Hello,
Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.
Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES
Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.
LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS
Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.
Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS
I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.
Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Friday, March 24, 2017
Daily Three 3/24
Hello,
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Daily Three 3/23
Hello,
Sorry for the hiatus. The tourney definitely kept me off the NBA and NHL track, so I didn't feel comfortable making picks this week. Regardless, the tourney starts back up tonight, and we are ready to roll.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks + 1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:09 EST TV: CBS
Watch this video of Dillion Brooks. Now, watch this one. Yes, the man has ice in his veins. It must be from his Canadian uprbringing. There is not a single person I want taking the last shot other than Mr. Brooks. Michigan is a very nice story and that is probably inflating their value a little bit. I know they are very hot, but there is a reason they are #7 seed. At some point the shots have to stop falling, and I think tonight is the night. Yes, the loss of Chris Boucher was huge, but people seem to forget, they have another incredible rim protector in Jordan Bell. Also, there defense is pretty stout overall, ranked #25 in the Kenpom in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are the more balanced squad, and I think, that along with a clutch Dillion Brooks basket, will get them the "upset."
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:39 EST TV: TBS
I have the Zags winning the whole thing, so I'm going to stick my pick. The Bulldogs have many detractors. Tonight, haters think that West Virginia is their first real test. Well, they also played and beat two other teams playing this weekend, so they are wrong. They are also scared that the Bulldogs will not be able to handle "Press Virginia" and their ability to force turnovers. Well, there aren't many teams that throw out four guards to handle high pressure defenses. Gonzaga is one of those teams. Josh Perkins, Jordan Matthews, Silas Melson, and of course, Nigel Williams-Goss can do it. Also, West Virginia historically crashes out by the Sweet Sixteen. The one exception during the Bob Huggins era was in 2010, when they had a college super star in Da'Sean Butler. I love Jevon Carter, but he is not a college super star. Also, worth noting, although not incredibly relevant, the one time these two schools met in the tourney (2012), Gonzaga rocked West Virginia. No players remain, but Mark Few definitely knows how to beat Bobby's press. I'm rolling with the Zags tonight and will be as long as their play allows me.
Xavier Musketeers +7.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arizona Wildcats
Time: 10:09 EST TV: TBS
Xavier is the lowest seed left in the tourney, and they got to the Sweet Sixteen in pretty convincing fashion. In their win over Florida State, the Musketeers played a a lot of zone to turn the Seminoles' athletes in to shooters. It worked very well as a 25 point win could easily tell you. The Musketeers will do the same thing tonight in order to limit drives from Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen. Also, they are a bit small on the interior, so this should stop the Arizona bigs from getting easy buckets inside. I still think the Wildcats will pull this one out, however, the Musketeers will make them fight for it.
Bonus Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals -1.5, +165 (10 units wagered, 16.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: CSN-MA
Meaningless regular season games are where the Caps strive. Okay, this has important seeding implications on the line, but still, at this point, nothing matters until the middle of April. I made this point the last time people hyped up a Jackets-Caps game in D.C., and the Caps killed the Jackets. So, I am just going to stick with that logic.
Saturday: 1-2
Overall: 108-97-7 (+105.5 Units)
March: 26-24: (+5.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 6-3 (+27 units)
Sorry for the hiatus. The tourney definitely kept me off the NBA and NHL track, so I didn't feel comfortable making picks this week. Regardless, the tourney starts back up tonight, and we are ready to roll.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks + 1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:09 EST TV: CBS
Watch this video of Dillion Brooks. Now, watch this one. Yes, the man has ice in his veins. It must be from his Canadian uprbringing. There is not a single person I want taking the last shot other than Mr. Brooks. Michigan is a very nice story and that is probably inflating their value a little bit. I know they are very hot, but there is a reason they are #7 seed. At some point the shots have to stop falling, and I think tonight is the night. Yes, the loss of Chris Boucher was huge, but people seem to forget, they have another incredible rim protector in Jordan Bell. Also, there defense is pretty stout overall, ranked #25 in the Kenpom in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are the more balanced squad, and I think, that along with a clutch Dillion Brooks basket, will get them the "upset."
