Hello,
Unforunately, Saturday resulted in the first losing day for the picks I have given out. Despite, a 2-1 record in college basketball, the Wild blew an early 2-0 and lost to the Kings, while my bold proclamation about the Seahawks did not hold up. So, Saturday ended up being a 2-3 day (Pistons/Blazers game was postponed, so the play becomes invalid). Tonight belongs to college football as the Clemson Tigers and Alabama Crimson Tide will go head-to-head for the right to be called national champions. I will have a pick for each the NHL and the NBA with no write-up as I'm sure all of the focus will be on the big game tonight.
NHL
Washington Capitals EVEN at Montreal Canadiens (Caps are underdogs, take them)
NBA
Dallas Mavericks +4.5 at Minnesota Timberwolves (Public is with the Wolves and the spread went down from -5 to -4.5)
NCAAF
Clemson Tigers vs Alabama Crimson Tide -6.5 (Lock of the Month)
It only makes sense that the Lock of the Month would take place in the National College Football Championship game. Clemson is looking for payback against the Bama team that ended their championship dreams last season. Clemson was able to cover the 7 point spread in last year's championship game thanks to a late score with twelve seconds late in the game. Yes, Clemson did cover, but that is definitely a flukey way to cover a game. As we get into this year's version, we are going to look at some betting trends. In their past ten games, the Tigers are 5-5 against the spread, while the Crimson Tide are a remarkable 8-2. Usually, the trend in Vegas tends to be "Never bet against the Tide." However, the public has seemed to abandon this principle in the lead-up to this game. As of time of this writing, 61% of spread bets are on Clemson, according to Sports Insights (all betting percentages are according to Sports Insights). One of our main principles is that the public is normally wrong and in some cases, stupid. In this situation, I think the public is being stupid. What could possibly lead to 3/5th of bettors to be all over the Tigers. Well, one reason is probably recency bias. The last time we saw these two teams play, the Tigers absolutely man-handled the number 3 seed Ohio State Buckeyes, while the Crimson Tide struggled with a stingy Washington Huskies team and managed to get by with a 24-7 (worth noting, Alabama covered). The Tigers' offense was very efficient and their defense was dominant. The Tide's D was business as usual, while the offense was stagnant at times and struggled to move the ball against a solid Washington D. It would make sense for people to side with the Tigers, if they had only watched these two teams played on New Year's Eve. However, we have an entire season of football to evaluate these two teams, and the Tide were consistently dominant throughout it. The Tigers definitely had their moments, but also lost a game at home to an average Pitt team, and they really should have lost a second game at home to NC State (NC State missed game-winning field goal as time expired). Also, I think the results of the semifinal games actually benefits Alabama. Do you think that Nick Saban is going to allow his team to be disorganized, inefficient, and sloppy for a second consecutive game, let alone a second consecutive playoff game. Saban is probably reminding his players every single morning about their performance in Atlanta and will be ready to go in Tampa. Clemson, on the other hand, played a phenomenal game in Glendale and definitely exceed expectations. Coach, Dabo Swinney, will need to keep his players his players grounded and not let them get too cocky. Obviously, these players believe in their head coach, but college athletes are way different than professionals. The media have been talking them up for the past week and a half, and they are definitely listening to it. We shall see if they can drown out the noise and just play their game, however, I think it will definitely have some effect on them. Also, the public is probably concerned about the sudden departure of Lane Kiffin. I wouldn't look too much into it. Steve Sarkisian has been a successful offensive coordinator in the sport and has been around the staff all year. His role as offensive analyst did not allow him much contact with players. He will most likely use a game plan that is basically cut from the same cloth as Kiffin's game plans all year, and the offense will run smoothly. Now that we have exposed the public for its foolish logic, we can look at our other betting principle, sharp money/reverse line movement. Is there any reverse line movement going on this game. Boom, we can confirm that there is some reverse line movement. The line opened up at -6 and has since moved to the aforementioned -6.5, despite 61% of spread bets being placed on the Tigers. This reverse line movement has been triggered by sharp money, as the Tide have received 47% of the money wagered despite only getting 39% of the bets. Even though, Clemson has received more money at 53%, it does not mean the sharp money is on them. Since, more bets have been placed on Clemson than money wagered on them, it more or less proves the point that they are being backed by the public, which we do not like. Lastly, if you want to get behind a narrative in this game, don't fall for the obvious ones that actually have no merit. Obviously, Clemson wants revenge over Bama, but it doesn't mean that they are going to try harder than a Nick Saban coached team. The junior Heisman candidate QB vs the true freshman QB narrative is also very overhyped. Jalen Hurts didn't seem to phased winning the Iron Bowl, SEC Championship, or National Semifinal games (although he did struggle in the National Semifinal). The real narrative to get behind is this historically good Bama defense. Although, they ended up winning the game last year, this defense got shredded apart by Deshaun Watson. For the the past week and a half, this defense has been watching tape of Watson easily dissecting their defense and dropping 40 points on them. There is nothing that this defense would like to do more than shut down this explosive Clemson offense and cement themselves as one of the greatest defenses in college football history. So, there it is, the lock of the month. The Crimson Tide will take care of business tonight in Tampa and will continue the legacy of the greatest dynasty in the history of the sport.
Saturday: 2-3
Overall: 10-7-1
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