's first game since the big shakeup, I am expecting Vasilevskiy to get a big confidence boost and shut down Senators team that is playing their third game in four days on the road. The Sens have failed to score more than two goals in a game thus far on their current road trip. This helps Vasilevskiy's case even more. Lastly, the reunion of the vaunted "Triplets" line (Nikita Kucherov, Tyler Johnson, and Ondrej Palat) has really sparked what has been an anemic offense for the most part season. Expect the trio to combine for a few tallies, as the Lightning blow out the Sens in Tampa.

NCAAB
West Virginia Mountaineers at Baylor Bears Pick Em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 I've been wrong about Baylor so many times that eventually I have to get it right. Everything must regress back to the mean. Baylor has had some tough losses the past couple of weeks, and I think they are ready to turn it around. In the previous game between these two teams a month ago, West Virginia was able to control the tempo of the game by causing turnovers and feeding off of a raucous Morgantown crowd. Tonight, the Bears should be able to control the ball and slow down the game. The energy from the crowd in Waco will definitely help them out too. Take the Bears as our fortunes with this squad should change for the better.

Georgia Southern Eagles at Arkansas Little Rock Trojans -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 I don't know much about either of these schools. I do know that the Trojans upset Purdue in the big dance last year. Then, their coach got hired by UNLV, only to leave the school after a week, so he could be the new coach at Texas Tech. Weird stuff. Anyway, the reason I am going after this game is because it makes absolutely no sense. Georgia Southern is currently tied for second in the Sun Belt Conference with a 11-5 conference record and an 18-11 record overall. Arkansas Little Rock is an awful 4-11 in conference and 13-15 overall. The Eagles are currently rated 172 in the Kenpom, while the Trojans are at 240. Lastly, the Eagles are receiving close to 80% of ATS bets so far on this game. Despite all of this, the Trojans are currently 3 point favorites, and they opened up as 1 point favorites. So, even though the Trojans have all of this going against them, they keep giving up points to the Eagles. This is clearly a situation where Vegas knows something that the general populace does not. I am not going to fall for their trap. I am going with the Trojans here, as we should be the few that prosper on the result of this game.

Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 80-73-6 (+85 Units)
February: 36-42-2 (-39 units)
20 Unit Bets 2-0

Daily Three 2/26

 Hello,

 We went 4-2 yesterday. Disappointed by the Arizona result, but it is what it is. Three picks today, no write-ups, and five Oscar predictions. I would tell you to bet on the Oscar predictions, but the odds are pretty ridiculous.

NCAAB
Wisconsin Badgers -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Michigan State Spartans

Washington Huskies -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Washington State Cougars

Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Oscar's Predictions 

Best Picture: La La Land (If anything else wins, then the Academy should be disbanded)

Best Actor: Casey Affleck, Manchester by the Sea

Best Actress: Emma Stone, La La Land

Best Supporting Actor: Mahershala Ali, Moonlight (Moonlight has to win at least one award, this is probably where it is going to be.

Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, Fences

Best Director: Damien Chazelle, La La Land

Yesterday: 4-2
Overall: 80-70-6 (+115 units)
February: 36-39-2 (-9 units)
20 Unit Bets: 2-0

Daily Three (Times Two) 2/25

 Hello,

 Last night was weird, but clearly, every night is weird. You know the drill. It is Saturday. I'm giving you six picks with no write-up. It went well last week. I'm guessing it will go well this week too.

NCAAB
Georgetown Hoyas at St. John's Red Storm Pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

SMU Mustangs at UConn Huskies +6 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Seton Hall Pirates at DePaul Blue Demons +7.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Richmond Spiders -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Fordham Rams

Marquette Golden Eagles at Providence Friars -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) #bigcatweek

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 76-68-6 (+99 Units)
February: 32-37-2 (-25 Units)
20 Unit Bets: 2-0

Daily Three 2/24

 Hello,

 Last night was quite the roller coaster ride. Each game had its doom and gloom, but also peaks and valleys. It ended up with a huge lock of the month coming through, Loyola (Marymount) continuing to dominate me, and the Clippers blowing a huge lead and then making the most miraculous spread comeback, honestly, in betting history. Here is the play-by-play of the game last night. Look at the last minute and a half of the fourth quarter. It is absolutely insane. Since last night's blog was so huuuuuuge, this edition will be a bit subdued. Nonetheless, three picks from all across the sports landscape that is guaranteed to get your weekend off to a good start.

NHL 
Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals -1.5, +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won)

 You know how I feel about our Nation's Capitals when they play at home. They usually score a lot and don't let the other team score at all. I am a little concerned that Caps may be down two defensemen tonight, but it won't stop the Caps from scoring. They haven't played at home in two weeks, so the Phone Booth will be rocking. Take the easy money and go with the Caps.

NBA
Boston Celtics at Toronto Raptors -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 The Raptors are receiving sharp money. That is all.

NCAAB
Oakland Grizzlies at UW Green Bay Phoenix Pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 I'm going to list why I like the Phoenix in numerical order.

1. Phoenix is probably one of the cooler nicknames in college sports today.
2. I lived in Wisconsin for five years and was a part of the UW school system.
3. Charles Cooper can ball.
4. The Phoenix are ninth fastest team in the country in terms of tempo. They are going to get up and down the court, and it is going to be fun to watch.
5. The Phoenix are going to win.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 75-66-6 (+110 units)
February: 31-35-2 (-14 units)
20 unit picks: 2-0

Daily Three 2/23 (The Late Night Hammer Edition)

 Hello,

 Last night did not go as planned and showed us that there are no locks in this business. The Panthers lost as huge favorites, and UC Irvine missed nine free throws in a game that they definitely should have won. Despite the disappointment of last night, we got a special night ahead of us. We got a little bang bang, bang bang, bang bang. That's right, all three picks will be late night hammers that will give us great news as we wake up tomorrow morning. But wait, I have even more incredible news. The vaunted lock of the month will also be coming up with our last pick. Yeah, this is our most action-packed edition of Daily Three yet, and it is coming at you, right now!

NBA
Los Angeles Clippers +12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Golden State Warriors

 The NBA is back from its week long break, and we get the second half of the season started with a simple contrarian, sharp money. Currently, the Golden State Warriors are receiving 82% of ATS bets, yet the line has actually gone down a point from 13.5 to 12.5. Obviously, the public loves the Warriors, and Chris Paul is not playing tonight. It makes sense that 4/5th of the bets would be on the Warriors. So what exactly is the public missing here? Well, the All-Star break is going to have an impact on these players. These teams haven't a played a real game (the All-Star game does not count) in a week, so it is going to be a little sloppier than usual, and there will probably be more missed shots than usual. Sloppy play and below average shooting leads to less scoring, which ultimately results in closer games. Also, when you consider that the shooting may not be up to par tonight, would you be more comfortable with the team that depends on getting most of its scoring from its big guys inside, or would you prefer the team that shoots from far and away? For tonight, I'm going with the team that scores in the paint and that would be LA, led by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. I'm not saying that the Clippers will win this game, but I think factors, like sharp money and rust, will keep this game closer than most people think.

NCAAB
San Francisco Dons -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Loyola Marymount Lions

 Roll Dons Roll. That was the motto of one of my rivals in high school (Ironically named Loyola ). Loyola was the one school that my teammates and I never defeated in high school (I am pretty sure). Every lacrosse and soccer game ended in L. I always had rough thoughts about a Don even though, I never knew what it was (according to the USF website, it is meant to represent a distinguished gentleman is Spanish). Despite my consistent struggles with the Dons, one night, I ran into a pick that I could just not resist. The San Francisco Dons were favored by -10.5 over the Pepperdine Waves. The Kenpom numbers were ridiculous, and San Fan was just a great basketball team. In my head, I wondered how I could support a team named the Dons? But then I realized, you have to use your head in this business, not your heart. So, I did just that, and the Dons and I have never looked back. San Fran is ranked considerably higher in the Kenpom than Loyola Marymount, and the Dons won their only previous meeting. Today, I will finally defeat Loyola (Marymount), and I suggest you all join me in this great endeavor.