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:39 EST TV: TBS
I have the Zags winning the whole thing, so I'm going to stick my pick. The Bulldogs have many detractors. Tonight, haters think that West Virginia is their first real test. Well, they also played and beat two other teams playing this weekend, so they are wrong. They are also scared that the Bulldogs will not be able to handle "Press Virginia" and their ability to force turnovers. Well, there aren't many teams that throw out four guards to handle high pressure defenses. Gonzaga is one of those teams. Josh Perkins, Jordan Matthews, Silas Melson, and of course, Nigel Williams-Goss can do it. Also, West Virginia historically crashes out by the Sweet Sixteen. The one exception during the Bob Huggins era was in 2010, when they had a college super star in Da'Sean Butler. I love Jevon Carter, but he is not a college super star. Also, worth noting, although not incredibly relevant, the one time these two schools met in the tourney (2012), Gonzaga rocked West Virginia. No players remain, but Mark Few definitely knows how to beat Bobby's press. I'm rolling with the Zags tonight and will be as long as their play allows me.
Xavier Musketeers +7.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arizona Wildcats
Time: 10:09 EST TV: TBS
Xavier is the lowest seed left in the tourney, and they got to the Sweet Sixteen in pretty convincing fashion. In their win over Florida State, the Musketeers played a a lot of zone to turn the Seminoles' athletes in to shooters. It worked very well as a 25 point win could easily tell you. The Musketeers will do the same thing tonight in order to limit drives from Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen. Also, they are a bit small on the interior, so this should stop the Arizona bigs from getting easy buckets inside. I still think the Wildcats will pull this one out, however, the Musketeers will make them fight for it.
Bonus Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals -1.5, +165 (10 units wagered, 16.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: CSN-MA
Meaningless regular season games are where the Caps strive. Okay, this has important seeding implications on the line, but still, at this point, nothing matters until the middle of April. I made this point the last time people hyped up a Jackets-Caps game in D.C., and the Caps killed the Jackets. So, I am just going to stick with that logic.
Saturday: 1-2
Overall: 108-97-7 (+105.5 Units)
March: 26-24: (+5.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 6-3 (+27 units)
Saturday, March 18, 2017
Daily Three 3/18
Hello,
I'm sure you all saw how we covered on the Oklahoma State game. Some will say we got lucky, but the Cowboys were winning for most of the game and were covering for about 35 minutes. Justice was served. If it was cheap, we definitely were punished in the Seton Hall game with that phantom flagrant foul call. Overall, it was a good day with a 2-1 record and 5-1 so far in the tourney. We will look to continue the good fortune today. Let's do it.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -10.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 5:15 EST TV: CBS
Look, Northwestern has a good story. "Yay, we finally made the NCAA tournament in basketball. we have been underdogs for so long, and we just deserve it." Yeah, it's not like Northwestern is one of the better schools in the country with billions of dollars in their endowment and incredible presence in the media. Anyway, this Northwestern team is good, and Chris Collins clearly has them going in the right direction. However, I don't think Northwestern can matchup with Gonzaga athletically. The Bulldogs are just too deep. I think the 'Cats will stick with them for a half, and then falter towards the end of the game. Julia, you are an American treasure, and Veep is an amazing show, but I have to say that I am sorry. Your son and the Wildcats are going down today.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida Gators -2 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 8:40 EST TV: TNT
I really like this Florida team. The injury to John Egbunu was unfortunate, but it didn't mean this team immediately needed to be written off. They still play stifling defense, have a sharp shooter in KeVaughn Allen, and have athletes that get to the hole in Devin Robinson and Justin Leon. Virginia has a stifling defense as well, but you could see on Thursday that this team is hurting. Damian Wilkins was unable to play with an illness (he will not play the day), and their two best players, London Perrantes and Marial Shayok both left Thursday's game for periods of time to deal with injuries. Also, homecourt advantage isn't a huge deal in the tourney, but Florida will be playing in Orlando, which is Gator Country. I just really think this Florida team can compete and were handed an unfortunate draw. Regardless, the Gators will blow this spread away and then have to find a way to deal with their next opponent.
Iowa State Cyclones -1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Purdue Boilermakers
Time: 9:40 EST TV: TBS
Here is a link to the March Madness preview (I know I did it yesterday, but it worked). Monte Morris has been a revelation to the Iowa State program, and I think he will be rewarded this season. People will tell your that the Boilermakers will be too big and physical for the Cyclones. However, it is guards that rule the day in the tournament, and Iowa State has the better, more experienced ones. We are going to keep the riding the Cyclones to victory.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 107-96-7 (+117.5 Units)
March: 25-22 (+17.5 units)
NCAA Tournament: 5-1 (+39 Units)
I'm sure you all saw how we covered on the Oklahoma State game. Some will say we got lucky, but the Cowboys were winning for most of the game and were covering for about 35 minutes. Justice was served. If it was cheap, we definitely were punished in the Seton Hall game with that phantom flagrant foul call. Overall, it was a good day with a 2-1 record and 5-1 so far in the tourney. We will look to continue the good fortune today. Let's do it.
