Hello,
We are back at it tonight after a nice 2-1 effort yesterday. Texas Tech came through and pulled off the big upset, outright, against West Virginia, and the just like we predicted, the Heat were undermanned and outperformed by the host Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately, Tennessee could not hold onto a double digit lead against Arkansas, and they would end up losing the game, let alone failing to cover. However, we move onto tonight, where we have four plays that should be nice plays (1 NHL, 1 NBA, 2 NCAAB). So, let's get to it.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-1.5, +195)
Well, tonight I will take my first shot with the NHL. Normally, I do not like playing the puck line. Giving a team a goal and a half is risky and if the team you choose gets behind early, they have to dig themselves out of a pretty big hole. However, I think the Ducks provide with some value tonight, so I will take the chance. Detroit is flying cross country into Anaheim after losing in the Centennial Classic on New Years Day against Auston Matthews and the Leafs. They also will be playing tonight in the first of the a back-to-back set, as they will be in LA tomorrow night to face the Kings. One would think they may be thinking ahead to LA and also may be looking to keep a little in the tank for the game tomorrow. Yes, there are a couple of concerns on the Ducks' side. Star center, Ryan Getzlaf, has been ruled out of tonight's game with a lower-body injury. However, their American Ryan, Ryan Kesler, has proven to be their best player all year and will have no issues centering the first line and the first power play unit. Also, some may look back at their previous meeting and note that the Red Wings won 6-4 at the Joe. Despite the loss, it must be noted that Anaheim put out well-known human sieve, Jonathan Bernier, and as you can imagine, it did not end well for the Ducks. Tonight, it looks like John Gibson will man the crease. Fun fact, John Gibson was the starting goalie for the United States the last time they won the World Junior Championships. What do you know, the US are playing in the WJC semis today and look to have a good chance at winning it all this year. Sorry, not that relevant, but felt the need to give a shoutout to the US squad in Montreal. Anyway, puck line picks will not be found very often but take a chance on this one, it should hit.
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets -2
In tonight's NBA action, we head out east to Charlotte where the Russell Westbrook and the Thunder will take on Kemba Walker and the Hornets. As we can expect, the masses normally line up to take the "Human Triple-Double" Westbrook and the Thunder. Who can play them? It is pretty hard to bet against a guy who goes out there and consistently puts up ridiculous numbers. This is incredibly relevant today as the spread as dropped from it's opening line of Hornets -3.5 to Hornets -2. For you English majors out there, that is a full 1 and half point drop, which is rather significant. Now, remember yesterday, during our discussion of West Virginia/Texas Tech, we talked about reverse line movement. The line for that game continued to shrink from its opening line of West Virginia -4 all the way down to West Virginia -2, even though a majority of the bets were placed on the Mountaineers. Sharps were all over Texas Tech, and they delivered as I mentioned earlier, Texas Tech not only covered but won the game. Now, the movement in this game does not appear to be a result of reverse line movement, but rather, just the public money pushing the spread. Sharps must be split on what will happen in this game or do not have much interest. However, I do. The Hornets are significantly better home team than road team for real (11-7 home, 8-9 road real). Also, it is just a known fact the Kemba is a straight baller in the Spectrum Centre. The Thunder struggle on the road, especially when they are road dogs (3-6). Don't fall for the Russell trap and take the points that the public have gifted you with the Hornets.
NCAAB
South Carolina at Georgia -2.5
Something with college basketball and spreads at 2.5. In this matchup, Frank Martin will lead his Gamecocks into Athens to face Mark Fox and the Bulldogs. This should be a very closely contested SEC battle between two well-coached teams. Both teams are rated fairly even. South Carolina has a Ken Pom rating at 40, while Georgia is at 50 and their efficiency ratings are only two points apart, so home court will wash that out. Both teams play at fairly even tempos and do have a common opponent in their Non-Conference schedule, Clemson, who they both lost too (USC lost by 2 at home, Georgia lost by 10 at home). This should be a fairly hard-fought, close game that I think will be decided by the play of one man, Yante Maten. Maten, who is averaging 20 points and 8 boards a game, has easily been one of the most underrated players in the country thus far. His improvement since his freshman year has been phenomenal, and he can singlehandedly impact the direction of a game for the Dawgs. If he gets into early foul trouble, it could spell trouble for Georgia. However, I do not think that South Carolina has nearly enough of an inside presence to provide much issue to Maten. It also doesn't have a sharpshooter like J.J. Frazier to dish balls out to for open treys. It is worth noting that South Carolina will be getting back Sindarius Thornwell back from suspension today. The Gamecocks had lost three games during his suspension and were undefeated when Thornwell was active. However, I think it will take a game or two for him to get back his minutes and his peak performance. Go with the Bulldogs at home and let Maten carry you to victory.
Rutgers at Michigan State -13
If this game was being played at the same time last year with this spread, it would be the biggest college basketball lock of the year. However, this year things are much more complicated. As many know, the Spartans have gotten off to rough start this season. With an extremely difficult non-conference slate, the Spartans struggled to win games and played so bad, Tom Izzo apologized to his players for putting them in such a tough situation. Despite the rough stretch, things are starting to turn around in East Lansing. MSU had a huge come-behind overtime victory up at The Barn in Minneapolis that in March we may look back and say was turning point in their season. They also got a big home victory against a solid Northwestern squad and are already off to a nice 2-0 start in conference. Now, they will get an even bigger boost tonight as Miles Bridges will be returning from injury. Bridges, one of the most hyped freshmen in the country, has sort of fallen behind the wave of Josh Jackson, Markelle Fultz, and Lorenzo Ball due to his injury. However, with his return, he will look to reinsert himself back into the conversation of best underclassmen in the country. There isn't too much to say about Rutgers. They got a new coach, started off the schedule with a ridiculously easy non-conference, and somehow started the year 11-1. It was really nice, and people started to get a little excited for the Rutgers program. However, after their nice start, they started playing Power 6 teams and resumed their losing ways. I will give the new coach a little credit, the players have seemed to respond to him and are playing as a much more cohesive unit than they ever did under the incompetent Eddie Jordan. Maybe this coach can make something of this program, but now is not the time, and the Scarlet Knights will finish under .500 despite their nice start. No need for Ken Pom ratings or efficiency evaluations in this one, just take the Spartans and be happy for the friendly line.
Last night: 2-1
Overall: 2-1
No comments:
Post a Comment