LOTM: USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats -8 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)

 Yep, it is time for the Lock of the Month. I'm sure you are intrigued by the pick. I am taking a pretty considerable favorite that only has three less losses than their opponent. So, what I do know that has me leaning so heavily towards the Wildcats? I only have one factor for the Trojans, and it is a fairly startling statistic. The USC Trojans are the luckiest team in the country. I am not saying that based on watching them play, or what talking heads say on the college basketball post-game shows. There is an actual statistic that proves this. As I have mentioned before, the Kenpom has its own category for how lucky or unlucky a team is throughout the course of the season. Essentially, it ranks a team's actual record against what the Kenpom's numbers and analytics perceive their record should be. So, Kenpom is essentially saying that USC has been able to overcome their lack of efficiency in comparison to their opponents to pull out wins that they otherwise should not have gotten. This is statistic is useful, because the Trojans should eventually regress back towards the record that the numbers state they should have. So, Arizona was already a better team than the Trojans when you didn't include how lucky USC really is. When you add the luck factor, you begin to clearly see that the Wildcats are just a superior team. So, what exactly makes the Wildcats so good? For one, they currently have 7 foot Finnish projected lottery pick that can drain threes at will, Lauri Markkanen. They have another 7 foot Serbian monster that protects the rim as well as any other big man in the land, Dusan Ristic. Oh, and don't forget the talented guard, who literally has "scorer" written in his DNA, Alonso Trier. Also, they definitely have the best current coach who has never made a final four, Sean Miller. He should definitely be in the talk for Coach of the Year with Scott Drew, Mick Cronin, and Mark Few, amongst others. The fact this team only has three losses this year even though they went through a stretch this season where a quarter of their team was either hurt or suspended is absolutely remarkable. This team does not get much love, because they play their games very late in the night. Despite this hindrance to the East Coast college basketball fan, this team goes out on a nightly basis and wins. Tonight, they get to play a team that they have already beaten and will be looking to build momentum heading into their big showdown with UCLA on Saturday night. Also, let us not forget #bigcatweek. Don't sleep on the Wildcats tonight, and lock in this big bet as I am expecting big things in Tucson tonight.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 73-65-6 (+93 units)
February: 29-34-2 (-31 units)
20 Unit Picks: 1-0

Daily Three 2/22

 Hello,

Half of the sharp money hit last night as the Tigers of Clemson pulled off a miraculous victory in Blacksburg. Not much help else where, but we continue to move as we gear up for more college hoops and NHL action.

NHL 
Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers -145 (10 units wagered, 6.8 won)

 Yes I know, this isn't the sexiest pick ever. But we are looking to win units no matter the appearance of the bet. The Panthers have recovered from the injury bug and are on a serious tear. They have won 5 straight (3 of them against the Pacific Division, and hey what do you know, the Oilers are in the Pacific) and 8 of their last 9 games overall. This is pretty remarkable turnaround for a team that fired their coach earlier in the season. The Oilers are incredibly far away from home (2,990.4 m) and are playing the second of a back-to-back set, in which they got rocked last night by the Lightning. Also, we shall not forget that it is #bigcatweek. We are just going to get some units with the Panthers in Sunrise tonight. 

NCAAB

Providence Friars +7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Creighton Blue Jays

 This is strictly a contrarian, sharp money pick. The Blue Jays are currently receiving 81% of ATS bets yet the line has dropped a half point from 7.5 to 7 since the line opened. We know that Creighton is just not the same team since Maurice Watson Jr. tore his ACL, and Providence is currently trying to stay on the bubble. Creighton has essentially locked up a bid in the tourney and are just trying to weather the storm until March. I think Ky Cartwright and Co. will go into Omaha and give Creighton a game tonight. 

UC Irvine Anteaters -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Cal State Fullerton Titans

 Bang bang. Bang bang. Bang Bang. The late night hammer is back with some Big West action. These two school are more fit for a baseball diamond, but tonight, they will be meeting each other on the hardwood. The Anteaters have taken control of the Big West and have also taken care of me. Sometimes, you just have to roll with a good thing, and i will continue to do that with the Anteaters. Numbers wise, the Anteaters are 135 spots higher in the Kenpom than the Titans and are also way more efficient on both sides of the ball. There is really nothing here that has me scared of the Titans, and I think the Anteaters will come out on top in this battle of Cali schools. 

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 72-63-6 (+104 Units)
February: 28-32-2 (-22 Units)
20 Unit Picks: 1-0 

Daily Three 2/21

 Hello,

 I hope everyone enjoyed the day off. Today, we are dropping in on the NHL and college basketball, as the all-star break continues in the NBA. Let's do it.

NHL
Ottawa Senators at New Jersey Devils -1.5, +240 (10 units wagered, 24 units won)

 The Senators are coming into this game completely underhanded. Tonight, they will be without Mike Hoffman, Mark Stone, and Bobby Ryan. Not only are these three players important parts of top six, but they also use up considerable power play time. The power play units are going to look very different and will probably lack chemistry. Also, the bottom six forwards, as a result of the injuries, are going to contain guys that have been sitting in the press box all year as healthy scratches or inexperienced youngsters that have been riding the bus in the AHL all year. The Sens are really going to struggle to put pucks in the net against a Devils team that normally strives at the Prudential Center. The only concern will be if the Devils can score enough. Fortunately, Taylor Hall should be able to create ample opportunities for his team, and I think the Devils should score about three or four goals tonight. Go with the Devils tonight and attack the great value that is being offered.

NCAAB
Clemson Tigers +1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Virginia Tech Hokies
Davidson Wildcats -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Richmond Spiders

 THIS IS NOT A PARLAY. I REPEAT, THIS IS NOT A PARLAY. This is a first for the blog, as I am going to write-up two games together as the betting trends are just remarkably similar. Here, we got two road teams that the public does not have much faith in. The Tigers are getting a mere 22% of ATS bets, while the Wildcats are only receiving 33% of ATS bets. What does the public see here? I mean the Tigers and Wildcats are rated slightly ahead of their opponents in the Kenpom. These two teams also seriously challenged themselves in the non conference slate as they both rank in the top 100 in NCSOS. The Hokies and Spiders are outside of the top 150 in the same category. Despite this, the public is lured in by the low number spread, and the home court advantage that the Hokies and Spiders have. The public is always attracted to home court advantage and will blindly throw out other factors if they see such a low number included with the home team. In this case, Vegas really has the public digging for fool's gold. Although the disparity in betting percentages is fairly significant, the lines have both gone towards the road teams. The Tigers opened up as 2.5 point dogs but have now moved to 1.5 and look like they may even move down another half point. The Wildcats started off as underdogs and are now 1.5 point favorites. See, here at the Daily Three, we start trends. We don't follow them. Tonight, we will watch the Tigers and Wildcats rip the money out of the public's pockets, and then nicely hand deliver it to us in straight, hard cash. Be a leader, not a follower, and go with the cat family tonight in college hoops (after all, it is Big Cat week).

 Yesterday: 0-0
 Overall: 71-61-6 (+115 units)
 February: 27-31-2 (-11 Units)
 20 Unit Bets: 1-0

Daily Three 2/20

 Hello,

Well, another 2-1 day, but thanks to the huge win by the Red Wings,  we had a glorious +22 unit day. Great work was done by the Badgers also, and the Wolverines were almost able to pull it out but fell just short. Today will be a first for us, as I am not going to suggest any plays at all. There are no NBA games, only two NHL games, and barely any college basketball tonight. We don't force things here, and we are just going to chill and enjoy the successful weekend that we had. I don't know, maybe you can have a nice Thai dinner. So, tonight we relax and get back on that grind tomorrow.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 71-61-6 (+115 units)
February: 27-31-2 (-11 units)
20 Unit Bets: 1-0

Daily Three 2/19

  Hello,

   Normally, we are going to be fairly pleased with a 4-2 night. However, the two losses were just incredibly bad beats. Baylor was beating Kansas the entire game and were up by 6 with 3 and half minutes left. They lost by two on a questionable foul call. Although that loss was egregious, what happened in the Rhode Island-George Mason game was bonkers. The Rams were up 18 points at one point in the second half, and somehow could not cover the 4 point spread. The most amazing part of this bad beat was that Rhode Island had an opportunity up 3 to cover the spread with 2 free throws at the 2 second mark. The guy just had to make 1 free throw to push, and he ended up missing both. Just a ridiculously bad beat. However, we finished up on the day, and we shall continue to push forward.

NHL
Detroit Red Wings +230 (10 units wagered, 23 units won) at Pittsburgh Penguins

This line is just outrageous. The Penguins are really good at home, but they aren't unbeatable. The Red Wings got a big win over the Caps yesterday and this value is just too good to pass up. Let's take our chances with this.

NCAAB
Maryland Terrapins at Wisconsin Badgers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

We are going to stick with narrative that the Turtles are overrated. When I first saw this line, I was pretty shocked. The Badgers have been struggling over the past week, and everyone seems to love Maryland. However, I think Vegas knows something we don't, and the public is taking the bait with Melo and Co. I'm going with the Badgers in the Kohl Center this afternoon.