Northwestern Wildcats vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -10.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 5:15 EST TV: CBS
Look, Northwestern has a good story. "Yay, we finally made the NCAA tournament in basketball. we have been underdogs for so long, and we just deserve it." Yeah, it's not like Northwestern is one of the better schools in the country with billions of dollars in their endowment and incredible presence in the media. Anyway, this Northwestern team is good, and Chris Collins clearly has them going in the right direction. However, I don't think Northwestern can matchup with Gonzaga athletically. The Bulldogs are just too deep. I think the 'Cats will stick with them for a half, and then falter towards the end of the game. Julia, you are an American treasure, and Veep is an amazing show, but I have to say that I am sorry. Your son and the Wildcats are going down today.
Virginia Cavaliers vs Florida Gators -2 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 8:40 EST TV: TNT
I really like this Florida team. The injury to John Egbunu was unfortunate, but it didn't mean this team immediately needed to be written off. They still play stifling defense, have a sharp shooter in KeVaughn Allen, and have athletes that get to the hole in Devin Robinson and Justin Leon. Virginia has a stifling defense as well, but you could see on Thursday that this team is hurting. Damian Wilkins was unable to play with an illness (he will not play the day), and their two best players, London Perrantes and Marial Shayok both left Thursday's game for periods of time to deal with injuries. Also, homecourt advantage isn't a huge deal in the tourney, but Florida will be playing in Orlando, which is Gator Country. I just really think this Florida team can compete and were handed an unfortunate draw. Regardless, the Gators will blow this spread away and then have to find a way to deal with their next opponent.
Iowa State Cyclones -1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Purdue Boilermakers
Time: 9:40 EST TV: TBS
Here is a link to the March Madness preview (I know I did it yesterday, but it worked). Monte Morris has been a revelation to the Iowa State program, and I think he will be rewarded this season. People will tell your that the Boilermakers will be too big and physical for the Cyclones. However, it is guards that rule the day in the tournament, and Iowa State has the better, more experienced ones. We are going to keep the riding the Cyclones to victory.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 107-96-7 (+117.5 Units)
March: 25-22 (+17.5 units)
NCAA Tournament: 5-1 (+39 Units)
Friday, March 17, 2017
Daily Three 3/17
Hello,
Well, we started the tournament off with a bang, a 3-0, +30 unit day. It was the first undefeated day in a while, and we are going use that momentum to keep making the right picks. Let's do it again.
Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Michigan Wolverines
Time: 12:15 EST TV: CBS
I'm guessing I am going to get some flak for this one. Oklahoma State has lost their last three games coming into the tournament. The Wolverines won 4 games in 4 days to win the Big 10 Tournament. Everyone has appeared to jump on the Wolverine bandwagon. However, I am not one one of those people. Look, what they did last week was impressive, and Derrick Walton Jr. is a stud. However, I think that they benefited greatly from playing 4 games in 4 days. They got into a rhythm right away, and they were just able ride it the whole weekend. Now, they have been off for a few days, and it will be hard to maintain what they built last week. I think Michigan is going to fall back to their normal, inconsistent level of play that plagued them for most of the year. Oklahoma State has the most efficient offense in the country, according to Kenpom, and I think they can take advantage of their matchup against Michigan's average defense. I'm going to stray from the crowd and take the Cowboys to pull off the mini upset.
Side note, Jawun Evans vs Walton will most likely be the best individual matchup today, so make sure you stream this game today at the office.
Seton Hall Pirates +1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Time: 1:30 EST TV: TNT
In this matchup, we have the Seton Hall Pirates, who are the better team but lack depth, going against the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have a deep rotation that allows them to play their patented "40 Minutes of Hell" style. Today, I am going to side with the better team. The Pirates have the leading rebounder in the country, Angel Delgado, and competent guards that will be able to handle the high pressure from the Razorbacks. Also, the Razorbacks completely imploded in the SEC Championship game against Kentucky. They committed a few flagrant fouls, including a flagrant 2 from their best player, Moses Kingsley, that led to his ejection (he will play today). It's hard to come back from defaulting efforts like the one on Sunday, and I think the Pirates are totally capable of taking advantage of it. Today, we are your favorite childhood story comes to life, as we are going to find the buried treasure with the Pirates.
Rhode Island Rams -1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Creighton Blue Jays
Here is a link to my March Madness preview. You will find a writeup about E.C. Matthews. That is all you need to know about this game. I will say, though, that the Blue Jays have really struggled since that Mo Watson injury. It is really a shame, they could have gone very far this year if he was still healthy.
