Daily Three 2/10

 Hello,

 Another rough 1-2 last night. The BYU game absolutely stunned me. Pepperdine really took advantage of the extra possessions and just scored at will. That was definitely their best game all season and will be remembered in the archives as the best game they played in the 2016-2017 season. Obviously, February has been much tougher on us than last month. However, I have the pick tonight that is going to turn the month around. We are hitting the ice and the hardwood on this wonderful Friday night.

NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild -1.5, +180 (10 units wagered, 18 units won)

 The Caps did it for us again last night, so we are going to stick to the theme of picking division leaders at home. The Wild are rolling right now and are getting production from all four lines. Coach, Bruce Boudreau, makes a habit of finding early success with new teams. If the Wild keep this pace, this will be third time that Boudreau has lead a team to a division title in his first full season with his new squad (he previously did it with the Capitals and Ducks). Also, the Wild have been dominant in St. Paul and even more so against the Atlantic Division (yes, the Lightning are in the Atlantic). The Wild are 17-6-1 at home and 9-1-0 against the Atlantic, which are really good indicators for tonight's matchup. The Lightning have been feeling the effects of two long playoff runs all season and will continue to be without key players tonight. Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan are obviously are already not playing tonight, and now, Tampa Bay beat reporters are tweeting that Tyler Johnson is probably going to be scratch tonight as well. I am going to go with the totally healthy Wild over the banged up Lightning and try to get some much needed value.

NBA
Chicago Bulls -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Phoenix Suns

 Living in Chicago, I constantly listen to Bulls' fans talk about how inept Gar Foreman and John Paxton are and how they wish they could go back to the days of Jordan and Pippen. It is worth noting that no city lives on the back of nostalgia more than the great city of Chicago, but they do seem to have a point the current state of the Bulls. They have a coach that likes to shoot threes or get baskets around the rim, yet they spent this offseason signing D-Wade, who has made his living as a great mid-range shooter, and Rajon Rondo, who likes to play in the half-court and oh yeah, cannot shoot. Yes, it does seem like the the two men in charge to not have good grasp on where this team should be headed, but it could be worse. The Bulls could have Ryan McDonough in charge. Who is Ryan McDonough? He is currently the man in charge of the dumpster fire that is the Phoenix Suns. What is his track record? Here are his first round picks: Alex Lin, Nemanja Nedovic, T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, Georgis Papagiannis, and Skal Labissiere (worth noting he traded the last two for current Sun forward, Marquese Chriss). Of this group, Booker and Chriss are the only two players that seem to have any potential to be consistent starters in the NBA, and Chriss might be a stretch. He created a situation where Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Isaiah Thomas were all fighting for time in the same backcourt. He decided the odd man out should be Thomas. That really worked out well for McDonough. Along with Thomas, he has also traded the Morris brothers, Marcin Gortat, and Goran Dragic, who have all become productive starters in their new locations. He also ran out John Hornacek, who was the only person that was able to make anything of McDonough's mess. It is amazing that McDonough is still running the organization, and things probably will not change for the Suns until he leaves. Anyway, Jimmy Butler looks like he will be back tonight in a pseudo-home game for the Bulls (Chicagoans move to Phoenix when they get old and buy season tickets just so they can see the Bulls the one time they play in Phoenix every year). I'm going with the Bulls tonight in the battle of poorly-run organizations.

NCAAB
Columbia Lions at Pennsylvania Quakers -3.5 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)

 As you can tell, the units that I am wagering in this game are higher than usual. I am not going to do this very often, but I feel the need to address something very important with this pick. I think that raising the stakes can help do that. In my stats at the end of each blog post, I will keep track of the record of each pick I make that involves over 10 units. In regards to the game at hand, Vegas is trying to lure you into make a sucker's bet. The first thing that you will notice when you look at both teams is their records. Columbia is 10-9 overall and 4-2 in conference, while Penn is 7-12 overall and 0-6 in conference. At first glance, the Lions look like the obvious pick. They have a winning record, overall, but more importantly to the naked eye, they have a very strong conference record, while Penn cannot even claim they have won an Ivy League game this year. Vegas wants you to look at the records and jump on Columbia. So far, the pubic has taken the bait. Thus far, 77% of bettors are taking the points with the Lions. That number is staggering and normally does not apply to road dogs in an Ivy League matchup. So, what information is the public missing and what does Vegas not want you to know? Well first, Penn is ranked significantly higher in the Kenpom rankings. Penn is a top-200 team at #188, while Columbia is ranked down at #222.  I am sure you are wondering, if Columbia has such a significantly better record than how can they be ranked so much lower than Penn. Well, Penn went out and challenged themselves in the non-coference slate, and their Ivy League schedule thus far has been much more challenging. Penn currently has an SOS that ranks at #105, while Columbia is an incredible 204 slots below them at #309. Penn got dealt an unlucky hand as 4 of their first 6 conference games were against the top 3 teams in the conference, including Princeton twice. Columbia has been beating up on cellar-dwellars in conference, which has really inflated their conference record to this point. The last thing I will mention, which ultimately could be the difference is the matchups on both sides of the floor. Penn's offense and Columbia's defense are both rather abysmal, and they rank nearly the same in terms of efficiency (Penn is 232 in offense, Columbia 230). However, when you change sides, Columbia's offense remains inefficient at #211, but Penn's defense rises to respectable at #145. Penn's defense is the only quality that any of these teams can tout about, and it should make a difference in tonight's game. I expect Penn to be able to slow down the pace of the game and make Colombia play their half-court offense, which they struggle in, as they try to play up-tempo as much as possible (top 90 in tempo in the country). Also, we got to give a little bit of an edge to Penn, because they get to call the Palestra their home building. It is one of the more underrated buildings in the country and is really a great setting for the Big 5 in Philly. So, let's rock the Palestra hard tonight Penn and rock Vegas even harder.

Edit: Line just moved to -4 in this game. Very good news for those that got it in at -3.5, and even if you take it now. The sharp money has moved the line. I am even more excited about this pick than I was before.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 56-44-5 (+111 units)
February: 12-14-1 (-15 units)