Michigan Wolverines -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Minnesota Golden Gophers

 The Wolverines are hot, so I am just going to ride with it.

Yesterday: 4-2
Overall: 69-60-6 (+93 units)
February: 25-30-2 (-33 units)
20 Unit Bets

Daily Three (Times Two) 2/18

 Hello,

  Last night was a solid 2-1 night. We took a shot with the Blue Jackets, and they could only manage to win in overtime. It happens. Today, it is somehow 60 degrees in Chicago, so there would be no write-ups today. I encourage you all to go outside and do something fun today. Who knows how many opportunities you will get to be able to play outside in Chicago in February? Anyway, here are some picks for another jam packed college basketball Saturday

NCABB
Kansas Jayhawks at Baylor Bears -2 (10 units wagered, 9 won)

College of Charleston Cougars -1 (10 units wagered, 9 won) at Northeastern Huskies

Rhode Island Rams -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at George Mason Patriots

Florida State Seminoles at Pittsburgh Panthers +5.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

San Francisco Dons -6.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Portland Pilots

 UC Riverside Higlanders at UC Irvine Anteaters -13.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 65-58-6 (+77 units)
February: 21-28-2 (-49 units)
20 unit bets: 1-0

Daily Three 2/17

 Hello,

 So, good news is that we had a positive night in terms of units. Thanks to the great effort from the Oilers, and Pat Maroon standing up for Mr. McDavid, we got a feel of some green. The bad news is that we went 1-1-1 and got bailed out in the Bulls game in the process. Regardless, we were up, and we will continue fighting. With the NBA all-star break coming up, most guys would probably take the weekend off but not this guy. I am here to give you the picks you need, so let's do it.

 NCAAB
Penn Quakers -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Brown Bears

For this write-up, I will refer you to my 20 unit pick last week that hit. It is worth noting that Penn has won their last two games and Brown has similar Kenpom numbers to the Columbia team the Quakers beat last week.

Canisius Golden Griffins -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Rider Broncs

 We have a couple of things going in our favor with this one. First, Canisius is ranked considerably higher than Rider in the Kenpom. Also, Rider doesn't do anything particularly well, while Canisius actually has a wonderful offense. They are ranked #69 in terms of offensive efficiency in the Kenpom. That alone should give us the lean towards Canisius. Most importantly, majority of the bets are going to Rider with 55%, but the spread has moved a full point towards Canisius since opening. So, we got an offensive juggernaut and sharp money rolling in, sign me up. Go with the Golden Griffins tonight in this matchup of really strange nicknames.

NHL
Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets -1.5, +220 (10 units wagered, 22 units won)

When this game opened on the board, the pick was essentially a toss-up in terms of the money line. Currently, the line has shifted so that the Blue Jackets are considerable favorites. This occurred, while the Pens were getting the majority of bets on the money line. Sharp money is on the Blue Jackets, and we are going to follow it. The Pens are playing the second of a back-to-bcak, and last night's game was a brutal OT game against Winnipeg. Also, the Blue Jackets demolished the Pens 7-1 in their earlier meeting in Columbus. We are going to jump at this insane value and hope the cannon doesn't stop popping tonight.

Yesterday: 1-1-1
Oerall: 63-57-6 (+69 Units)
February: 19-27-2 (-57 Units)
20 Unit Picks: 1-0

Daily Three 2/16

 Hello,

 The Sharks scored five goals last night. They still lost the game. Give props to the Panthers though, they came out flying and wanted to give Jags a nice birthday presents. We split the other two games, but we will continue to fight on. Tonight is going to be our time zone edition, so be ready for a ton of references to travel.

 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers -1.5, +190 (10 units wagered, 19 units won)

 We've got beef in between two NHL players, and they involve teams that play on opposite coasts weird. Here is a nice link to how seriously the city of Edmonton is taking this game, but I will give a little background.  It all started last season in a matchup between these Flyers and Oilers. Future face of the league, Connor McDavid, was well on his way to winning the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) and sparking what had been a fairly lifeless franchise this decade. However, just as things were looking up for the Oilers, disaster struck. Late in the second period of said game, McDavid was driving hard to the net, when he took a hit from Flyers defenseman, Brandon Manning, and went hard into the boards. McDavid got up gingerly and went back to the locker room. He would stay in the locker room for another 37 games, and ultimately, the hit ended his quest for the Calder Trophy. The Oilers slid back to irrelevance and struggled for another year. The two sides met for the first time since the big hit earlier this season. Look what happens after McDavid scores on the power play here, specifically at the :11 second mark. I'm not a lip reader, but I think I know what Connor was getting at. The Oilers would end up blowing a huge lead, and the Flyers ended up winning in overtime. After the game, the normally even-keeled McDavid went off on Manning, calling him "classless" and accusing Manning of injuring himself on purpose. Manning defended himself and said that guys in the league know who he is, and that he would never intentionally injure another player. Well, two months later, here we are for McDavid-Manning: Part 3. Honestly, who would you go with in a one-on-one battle between these two, the shining young star that is taking the league by storm, or the average defenseman that plays on a middling Philadelphia Flyers team. Yeah, I will go with McDavid every time. In regards to the teams, the Flyers are playing in the second of a back-to-back set after flying across North America to get to Alberta, where they would be playing the Flames and Oilers (they got smoked in Calgary last night). If you add on the hassle of having to go through Canadian customs, this team must be incredibly jet-lagged and gassed. I mean traveling two time zones is already tiring enough, but going through customs too, man that is tough. I expect McDavid's boys to have his back tonight against an exhausted Flyers squad and don't be surprised if Matty Hendricks drops the gloves with Manning (worth noting Hendricks might have the most underrated shootout move in the league).

NBA 
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Man, the spread of this game has swung like a pendulum. First, it opened up with the Celtics favored by a point. Immediately following the original spread opened, sharp money pushed it all the way to Chicago being favored by a point. Then, D-Wade was announced out of tonight's game with a wrist injury, and the spread moved back to the opening line. Now, the spread is back with the Bulls, and they are now favored by a point. I could talk about how 75% of ATS bets are on the Celtics and yet the spread keeps moving towards the Bulls, but you have heard that spiel already. Plus, as I already promised, this is the time zone edition of the Daily Three. So, let's look at Boston's recent schedule: Last Wednesday at Sacramento, last Thursday at Portland, Saturday at Utah, Monday at Dallas, last night home against Philly, and then tonight they are in Chicago. Over the past week, the Celtics have traveled over FOUR different time zones, and after getting back to their base, they had to immediately fly all the way back to the central time zone to play the second of a back-to-back. This type of travel just takes an incredible toll on one's body, even the greatest athletes in the world. Not only will the Celtics be dealing with their body clocks having to deal with another time change, but they also will have to get over the mental hurdle of so much travel and the fact that most of these guys are about to start a week-long vacation (All-Star break starts Thursday). Yes, these guys are professionals, but I think they are really going to struggle both to focus on the task at hand tonight, as well as physically be able to keep with a more-rested Bulls team. I think Jimmy and Co. will go into the break with a big win over the Celtics.

NCAAB
Sacramento State Hornets at Montana Grizzlies -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

I don't know what I am doing with this. I don't know anything at all about these two teams, nor did I know that Sacramento State were the Hornets before having to look it up (notable alumni include Tom Hanks, NBC Nightly News Anchor, Lester Holt, and the Office's Creed Bratton). That being said, a tweet drew me to this game and also my roommate, Andrew. He has been a loyal reader since Day 1, so I thought this would be a good place to give him a shoutout (he is a Montana alumn). The tweet that caught my eye mentioned that the Hornets have one of the best records against the spread in the country since New Year's Day at 9-2. One of Andrew's main betting theories is that everything always regresses back to the mean. So Sacramento State bettors have gotten lucky, and that their record will begin to regress back towards .500. The Kenpom backs this theory as Hornets are currently the 63rd luckiest team in the country. Their overall ranking at #307 shows that despite the luck, they are a very bad basketball team. Montana on the other hand does benefit nearly as much from luck (ranked at #282) but still have a respectable #185 overall rating. It is worth noting that the luck category makes the teams efficiency more accurate. So, Sacramento State is lucky, so there efficiency numbers go down, as it does truly evaluate how good or bad they are. Montana has a poor luck rating, but it adds to their efficiency ratings. Bettors are backing the Hornets tonight as they are receiving 65% of bets ATS. They must be aware of Sacramento State's insane spread record but have not considered that it is due to regress. Go with the Grizz tonight in Missoula and be proud that you believe in the power of regression.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 62-56-5 (+60 units)
February: 18-26-1 (-66 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0

Daily Three 2/15

  Hello,

  Well, we finally had a good night. The Rams and Oilers took care of business, and we were a mere few inches wide on a empty net attempt from getting a much-needed undefeated night. However, we will take 2-1 and continue to build our momentum. The NBA is looking weird tonight, so we are going back to college along with the ice. Let's do it.