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 105-95-7 (+108.5 units)
March: 23-21 (+8.5 units)
NCAA Tournament: 3-0 (+30 Units)
Well, we started the tournament off with a bang, a 3-0, +30 unit day. It was the first undefeated day in a while, and we are going use that momentum to keep making the right picks. Let's do it again.
Oklahoma State Cowboys +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Michigan Wolverines
Time: 12:15 EST TV: CBS
I'm guessing I am going to get some flak for this one. Oklahoma State has lost their last three games coming into the tournament. The Wolverines won 4 games in 4 days to win the Big 10 Tournament. Everyone has appeared to jump on the Wolverine bandwagon. However, I am not one one of those people. Look, what they did last week was impressive, and Derrick Walton Jr. is a stud. However, I think that they benefited greatly from playing 4 games in 4 days. They got into a rhythm right away, and they were just able ride it the whole weekend. Now, they have been off for a few days, and it will be hard to maintain what they built last week. I think Michigan is going to fall back to their normal, inconsistent level of play that plagued them for most of the year. Oklahoma State has the most efficient offense in the country, according to Kenpom, and I think they can take advantage of their matchup against Michigan's average defense. I'm going to stray from the crowd and take the Cowboys to pull off the mini upset.
Side note, Jawun Evans vs Walton will most likely be the best individual matchup today, so make sure you stream this game today at the office.
Seton Hall Pirates +1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arkansas Razorbacks
Time: 1:30 EST TV: TNT
In this matchup, we have the Seton Hall Pirates, who are the better team but lack depth, going against the Arkansas Razorbacks, who have a deep rotation that allows them to play their patented "40 Minutes of Hell" style. Today, I am going to side with the better team. The Pirates have the leading rebounder in the country, Angel Delgado, and competent guards that will be able to handle the high pressure from the Razorbacks. Also, the Razorbacks completely imploded in the SEC Championship game against Kentucky. They committed a few flagrant fouls, including a flagrant 2 from their best player, Moses Kingsley, that led to his ejection (he will play today). It's hard to come back from defaulting efforts like the one on Sunday, and I think the Pirates are totally capable of taking advantage of it. Today, we are your favorite childhood story comes to life, as we are going to find the buried treasure with the Pirates.
Rhode Island Rams -1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Creighton Blue Jays
Here is a link to my March Madness preview. You will find a writeup about E.C. Matthews. That is all you need to know about this game. I will say, though, that the Blue Jays have really struggled since that Mo Watson injury. It is really a shame, they could have gone very far this year if he was still healthy.
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 105-95-7 (+108.5 units)
March: 23-21 (+8.5 units)
NCAA Tournament: 3-0 (+30 Units)
Thursday, March 16, 2017
Daily Three 3/16
Hello,
Sorry for the break in picks. We have taken a few days off for the March Madness preview and to prepare the next three weeks. Thanks for reading the March Madness Edition. It was the most popular blog post to date, and it really spread like wildfire. Thanks for the support, and I will reward you with some great tourney picks. Let's get to it.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks +8 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Virginia Cavaliers
Time: 12:40 EST TV: TruTV
We are going to up the unit game a little bit for the tourney. This game is a complete contrast of styles. The Seahawks, the Colonial Athletic Champions, depend on keeping the game moving with their guard-centric lineup. Wilmington lacks size (no one on the roster is over 6' 7''), so they depend on guards, C.J. Bryce and Denzel Ingram, to push the tempo and keep the game from being a physical slog. Virginia plays suffocating defense and will run their offense until they get the perfect shot, or the shot clock runs out. Virginia has an experienced floor general in London Perrantes, but they lack any star power. That is okay for Tony Bennett's squad as they have a team-first mentality. I normally stick with defense in the tourney, but I really think that the Seahawks will be able to push the pace in this game. If they can get ahead early, it will force the Cavs to play out of their comfort zone. Even if Virginia is able to come back, they play so slow, that it will never get over the 8 point spread. Also, the sharps are on the Seahawks. The % of ATS bets has been fairly even. However, the spread has moved from 9 points to 8 points since opening. I am not sure who will pull out the victory, but I think the Seahawks well definitely make this the first interesting game of the tourney.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Time: 4 EST TV: TNT
