Saturday, January 7, 2017

Daily Three 1/7 Part 1

  Hello,

  Yesterday, we were once again very close to completing an undefeated day but just fell short. With a late free throw, Dayton just beat the spread and beat Rhode Island by 3 points. I also apologize for some faulty analysis in that game. Star, Charles Cooke, did not play for the second straight game with  a hamstring injury. Fortunately, the Flyers were able to pull through anyway. The Lakers absolutely destroyed the undermanned Heat. We were probably helped by Goran Dragic's ejection in the third quarter, but we take what we can get in this business. Unfortunately, the loss came in the NHL, where the Ducks were only able to win by a goal. This is why the puck line is so risky. The Ducks were clearly the better team on the ice last night, but they needed overtime to get the job done. Also, Mike Smith, I know you are very crafty handling the puck but why are you playing around in front of the goal in overtime.

  Anyway, I am going to try something a little different today. Saturdays are essentially made for college basketball for the first three months of the year. There are so many games, thus, there is a lot of opportunity for value. I am going to do two Daily Threes today, one devoted to college basketball and one normal one with three picks. Fortunately, there is an NFL game today, so I will replace the college basketball pick with football. So, here is the first part, NHL, NBA, and NFL.

NHL
Minnesota Wild +115 at Los Angeles Kings

Today, we will start off in La La Land (great movie) as the Minnesota Wild face off against the LA Kings. This year's version of the Wild are barely recognizable compared to years past. The Wild, who traditionally struggle winning on the road and scoring both at home and on the road, have been exceptional away from Xcel Energy Center and are scoring goals at will. They are currently sporting an 11-5-4 on the road compared to a mediocre 17-17-7 record last year. Also, they currently lead the Western Conference in goals with 118 goals, what? They share the same conference as teams that include Patrick Kane, Vladamir Tarasenko, and Joe Pavelski. Their star, Zach Parise, has missed significant time this year, and they are still scoring at will. This recent surge in scoring and success can in large part be attributed to new coach Bruce Boudreau, who has a reputation for immediately implementing his run n' gun style and turning it into success right away. This style is the total opposite of their opponents who like to clog up the neutral zone and are very reliant on blocking shots. The Kings are much happier with 2-1 victories than 6-5, and at times, they can be taxing for the casual fan to watch. However, I think that the new and improved Minnesota Wild will take it to them today. The Kings have been fighting to keep pace without star goalie Jonathan Quick all year. LA has not announced a starter yet for this afternoon's game, but it should not matter. Both Peter Budaj and Jeff Zatakof are long-time journeymen who do not have the ability to take over games. It is worth noting that the Wild will be starting backup Darcy Kuemper this afternoon. No worries, he is a competent goalie and having some goals in this game may help the Wild play at their pace rather than that of the home team. Also, the Wild are hot. The Wild recently had a twelve game winning streak snapped by the other hottest team in the league, the Blue Jackets. Then thursday night, they went out and beat the Sharks in the Shark Tank, one of the hardest places to win in the league. LA is also a hard place to win, but it can definitely be done, as highlighted by the 4-0 win by the Red Wings on Thursday in the Staples Center. Go bold here and take the Wild on the road to get the job done against LA.

NBA
Detroit Pistons at Portland Trail Blazers -3.5

The Portland Trail Blazers did not have the best December. They really faltered with a 4-11 record for the month and lost Damian Lillard for a period of time. However, with the change in the calendar, it seems that is back to business as usual in Portland. Dame is back, and the Blazers have started the new year off right with wins over Minnesota and the Lakers and a hard fought loss in Golden State. They also managed to cover all three games. Detroit is also off to a 2-1 start to the year, however as we witnessed the other night, this team appears to be mess on the defensive end of the floor. In blowing an 18 point quarter lead to the Hornets (only to win on a questionable call), the Pistons gave up 43 fourth quarter points, 43!!! If they had allowed that many points in the other three quarters, they would have allowed 172 points. In the game before Charlotte, the Pistons gave up 121 points to a Pacers team that is not known for their offensive prowess. Now, they have to fly across the country to play against what is arguably the best offensive backcourt in the league (Dame and C.J. Mccollum). Also, the Pistons are 7-12 against the spread on the road and 4-9 as road dogs. The Blazers aren't exactly impressive with an 8-9 record against the spread at home. They make up for it as home favorites as they are 7-5, and they have also covered 5 of their last 6 games. The Pistons have covered in 2 of their last 6 games. I think this line is completely ludicrous. I am all over the Blazers, and you should be too.

NFL
Detroit Lions +9 at Seattle Seahawks

As the NFL playoffs begin today, I will take my first foray into the NFL. I am going to start by saying something wildly unpopular. Ready, the Seattle Seahawks are overrated! I can picture you spitting out your coffee onto the screen and screaming "Whoa, he is crazy." Guess what, I am not. Since Thanksgiving weekend, the Seahawks are a medicare 3-3 with bad losses to the Bucs and to the Cardinals at home. Yeah, the vaunted 12th man can be silenced. In all of these games, with the mere exception of the Carolina game, the offense has been rather blasé, and they have struggled to get any running game going at all. Also, the injury to Earl Thomas has been devastating to their defense. The only game he played in during this stretch, they won 40-7 over aforementioned Carolina. Since the injury, their two victories have come over two of the three worst teams in the NFL, the Rams and the 49ers (the Niners game was even close). In their two losses after the Earl Thomas injury, the defense has been absolutely flattened to the tune of 38 points from Aaron Rodgers and the Packers and 34 points from Carson Palmer and the Cardinals. Who can tell me the difference between Green Bay and Arizona compared to LA and San Francisco, oh wait, I know, the former have competent offenses and the latter are incompetent messes. That sounds about right. Detroit would fall into the category of competent offense. Although, Detroit does have a competent offense, I would be remiss to not mention some of their issues. Detroit is coming to Seattle having lost their last 3 games and Matthew Stafford not playing his best (most likely due to a finger injury that has bothered him the last three weeks).The Lions, also, really struggle getting to the quarterback. The Lions are tied for second to last in sacks in the league. It will be interesting to see if the Lions D-Line can take advantage of the weak Seahawks O-Line and get to Russell Wilson. It is has been happening all season, so I think Haloti Ngata and his teammates can do it. Despite the recent struggles, it is important to note that the three teams the Lions lost to are not on the same level as the Bucs or Cardinals. Since Thanksgiving, the Green Bay Packers were the one common opponent for each of these teams. These three teams would be fellow playoff contenders, New York (NFC), Dallas, and Green Bay.  The Lions lost by a touchdown, the Seahawks lost by four touchdowns. The last note I will bring up is that these two teams played in a thriller last year on Monday night, in which, the Seahawks barely came away with victory. The result would have most likely changed had the referees called a fairly obvious illegal batting on linebacker KJ Wright. However, they missed it, and the Seahawks were victorious. I see this game being very similar. It will be hard-fought and exciting, and the Seahawks will most likely end up on top, but only by a small margin.

  Last Night: 2-1
  Overall: 8-4-1



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