Daily Three 1/10

  Hello,

   So, obviously the big game last night did not go the way that I planned. It got off to a great start. Alabama got off to a quick 14-0 start, Bo was running all over the Clemson defense and using up clock. Things seemed to be going the right way. However, Clemson executed a wonderful game plan and kept the Bama defense on the field for 99 plays. The Alabama defense has never played that much in their history. Also, Bo went down in the third quarter, and the Tide were no longer able to play the bruising style of football that worked in the first half. Although I am disappointed with the result, I have no regrets making that pick and am fully confident that it was just a bad break. Anyway, we march on as we still have a winning record and split the other two games last night. Tonight, we are going to skip out on pucks and add an extra NCAAB game, as there are two primetime showdowns that I am looking forward to watching.

NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers at Utah Jazz +2

Tonight, the Lebron and the Cavs roll into Salt Lake City to take on Gordon Hayward and the Jazz. Although initially, it may seem like the Cavs are an easy bet to roll here, I am going the other way and taking Utah tonight. An astounding 86% of spread bets so far in this game are going towards the Cavs. Even though such heavy action is currently coming in on the Cavs, the spread has actually dropped from Cavs -2.5 to Cavs -2. One reason for this would obviously be that sharp money is on the Jazz. Clearly, it did not work for us last night. However, over the long run, following the sharp money will lead to more victories than losses. Also, Salt Lake City is an incredibly hard place for any opposing NBA team to come into and get a victory. Just ask the Golden State Warriors, who have played many close games with the Jazz over the past three years. At home, the Jazz are able to really slow down the pace of the game and grind out victories against teams that are really more talented than they are. I think they are definitely capable of doing that, but just to be safe, we will take the two points the Cavs are giving us anyway.

NCAAB
Baylor Bears at West Virginia Mountaineers -6

What a slate of college basketball games tonight. People like to bash how meaningless the regular season is in college basketball, but I disagree. Going into hostile buildings and playing competitive games against even-matched teams build you for March. Also, they are incredibly exciting. One of these matchups tonight comes in the Big 12 as the number one ranked Baylor Bears go into Morgantown to face West Virginia.  For the first time in program history, Baylor is the number one team in the country. Quite the accomplishment for coach, Scott Drew, who took over the team as it was struck in turmoil resulting from poor performance and the ongoing murder trial of one of its own players killing a fellow teammate. Unfortunately for Drew, Baylor's first game at the top of the rankings is probably going to end in a loss. As I'm sure many of you can recall from last year, each and every week it seemed like there was a new number one team. Constantly after reaching the top, teams just constantly blew their chance and fell right back down the ladder. The main reason for this is that the sport severely lacked a true number one team. I think that is also the case this season. Currently, Baylor is ranked 7th in the Ken Pom efficiency poll. Although that is obviously a very good, they are ranked below their opponent who is currently ranked at #2. Also, an interesting metric that Ken Pom uses it Luck. Luck is apparently evaluated by rating a team's actual record against it's expected record based on Ken Pom ratings. This could possibly explain why an undefeated Baylor team would fall all the way down to 7. Baylor ranks 81st in the luck category, which is actually considerably high for a team of their caliber. Consider tonight to be the night that their luck runs out, as Bob Huggins will have his squad controlling the pace with their high-intensity press and deep roster.

Duke Blue Devils at Florida State Seminoles -1.5

 In this one, Duke will be without its coach and senior leader Amile Jefferson as they head to Tallahassee to face the surprisingly good Florida State Seminoles. I'm sure I will get many opportunities to talk about Duke, so I will talk about Leonard Hamilton's squad. The Seminoles just hit the top ten this week and are ranked #19 in the Ken Pom rankings. Hamilton's teams usually are very defensively-minded, however this squad has found a very nice balance and strike fear in their opponents from both side of the court. The Seminoles are led by Dwayne Bacon, who made the surprising decision to return for his sophomore year. Bacon was part of a huge recruiting class along with Terrance Mann and Malik Beasley, who did leave after his freshman year. Despite little spurts of success, the Seminoles were unable to find any consistency and struggled to a 20-14 record and second round loss in the NIT. Now, Bacon leads the team in scoring with 18 points a game and the Seminoles appear to be a lock to make the tournament already, barring a late season collapse. Their X-Factor is junior Xavier Rathan-Mayes. During his freshman year, Rathan-Mayes straight up balled and almost led the Seminoles to a NIT title. However, last season with the additions of Bacon, Mann, and Beasley, Rathan-Mayes struggled to adapt to his role of facilitator and the Seminoles struggled as a result. This season, his minutes are down, but he has started every game and has career highs in assists and assist-turnover ratio. In order for the Seminoles to pull it out tonight, Rathan-Mayes will need to able to control the pace and limit turnovers. I think he is more than capable, as he is a great player, and the Blue Devils have historically struggled playing in Northern Florida. The Seminoles will take advantage of some of the Blue Devils' losses and get the home victory to continue their winning ways.

Last Night: 1-2
Overall: 11-9-1