 NHL
Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks -1.5, +190 (10 units wagered, 19 units won)

 Jaromir Jagr turns 45 today. Think about how remarkable that is. The guy has been playing in the NHL since before I was born (1991), and yet he is still playing on the first line for a playoff contending team. Jagr is such a legend, I tend to forget the most disappointing stretch of his career, which of course happened in Washington. I remember the day he was traded to Washington for Kris Beech (biggest bust in Caps history) and a couple of other journeymen.  I was at summer camp, and the resident sports news guy announced the trade by butchering the name of each player involved. Without any care for my social status for the rest of that summer, I stood up and shouted probably as loud as I ever have in my life. I have never heard the end of it, and honestly, it probably would have been worth it, if the Jagr actually performed in DC. Instead, he was sent to New York and is now known as another disappointing chapter of Capitals hockey. Anyway tonight, his young Panthers squad will head out west to take on the Sharks, who are coming off of a disappointing road trip. Despite the rough results on the east coast, the Sharks are a significantly better team at the Shark Tank where they are 18-7-1. Brent Burns is making his case for not only the Norris Trophy (best defenseman) but is also looking to become the first defenseman to win the Hart Trophy since Chris Pronger in 2000. Plus, do you think Jagr's body is going to respond well after a 6+ hour flight from South Florida? I do not think so. The Panthers will take a while to adjust to the time change and knock the cobwebs off from a long flight, and the Sharks will take advantage with a nice multi-goal victory.

NCAAB

 Xavier Musketeers at Providence Friars -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)

 Yes, at first glance, this spread is very surprising. The Musketeers are significantly higher than the Friars in the Kenpom, and they have much better wins this season. How can we possibly go with Providence? Well, the Musketeers are running out of bodies, and the bodies they are losing, happen to be their best plays. Myles Davis, who was stuck in purgatory for most of the season, was finally knocked out for the season a few weeks ago for a mix of disciplinary and personal issues. Two weeks ago, guard, Edmond Summer, suffered a season-ending injury for the second straight season. Now, news has come out that Xavier's best player Trevon Bluiett is doubtful for tonight's game with an ankle injury. Bluiett is a star and was supposed to take Xavier to the next level this season. However, the Musketeers have just been unable to live up to expectations. Despite the up and down year and Bluiett's status for tonight, the public still likes Xavier tonight as the majority of ATS bets are going with them. Still, the line continues to move in Providence's direction, and I think it is going to get all the way up to -5.5. This is a combination of the Bluiett's status and sharp money pouring in on the Friars. I am going to follow the money and make the surprising pick. The Friars will ball tonight as if Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil were still there.

Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)

 I have harped on regression with the Terps in the past, and I will continue to do so until their record starts to match their computer ratings. Maryland is now at 21-4, which is a remarkable record. Despite the many wins, the Kenpom is just not impressed with the Turtles. They are currently ranked at #38, and there is not a Power 6 team with as many losses as them below them in the rankings. 15-11 Clemson and 14-11 Wake Forest are still ranked ahead of them in these rankings. Also, they rank 53rd in the nation in terms of luck (there are 351 teams in the Kenpom rankings). There is no denying that they are talented, but at some point, there luck is going to run out and their record is going to regress in a way that better equates their record with their computer rankings. Tonight, they will go against a Northwestern team that is coming off of arguably the biggest win in program history (I know it is crazy that a Big Ten school's biggest win ever could come in February). The Wildcats shocked the world on Sunday by going into the Kohl Center and beating the previously #7 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. It may have been the win that gets them into their first NCAA tournament in school history, but I think they still have little more to prove. Tonight, they get another chance to build onto their resume against this Terrapin team that the public just seems to drool over. 64% of ATS spreads are on the Turtles, yet the line is not really moving at all. Sharp money must be keeping the spread, where it is. I'm sure the sharps love the higher Kenpom rating, and the hyped-up crowd that will be showing up in Evanston tonight to support the Cats. I think the Cats will put themselves even closer to hearing their name on Selection Sunday and get a big win over a Maryland team that is bound to regress back to the mean.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 61-54-5 (+71 units)
February: 17-24-1 (-55 units)
20 unit picks: 1-0

Daily Three 2/14

 Hello,

 June 8, 2010: In game 3 of the NBA Finals, Ray Allen goes 0-13 from the field, including 8 missed three point attempts, as the Boston Celtics go down to the Los Angeles Lakers 91-84.

 June 7, 2015: In game 2 of the NBA Finals, Stephen Curry had one of the worst shooting performances by an NBA MVP ever as he bricked 13 three point attempts in an Overtime loss to the vulnerable Cleveland Cavaliers.

 These two legends are the two of the greatest shooters to ever play the game, if not the two greatest ever. After these clunkers, the two went on to make huge shots that would propel themselves to NBA Finals lore, and ultimately the title of champion (Ray Allen did it years later with the Heat, Steph did it in the same year with the Warriors). These two guys had perhaps the worst games in their careers on the brightest stage, but did not fade away into the limelight. They understood a very simple phrase, "Shooters Shoot." They stuck to the motto and shot away. And now, they are the main attractions in a "How to shoot" video.

 Last night was definitely my most abysmal night since I began making these picks. None of the picks were even close, and honestly were quite embarassing. Despite I shame these picks may have brought upon me, just like Steph and Ray, and I have to continue to shoot. I will continue to push through this rough streak and will get back to the high level of performance that was seen in January. It's just, well, I am not throwing away my shot! Man, Hamilton is so culturally relevant. Anyway, we are going to be taking our shots at pucks and college baketball tonight, so let's turn things around.

NHL
Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils -1.5, +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won)

 G-D bless Jeremy Smith. Tonight, he will be making his NHL debut between the pipes for the Colorado Avalanche. It has been a long time coming for Smith, as he was drafted all the way back in 2007. Smith paraded around the AHL circuit for years playing for five teams before finally getting his shot tonight. While this is one of the better stories you will hear, it doesn't mean that he will have a good night against the Devils. The Avalanche have been abysmal all season. They have the league's worst goal differential and have lost 21 of their last 25 games. They are also playing their third game in four nights, all of them on in the New York metropolitan area, which is far away from home. If anything, the Avs will probably tighten it up a bit to protect their inexperienced keeper, so I am not expecting the Avs to be potent on offense (not like they would be if they tried). Taylor Hall and Co. should give Smith a icy welcome to the NHL, and the Devils should pound the Avs just like the rest of the league has done all season.

Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers -1.5, + 140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)

Wait, didn't we pick against the Coyotes last night, and they ended winning 5-0? Yes, yes we did. Haven't the Coyotes won 3 of 4 including wins over last year's Stanley Cup Championship participants. This is also true. So, why in the world would we go against them right now? Actually, it is pretty simple. The Coyotes are bound to regress back to normal tonight. As we highlighted last night, they have the second worst goal differential in the league, and the worst road record in the league. In yesterday's game, the Flames completely outplayed the Coyotes in the first period. The Flames outshot them by ten shots, but Mike Smith was just a brick wall. The 'Yotes sneaked a goal in there and went into the second period up a goal. In the second period, the third and fourth lines for Arizona turned into the top lines of Washington and Pittsburgh and produced at ridiculous rate that they surely cannot replicate tonight. Tonight, the Coyotes will be playing the second of a back-to-back with their backup goalie in freezing Alberta. Connor McDavid and crew are very aware of last night's result and will definitely be full throttle tonight in their brand new building. Expect a tired Coyotes team to regress back to their normal selves, as Edmonton is able to take advantage of a nice opportunity.

NCAAB
Colorado State Rams Pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Wyoming Cowboys

 This is Colorado State's coach, Larry Eustachy. Coach Eustachy was originally the coach at Iowa State, where he led the Cyclones to one of their best seasons in school history (of course they were upset by #15 Hampton that season, but still, a wonderful regular season). He was a successful head coach and the most important man in Ames, Iowa. Everything seemed to be going his way, and it looked like he would have a successful career at the Big 12 school. Then, controversy struck. One night after a game at the University of Missouri, pictures were taken of Eutaschy at a Fraernity Party. The pictures showed him kissing college-aged women and drinking beers with under-aged students. Iowa State's administration was rocked by Eustachy's actions and essentially forced him to resign. Although his character is, at best, questionable, one thing still rings true, he is a good basketball coach. Tonight he brings his squad into Laramie to take on the Cowboys, in a matchup where his team is clearly better. The Rams currently ranked in the top 100 at #98, while the Cowboys fall outside of that group at #149. The Rams are significantly much more efficient on both sides of the ball with way higher rankings in both categories than the Cowboys. Take the Rams here, as they continue to climb the Mountain West standings.

Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 59-53-5 (+57 Units)
February: 15-23-1 (-69 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0  

Daily Three 2/13

 Hello,

 Sorry for the lull over the weekend. An early flight along with some other activities made it tricky to make and write up effective picks. It is unacceptable on my part, and I will do my best to reduce this in the future. Tonight, we are back with picks from all across the sporting spectrum. So, let's do it.

 NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)

 The Flames are literally on fire. They have won 4 of their past 5 games, including nice wins against the Penguins and the Wild. The Flames have also already beaten the Coyotes four times this season, including two wins by multiple goals. The 'Yotes are a league worst 6-17-1 on the road and currently have the second worst goal differential in the league at -45. All signs point to a big victory for Calgary, so I am going to jump on it and get some value to boot.

NBA
Los Angles Clippers at Utah Jazz -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 In this battle between two hated NBA nicknames, I am once again going against the public. Currently, 70% of ATS bets are on the Clippers. I can understand why the public would jump on this spread. Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers are a very popular team. They still have high-flyers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan plus a championship coach in Doc Rivers. Any time the public can get this many points with LA, they are probably going to take it. However, the sharps side with me on this one. Despite the popularity following LA, the spread has actually moved up a point from -7 Jazz to -8 Jazz. There are a few things to consider when trying to figure out how the sharps pushed this line. First, the Jazz are a very good home team, sporting a 19-10 record in Salt Lake City. The Clippers aren't terrible on the road at 16-13 but playing in the high altitude definitely has an effect on players that do not normally play in those conditions. Second, the Jazz actually have a better record than the Clippers. Yes, it is only a half game difference, but I guarentee if you asked the casual NBA fan, which of these two teams is higher up in the standings, you would most likely hear, Clippers. Lastly and I think most importantly, the Jazz probably have the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, Playing in the mountains, many casual fans may not know the "Flying Frenchman," but he currently leads the league in blocks with 2.5 a game. LA's main source of offense comes from attacking the paint with Blake and DeAndre. Tonight, they are going to have a difficult time scoring inside with Gobert standing by ready to block everything in sight. I think Big Rudy will be the big difference tonight and will ultimately lead the Jazz to cover.

NCAAB
Baylor Bears -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

 We tried this with Kansas on Saturday, and it didn't work. Kansas was covering their -4.5 spread for most of the contest, and then ultimately faltered down the stretch. They did end up winning the game on the last possession but failed to cover the spread. Why would I go back down this path after coming up unsuccessful on Saturday? Well, Baylor is actually a more efficient team than Kansas according to the Kenpom. Baylor is ranked #7, while Kansas was ranked #9. Second, Baylor presents a much tougher challenge defensively than Kansas did. Baylor is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency compared to Kansas, who ranks pretty low for a top ten team at #41. Most importantly though, we are giving up less points than we did on Saturday. Sure, a possession really doesn't seem like a huge difference, but in a close game that could come down to the final play, 2 points really does matter. Baylor should continue to keep pace with Kansas in the Big 12 race and get a big W in Lubbock tonight.

Saturday: 2-4
Overall: 59-50-5 (+87 Units)
February: 15-20-1 (-39 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0

Daily Three (Times Two) 2/11

 Hello,

 We hit the big one last night. We rocked Vegas thanks to Ivy League efforts of the Penn Quakers. We lost the other two, but we should still be proud of our college basketball pick. It is a college basketball Saturday, so I am giving you six picks!!!! No write-ups, just lovely, luscious picks. Here they are.

NCAAB
Seton Hall Pirates -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at St. John's Red Storm

Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Kansas Jayhawks -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins

Butler Bulldogs -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Providence Friars

Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 57- 46-5 (+109 Units)
February: 13-16-1 (-17 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0

Daily Three 2/10

 Hello,

 Another rough 1-2 last night. The BYU game absolutely stunned me. Pepperdine really took advantage of the extra possessions and just scored at will. That was definitely their best game all season and will be remembered in the archives as the best game they played in the 2016-2017 season. Obviously, February has been much tougher on us than last month. However, I have the pick tonight that is going to turn the month around. We are hitting the ice and the hardwood on this wonderful Friday night.

NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild -1.5, +180 (10 units wagered, 18 units won)

 The Caps did it for us again last night, so we are going to stick to the theme of picking division leaders at home. The Wild are rolling right now and are getting production from all four lines. Coach, Bruce Boudreau, makes a habit of finding early success with new teams. If the Wild keep this pace, this will be third time that Boudreau has lead a team to a division title in his first full season with his new squad (he previously did it with the Capitals and Ducks). Also, the Wild have been dominant in St. Paul and even more so against the Atlantic Division (yes, the Lightning are in the Atlantic). The Wild are 17-6-1 at home and 9-1-0 against the Atlantic, which are really good indicators for tonight's matchup. The Lightning have been feeling the effects of two long playoff runs all season and will continue to be without key players tonight. Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan are obviously are already not playing tonight, and now, Tampa Bay beat reporters are tweeting that Tyler Johnson is probably going to be scratch tonight as well. I am going to go with the totally healthy Wild over the banged up Lightning and try to get some much needed value.

NBA
Chicago Bulls -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Phoenix Suns

 Living in Chicago, I constantly listen to Bulls' fans talk about how inept Gar Foreman and John Paxton are and how they wish they could go back to the days of Jordan and Pippen. It is worth noting that no city lives on the back of nostalgia more than the great city of Chicago, but they do seem to have a point the current state of the Bulls. They have a coach that likes to shoot threes or get baskets around the rim, yet they spent this offseason signing D-Wade, who has made his living as a great mid-range shooter, and Rajon Rondo, who likes to play in the half-court and oh yeah, cannot shoot. Yes, it does seem like the the two men in charge to not have good grasp on where this team should be headed, but it could be worse. The Bulls could have Ryan McDonough in charge. Who is Ryan McDonough? He is currently the man in charge of the dumpster fire that is the Phoenix Suns. What is his track record? Here are his first round picks: Alex Lin, Nemanja Nedovic, T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, Georgis Papagiannis, and Skal Labissiere (worth noting he traded the last two for current Sun forward, Marquese Chriss). Of this group, Booker and Chriss are the only two players that seem to have any potential to be consistent starters in the NBA, and Chriss might be a stretch. He created a situation where Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Isaiah Thomas were all fighting for time in the same backcourt. He decided the odd man out should be Thomas. That really worked out well for McDonough. Along with Thomas, he has also traded the Morris brothers, Marcin Gortat, and Goran Dragic, who have all become productive starters in their new locations. He also ran out John Hornacek, who was the only person that was able to make anything of McDonough's mess. It is amazing that McDonough is still running the organization, and things probably will not change for the Suns until he leaves. Anyway, Jimmy Butler looks like he will be back tonight in a pseudo-home game for the Bulls (Chicagoans move to Phoenix when they get old and buy season tickets just so they can see the Bulls the one time they play in Phoenix every year). I'm going with the Bulls tonight in the battle of poorly-run organizations.

NCAAB
Columbia Lions at Pennsylvania Quakers -3.5 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)

 As you can tell, the units that I am wagering in this game are higher than usual. I am not going to do this very often, but I feel the need to address something very important with this pick. I think that raising the stakes can help do that. In my stats at the end of each blog post, I will keep track of the record of each pick I make that involves over 10 units. In regards to the game at hand, Vegas is trying to lure you into make a sucker's bet. The first thing that you will notice when you look at both teams is their records. Columbia is 10-9 overall and 4-2 in conference, while Penn is 7-12 overall and 0-6 in conference. At first glance, the Lions look like the obvious pick. They have a winning record, overall, but more importantly to the naked eye, they have a very strong conference record, while Penn cannot even claim they have won an Ivy League game this year. Vegas wants you to look at the records and jump on Columbia. So far, the pubic has taken the bait. Thus far, 77% of bettors are taking the points with the Lions. That number is staggering and normally does not apply to road dogs in an Ivy League matchup. So, what information is the public missing and what does Vegas not want you to know? Well first, Penn is ranked significantly higher in the Kenpom rankings. Penn is a top-200 team at #188, while Columbia is ranked down at #222.  I am sure you are wondering, if Columbia has such a significantly better record than how can they be ranked so much lower than Penn. Well, Penn went out and challenged themselves in the non-coference slate, and their Ivy League schedule thus far has been much more challenging. Penn currently has an SOS that ranks at #105, while Columbia is an incredible 204 slots below them at #309. Penn got dealt an unlucky hand as 4 of their first 6 conference games were against the top 3 teams in the conference, including Princeton twice. Columbia has been beating up on cellar-dwellars in conference, which has really inflated their conference record to this point. The last thing I will mention, which ultimately could be the difference is the matchups on both sides of the floor. Penn's offense and Columbia's defense are both rather abysmal, and they rank nearly the same in terms of efficiency (Penn is 232 in offense, Columbia 230). However, when you change sides, Columbia's offense remains inefficient at #211, but Penn's defense rises to respectable at #145. Penn's defense is the only quality that any of these teams can tout about, and it should make a difference in tonight's game. I expect Penn to be able to slow down the pace of the game and make Colombia play their half-court offense, which they struggle in, as they try to play up-tempo as much as possible (top 90 in tempo in the country). Also, we got to give a little bit of an edge to Penn, because they get to call the Palestra their home building. It is one of the more underrated buildings in the country and is really a great setting for the Big 5 in Philly. So, let's rock the Palestra hard tonight Penn and rock Vegas even harder.

Edit: Line just moved to -4 in this game. Very good news for those that got it in at -3.5, and even if you take it now. The sharp money has moved the line. I am even more excited about this pick than I was before.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 56-44-5 (+111 units)
February: 12-14-1 (-15 units)

Daily Three 2/9

 Hello,

 A rough 1-2 slate last night. The Nevada Wolfpack are the real deal. They should definitely be on your radar when you making your bracket next month. I guess the public ended up being right jumping on Baylor and Denver, but we will just call that a case of fool's gold. Tonight, we going to hit the ice and the hardwood pretty hard. Very excited with our options, so let's get to it.

NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals -1.5, +117 (10 units wagered, 11.7 units won)

 You know how I feel about this Caps team. We are just going to keep rolling with them on home ice until we are proven otherwise. If you want an unbiased view on this game, I will pass it on to fellow blogger, Brandon. He has a good feel for this one, as well (However, they traditionally lose before the Conference Finals, man).

NCCAB
Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Lots of eyes are going to be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium as UNC and Duke renew their heated rivalry once again. However, my eyes will be glued in on another classic building on the west coast known as Pauley Pavilion, as the Oregon Ducks and UCLA Bruins battle during this week's segment of Pac 12 after dark. I have been fortunate enough to go to Pauley three times in my life, twice before the renovation and once after, and it is definitely one of the more historical sports arenas you will ever step foot in. All of the national title banners are hanging from the rafters, the great players that have stepped on that court like Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and of course the greatest coach possibly in the history of American sports, John Wooden, who patrolled the Bruins for ten national titles. It is a place with such a great legacy, and I get chills every time I have ever walked into that concourse. I cannot imagine what it will be like for the freshmen and other new-comer Ducks that will take their first steps on Nell and John Wooden Court. In terms of the actual game, this is going to be a battle of the tempos. The Ducks play at a rather slow pace, only generating 66.5 possessions a game. They like to use the shot clock and make sure that they go through their entire offensive set before getting a shot off. The Bruins are the complete opposite and like getting shots off early and often. UCLA is averaging around 74.5 possessions a game, which ranks as the tenth highest pace in the country. The biggest key for the Ducks on offense will be to make sure, they are getting efficient shot attempts and making sure the Bruins cannot get into transition. If they take poor shots and allow Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf to get easy boards, the Bruins will be off and running. Those two big men know where Lonzo Ball is at all times, and he is pretty much unstoppable if you give him open space. The biggest key for the Bruins will be to make the Ducks uncomfortable offensively and force quick, inefficient shot selection. If UCLA can jump out to an early lead, it might force the young Ducks to feel as if they need to play fast to keep up. If UCLA can get them to fall for this trap, this could be a cakewalk for the Bruins. Earlier this year, the Ducks beat the Bruins 89-87 on a crazy, buzzer-beating three by Oregon star, Dillion Brooks. UCLA had that game under control and were able to get Oregon to play way faster than they wanted to be playing. Tonight in Pauley, the home crowd will be roaring (no pun intended) and essentially helping push the pace of play. I think home court advantage is going to be a gigantic factor, as young college players normally get suckered into playing the home team's style of play. I'm going with the Pauley faithful in what should be a fun, high scoring affair in Westwood.

BYU Cougars -8.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Pepperdine Waves

 Bang bang. Bang bang. Bang bang. We got a late night hammer. Is Vegas really going to give us another gift concerning the Pepperdine Waves? The Cougars are currently ranked #73 in the Kenpom, while the Waves finally broke the top 300, Woooooo!!!!!! They are now #296. That is a remarkable 223 spot difference in the poll, which is a greater differential than the Waves had with the Dons last week in the game that we won. The two teams played earlier this year in Provo and the Cougars won 99-70. I mean, the Cougars should just wipe the floor with this Waves team who has struggled to stop anyone all year. They currently rank #311 in defensive efficiency. The Cougars offense isn't incredibly efficient offensively at #114, but they are the fourth fastest team in the country, averaging 76.7 possessions a game. If they just hit a two pointer on half of their possessions (76 possessions to be realistic about the actual amount of possessions you can have in a game), they would drop 76 points (yes sorry, that is obvious math). However, this team jacks up threes, averaging around 19 three pointers attempted a game. The Cougars are going to drop at least a Benjamin tonight, as we get more easy money off of Pepperdine. Also, don't feel too bad for the Waves, they can go hang out on the beach at Malibu after their loss.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 55-42-5 (+119.3 units)
February: 11-12-1 (-6.7 units)

Daily Three 2/8

 Hello,

 2-1 last night, but a very positive night in terms of units as we get back into positive units for the month thanks to the Washington Capitals, who blew out Carolina last night. We lucked out with an empty netter in the Wild-Jets game (if you want to call it lucking out, there were five goals scored in the first 30 minutes, just one in the last 30 minutes). Also something is clearly wrong with the Wildcats. It seemed last night as if the pressure of making the Big Dance was getting to them. Their next two games will pit them against Wisconsin and Maryland, so we should truly see why this squad is made of. Only one NHL game tonight, so we will be sticking strictly to the hardwood.

NBA
Denver Nuggets +3.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Atlanta Hawks

 This is a case of someone in Vegas with deep pockets knowing something that the general public does not. This game opened up with a spread of -5 favoring the Hawks. This spread already seems somewhat suspicious. The Nuggets are currently eight games under .500, while the Hawks are 8 games above that same mark. Denver will also be without two starters tonight in Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay. The public bought right into the injured Nuggets narrative and jumped on the Hawks. Currently, according to sports insights, a whopping 70% of the public are on the Hawks tonight, in terms of spread bets. Normally when the public is backing a team that much, we will see the spread move the other way. However, thanks to a couple few contraian bettors, the money seems to really be pouring in on the Nuggets. The spread has already moved down a point and a half and the odds keep tilting towards the Nuggets. I would not be shocked if this eventually got down to three. We are going to go with the formula of contrarian bet and sharp money and laugh at the unsuspecting public, when Wilson Chandler and the Nuggets cover this game.

NCAAB
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 We are going to take the same approach with this game that we just did with the Denver-Atlanta game. Currently, there are 61% of spread bets on Baylor. Despite Baylor's popularity, the spread has moved a half point at most books towards the Cowboys, and even a full point at others (spread opened at a point). What could the public be missing about the Cowboys. First, the Kenpom puts the Cowboys at #21. That is a pretty high number for a team that only received one vote in the AP Top 25 this week, which is definitely the first poll the general public uses to evaluate the quality of a college basketball team. Second, the public is probably thrown off by Oklahoma State's record. The Cowboys are currently 15-8, which definitely does not put them at the status of a world beater. However, it should be noted that the Cowboys have played the toughest schedule in the country and those teams have combined to have the greatest defensive efficiency of any set of opponents in the country. The fact that the Cowboys have gotten to seven games over .500 is quite the accomplishment considering what they have constantly faced on the other side of the court. The most astonishing thing about this squad, however, must be the fact that the Cowboys are the second most efficient offense in the country. Yes, efficiency is measured by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Cowboys have scored 124.5 points per 100 possessions just putting them 0.6 points short of first place, which is held by UCLA. Let's put into perspective what an incredible feat this is. UCLA, who has been deemed the most explosive offense in the country by almost every national college basketball media member, has been the most efficient offense by facing a schedule that ranks sub-100 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Cowboys have essentially gotten the same amount of production out of their offense, except they have faced the toughest defenses in the country on a night-to-night basis. Oklahoma State will be doing it again tonight against a Baylor squad that is the sixth most efficient defense in the nation. However, Jawun Evans and the rest of his squad have proven all year, they can score on pretty much anyone. I think Evans and his teammates will be looking to gain a little  respect from the national media and the public. I fully expect that the Cowboys will pull off the "upset" in the house that T. Boone Pickens built.

 UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolfpack -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 As I'm sure you remember, last week, we took a shot on a pretty low-profile game between the San Francisco Dons and the Pepperdine Waves. The Dons beat that spread by double digits, and we got one of our easier wins of the month, which has definitely had its stressful spots. Tonight, I am getting the same vibe in this Mountain West showdown. In Nevada, we got ourselves a top 75 Kenpom squad, while UNLV is a terrible sub-200 Kenpom team. The Wolfpack are in top 55 in terms of offensive efficiency, while the Rebels are sub-250 ranked team in that same category. The numbers just seem to say that the Wolfpack will score on the Rebels at will and that the Rebels will be able to keep up, as they struggle to put the ball in the basket. Expect a massive blowout in Reno tonight, as the Pack continue to keep base with Boise State atop the Mountain West standings.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 54-40-5 (+130.3 units)
February: 10-10-1 (+4.3 units)

Daily Three 2/7

 Hello,

 Man, this can be a brutal business sometimes. I thought we were headed to a nice 3-0 night, and then Lebron pulled off the incredible. All is good though, we righted the ship last night at 2-1. We will try to build on that tonight with NHL games and a college basketball showdown in Evanston.

NCAAB
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats -5.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 This spread is actually mind-boggling. Like, actually I am very confused. Northwestern is a very good basketball team and is on the verge of making their first NCAA tournament in school history (they are the last Power 6 conference school to have never made the Big Dance). Despite Northwestern's successes so far this year, I am more shocked due to how bad the Illini are. Illinois are currently second to last in the Big Ten, and they are 0-5 in conference road games. Illinois has been a chaotic program under John Groce's watch, and you really have to feel bad for a guy like Malcolm Hill who has been the lone bright spot on this team. Hill won't be enough tonight in Evanston, as the Wildcats continue to add to their pretty solid resume with a big intrastate win.

NHL
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals -1.5, +150 (units wagered 10, 15 units won)

 This is just a great opportunity to cash in with some value. It is obvious, the Washington Capitals are a better hockey team than the Carolina Hurricanes. It is also well-known that the Caps barely lose on their home-ice. In their last seven home games, the Caps have won outscored opponents by an insane 37-6 margin. One of those game seven games was against this same Hurricanes team. DC won 6-1 that night with starting goalie, Cam Ward, in net for the Canes. Tonight, Carolina will send out backup, Eddie Lack. This could get really ugly. Take the Caps here, as this a great opportunity to eliminate juice and win more than you wagered.

Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets Over 5.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 We have found the Winnipeg Jets in this spot before, and we will attack it again. The Jets are just sieves. They have serious issues on their blue line, and their goaltending has just been atrocious. Despite their defensive issues, their top two lines can really put the puck in the net. The Ehlers-Little-Laine line has been incredibly productive over the past couple of weeks. Being at home tonight will greatly benefit them as the coach, Paul Maurice, will be able to find aways to get them against less defensively-capable lines on Minnesota. In hockey, the road team changes first, so the home team has a great advantage as they can typically matchup whatever lines they want to in any situation after a whistle. This edge will definitely give the Jets more opportunities to score against a fairly defensively sound Wild team. Although the Wild have been pretty good in their own end, first half hero, Devan Dubnyk has been playing at nowhere close to the level that he playing at in the first three months of the season. His monthly GAA went above 2 for the first time and in 2 starts so far this month, he has 4.00 GAA and a save percentage below .900. As I'm sure you can tell, that is not very good. I think both teams will have no issues lighting the lamp tonight and will easily get us over the 5.5 goal threshold.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 52-39-5 (+116.3 units)
February: 8-9-1 (-10.3 units)

Daily Three 2/6

 Hello,

 Well, I guess if you needed more proof that you should never bet against the Patriots, last night was probably all you needed. Tom Brady and James White led the greatest comeback in NFL history to get us of the "schneid." I am still shocked that Joe Buck did not mention lacrosse once last night. Chris Hogan did have a very quiet, but it could have come up on any of the few catches he did make. I think Buck was aware of the props and did his best to not mention things that were placed in them. For example, this is really my fault, apparently, Buck went on Howard Stern last week and straight-up said he would not use the nickname "Matty Ice." I totally missed that until this morning, and so that would have been an easy prop bet win. Shows what can happen with a little research, I am sorry for the oversight and will do my best to reduce it in the future. Tonight, we hit up all three major sports, so let's do it.

NBA 
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Man, have I been waiting to tell you about the nickname of the Washington basketball franchise. The Wizards used to play in Baltimore where they were originally called the Bullets. The team was named after a nearby ammunition factory in the city. Baltimore is also home to the great Fort McHenry, where our wonderful national anthem was written by Francis Scott Key (doesn't entirely have to do with the nickname, but there were bullets used during the battle that inspired the song). In 1973, the team drove down to the Baltimore-Washington Parkway and set up shop in Landover to become the Washington Bullets. The team decided to keep the nickname and hoped that Baltimore would still embrace the team even though it was moving a bit down south. 23 years later, team owner, Abe Pollin (RIP), decided that the team name had very violent overtones and set a terrible example for a family-friendly business. He also felt that the name hit too close to home as the DC area was going through record-high homicide and shooting rates. He decided to change it to the Wizards as he felt, yes this is actually real, "The name depicts energy and an omnipresent power, and brings to light what is hoped to be the wise and magical nature of the team" (Wizards website). I love Abe Pollin. He is the reason why the Washington Capitals, and I am so very grateful for that. But c'mon man, the team just needs a better name. Since the name change, the team has never gotten past the second round of the playoffs or even won their division. Despite the many struggles, things look like they may finally be taking a turn. The Wizards are currently in first place in the Southeast division and have won 17 straight home games. The recent turn in their production has really had to do with the fact that coach, Scott Brooks, no longer trusts his bench. Like actually, the Wizards play their starters almost the entire game. The only guy on the bench that gets significant run at this time is former Kansas forward, Kelly Oubre. Jr. This choice from Brooks make sense. According to a very nice Ringer article today, The Wizards starting five is the third most productive in the league behind the Warriors and the Clippers. Eventually, the Wiz Kids are probably going to have to get a little depth, but for the time being, the squad is rolling. I know the Cavs can be intimidating, but I think this home streak is going to continue. Wall, Beal, and Porter will probably play upwards of 40 minutes tonight, and the new big 3 in DC, will push them to another big victory at the Phone Booth. .

NCAAB
Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 If we are looking at the Kenpom only, this would be a ridiculous pick to take. Louisville is currently ranked #2, while Virginia is ranked #3. However, the Kenpom does not give us the full picture tonight. The Cardinals will be without four players tonight, including three of their top five scorers. The fourth guy is a role player that doesn't do that much but still sees time on the court. The Cardinals are already going to have their hands full going into Charlottesville as the Wahoos have won four of the last five meetings and currently have the third most efficient defense in the country . Now, they have to find away to replace the 35 points a game that these four dudes bring to the table each day. I think it is too much to ask of this Louisville squad to go into a raucous environment like John Paul Jones arena and keep this game competitive without such key members of their roster. I'm going all-in with the Cavs, as Tony Bennett continues his winning ways over Rick Pitino and the Cards. 

NHL
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils -120 (10 units wagered, 8.3 units won)

 I'm banking on the duo of Taylor Hall and Cory Schneider tonight in Newark. Taylor Hall was involved in of the more shocking offseason trades as he was shipped out of Edmonton for defenseman Adam Larsson. Ever since the departures of Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise, the Devils have lacked a true playmaker that could create goals for himself and others. Feeling like they had enough depth on the back end, they gave up a solid blue liner for a former number one pick in Hall, and Hall has not disappointed. Hall leads the team in points and assists and is only one goal behind the team lead for goals. Imagine how little production this team would be getting offensively if the team had not acquired Hall. Expect Hall to get a couple of points tonight. While Hall will be manning the offensive effort, Schneider will be in between the pipes for New Jersey. Schneider has had much recent success against the Sabres winning five of his last six games against Buffalo. Along with this recent success, Schneider is also traditionally better in the Prudential Center than he is on the road. He currently has 10-5-3 record at home, and I think he is going to be able to make it 11 wins. Watch the Devils tonight as they complete the season sweep of the Buffalo Sabres. 

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 50-38-5 (+109 units)
February: 6-8-1 (-17 Units)

Daily Three 2/5

  Hello,

  So, another rough day. It is unfortunate, but we shall move on. Today is obviously the Super Bowl, so we are going to have a little fun. There are going to be a couple of prop bets, and then a pick on the actual result of the game. So, let's go.

NFL
Over 2.5 times "Matty Ice" is mentioned during the broadcast (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

There are just so many situations where Joe Buck can call Matt Ryan "Matty Ice." Just imagine all of the times the Patriots D-Line will cause some pressure, but Matt will keep his cool and show off his excellent pocket presence. A perfect time for the nickname to be used. It could be used when he throws touchdowns, scrambles for a nice run, or makes a sick 4th quarter comeback. I think we will be hearing "Matty Ice" a ton tonight.

Lacrosse will be mentioned during the broadcast tonight (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 The real prop bet should be who they are going to refer to when they talk about lacrosse. Patriots wide receiver, Chris Hogan, played lacrosse at Penn State for four years before playing football for a year at Monmouth. Bill Belichick is an avid lacrosse fan, constantly following Johns Hopkins, and his son played lacrosse in college. I would make this the lock of the month, but I want to save it for a random weeknight to spice up your week. Lax is life, and the bros will be happy to hear it tonight.

Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 You have probably heard everything about these two teams over the past two weeks, so I am not going to say very much at all, as it would be a waste of your time. The only thing i will say is that there is one cardinal rule in betting at the moment (well, two if you include never betting on Western Michigan basketball game). Never bet against the Patriots. I will follow the rule and sail to victory.

Yesterday: 0-2-1
Overall: 49-36-5 (+120 units)
February: 5-6-1 (-6 units)

Daily Three 2/4

 Hello,

 So yeah, it happened again. Western Michigan was up 18 at one point yesterday in their game against Central Michigan and managed to lose by 4. It is what it is. Bad luck happens, and I am sure we will benefit from something today that is rather unfair for another better. This is the game, and we are just trying to beat it. In a month of writing this blog, we had our first 0-3 day. I'm happy to say it took a pretty long time, and we will look to have it never happen again. Only three picks today, but all college basketball on this jam-packed saturday.
NCAAB
Purdue Boilermakers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins

The Maryland Terrapins are 20-2. Normally when a Big 10 team is 20-2, we praise its talents and list it as a National Title contender. The Turtles are the mere exception. Despite winning basketball games, advanced metrics are not very impressed with this team. They are currently ranked 38 in the Kenpom. Teams that are ranked above them: 13-8 Clemson, 13-9 Wake Forest, 13-9 Tennessee, 14-8 Marquette. The Illinois State Redbirds are a Missouri Valley team with a worse record than the Terps and are only placed one spot below Maryland. This team has really benefited in close games (ranked 17 in luck according to Kenpom), and it must be noted how this team is able to pull through in these situations. However, this incredible run of winning close games has to end at some point. Toady, they get their first real challenge in Big Ten play against Purdue, who despite having a worse record is 26 slots ahead of Maryland in Kenpom. I think the luck runs out today, and the Boilermakers get a big win on the road.

Seton Hall Pirates at Georgetown Hoyas -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 These two teams are literally side by side in the Kenpom ratings. There are really only two things separating these two teams today going into their matchup: home court advantage and the fact that the Hoyas are scorching hot, while the Pirates are Arctic freezing. The Hoyas, who got off to a rough stet in conference, have won their last three games including big wins against Creighton and Butler (on the road). The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 and are currently looking for answers to their serious issues. I think the will continue to search after today's game as G'town's two headed monster, LJ Peak and Rodney Pryor take care of business today at the Phone Booth.

Utah Utes -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Stanford Cardinal

 I am simply going to use the transitive property here. Earlier this season, the Utes defeated the Colorado Buffaloes by double digits. On Thursday, the Buffaloes defeated the Cardinal by 7 in Palo Alto. From both of these results, we can conclude that the Utes should beat the Cardinal pretty handedly. If we need some advanced metrics to convince you, Utah is currently 40 in the Kenpom, while Stanford is 112. Don't overthink it, just take Utah in this game.

Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 49-34-4 (+140 units)
February: 5-4 (+14 units)

Daily Three 2/3

 Hello,

Yesterday, we went 2-1 with a rough OT loss in Buffalo. We dug deep in college, and we were rewarded for our work. Tonight, we will go into NHL, NCAAB, and NBA to get our three picks

NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won) at Pittsburgh Penguins

Tonight, we got a good battle between the NHL's best division's second and third best teams. In what order, we are not sure about yet. What we do know is that this will most likely be a preview of a first round matchup in April. I must say it is rather unfortunate that the NHL has created this playoff format. Essentially, each division has their own playoffs. So, teams in stronger divisions, like the Metropolitan get a tough draw, while the teams in weaker divisions, like the Pacific, get a way easier path to their conference final. If the format was simply division champions get the top two slots, and then after that it is best record, the Penguins and Blue Jackets would get easier matchups. At the time the playoff format was announced, I understood the reasoning behind it. After banking on many years of legendary Ovechkin-Crosby playoff matchups, the league only got one in the duo's first ten years in the league. Looking to build fierce regional rivalries, the league created the format to get classic matchups like in the good ole' Patrick Division days. However, the format has punished stronger divisions for being good, and the league should just revert to old form of seeding. Anyway, the Blue Jackets dominated the Penguins 7-1 in their only previous meeting this season. Along with the previous result, the Penguins will also be without star, Evgeni Malkin, Connor Sheary, and Matt Cullen tonight. That is a lot of firepower the Pens will have to make up for. The Pens are good on home ice but not invincible. The slumping St. Louis Blues shutout the Pens in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago with Carter Hutton in goal. Carter Hutton!!! I like the value we are getting with one of the best teams in the league this year against a team that is missing key pieces tonight. Go with Columbus tonight.

NCAAB
Western Michigan Broncos +3 (units wagered 10, units won 9) at Central Michigan Chippewas

 Logic defies this pick. Central Michigan has the highest scorer in the country in 5'9'' guard, Marcus Keene, and are rated slightly higher in the Kenpom than Western Michigan. However, the spread opened up at -4.5 in favor of CMU and has now moved all the way down to -3 in favor of CMU. Not only that, but the the line has moved so drastically despite the fact that 85% of spread bets are on the Chippewas. This is the same exact situation that we were put in with the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday against this same Western Michigan team. There is some sort of voodoo surrounding this team, and I am going to follow them the rest of the year to try and figure it out. I'm going with the sharp money here and taking the Broncos in their directional battle.

NBA
Memphis Grizzlies pick em' (10 units wagered 9 units won) at Oklahoma City Thunder

 Many people will fall for the Russell Westbrook effect when betting on the Thunder. Yes, Russ is a freak and is probably the most athletic man in the NBA (I guess Lebron could make a nice argument against that claim). Yes, Russ is nearly averaging a triple-double a game as well but look who he has around him on his roster. His other starting 4 are Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, and Domantas Sabonis (who was one of my favorite players in college last season at Gonzaga. I really hope he turns into something special at this level). That is not very inspiring stuff against legit NBA rosters, like that of the Memphis Grizzlies. The guy going head-to-head with Westbrook will be Mike Conley. Many people scoffed when Conley became the highest-paid player in the league this past offseason. Although he is not the best player in the league, it is worth noting that he is quietly having a wonderful season and has the Memphis Grizzlies rolling. The Grizz have won three straight games and are starting to challenge for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Thunder are starting to fade, having lost three straight games and struggling to be competitive against quality opponents. I am going with fire over ice in this one and taking the Grizz to come out victorious in OKC.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 49-31-4 (+170 units)
February: 5-1 (+44 units)