There is a lot to consider in this game. For one, a #12 seed is a favorite over a #5 seed. It makes sense. The Blue Raiders are one of the strongest #12 seeds in recent memory, and the Golden Gophers are one of the weakest #5 seeds in recent history. Second, a #12 seed has upset a #5 seed in every tournament since 1985, with the exception of four years. The 12-5 upset is most likely going to happen, and this clearly looks like the best shot. Lastly, in the tournament, we enjoy picking on teams that were overseeded. The Gophers are overseeded. They profile more like a #7 seed, but they were strengthened by a strong RPI and blazing hot finish to their season. Playing against a team that could make an argument for being a #10, I think the Gophers are in trouble today. The Blue Raiders have tourney experience (remember the upset of Michigan State), athletes (Arkansas transfer and Conference USA Player of the Year, JaCory Williams and Reggie Upshaw), and big-time coach, Kermit Davis. Pick the "upset" and go with the Blue Raiders.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:40 EST TV: CBS
Just like we pick on teams that are overseeded, we like to pick teams that are underseeded as long as the value there (the media backlash over Wichita State has stripped them of much value tomorrow). I am sure I have harped on this enough, but the Badgers really have a legitimate gripe with their seed. They came in second in the Big Ten, made the Big Ten Tournament Champion, have no bad losses (maybe Iowa at the Kohl Center), and beat Minnesota (2x) and Maryland, who were seeded above them. Wisconsin was punished for a weaker RPI, not the best SOS (they scheduled the Maui, Oklahoma, Creighton (who got worse after their best player tore his ACL, and Syracuse. It is not their fault those teams had down years), and their rough February. The Badgers are going to be fired up, and I don't think that Virginia Tech has the pieces inside to deal with Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes. The Hokies are going to try to spread the floor and win with the three ball. It is worth noting that the Badgers have been below average in guarding the three this season. However, Bronson Koenig and Zach Showalter are solid defenders and experienced players that should be able to clamp down on Seth Allen and Co. Also, there is a significant experience advantage towards the Badgers. The Wisconsin senior class has played in two Final Fours and three Sweet Sixteens. The Hokies have not been in the tourney since 2007. I think the Badgers win this one, and they win it running away. On Wisconsin!!!
Sunday: 1-2
Overall: 102-95-7 (+78.5 units)
March: 20-21: (-21.5 units)
Sorry for the break in picks. We have taken a few days off for the March Madness preview and to prepare the next three weeks. Thanks for reading the March Madness Edition. It was the most popular blog post to date, and it really spread like wildfire. Thanks for the support, and I will reward you with some great tourney picks. Let's get to it.
UNC Wilmington Seahawks +8 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Virginia Cavaliers
Time: 12:40 EST TV: TruTV
We are going to up the unit game a little bit for the tourney. This game is a complete contrast of styles. The Seahawks, the Colonial Athletic Champions, depend on keeping the game moving with their guard-centric lineup. Wilmington lacks size (no one on the roster is over 6' 7''), so they depend on guards, C.J. Bryce and Denzel Ingram, to push the tempo and keep the game from being a physical slog. Virginia plays suffocating defense and will run their offense until they get the perfect shot, or the shot clock runs out. Virginia has an experienced floor general in London Perrantes, but they lack any star power. That is okay for Tony Bennett's squad as they have a team-first mentality. I normally stick with defense in the tourney, but I really think that the Seahawks will be able to push the pace in this game. If they can get ahead early, it will force the Cavs to play out of their comfort zone. Even if Virginia is able to come back, they play so slow, that it will never get over the 8 point spread. Also, the sharps are on the Seahawks. The % of ATS bets has been fairly even. However, the spread has moved from 9 points to 8 points since opening. I am not sure who will pull out the victory, but I think the Seahawks well definitely make this the first interesting game of the tourney.
Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Time: 4 EST TV: TNT
There is a lot to consider in this game. For one, a #12 seed is a favorite over a #5 seed. It makes sense. The Blue Raiders are one of the strongest #12 seeds in recent memory, and the Golden Gophers are one of the weakest #5 seeds in recent history. Second, a #12 seed has upset a #5 seed in every tournament since 1985, with the exception of four years. The 12-5 upset is most likely going to happen, and this clearly looks like the best shot. Lastly, in the tournament, we enjoy picking on teams that were overseeded. The Gophers are overseeded. They profile more like a #7 seed, but they were strengthened by a strong RPI and blazing hot finish to their season. Playing against a team that could make an argument for being a #10, I think the Gophers are in trouble today. The Blue Raiders have tourney experience (remember the upset of Michigan State), athletes (Arkansas transfer and Conference USA Player of the Year, JaCory Williams and Reggie Upshaw), and big-time coach, Kermit Davis. Pick the "upset" and go with the Blue Raiders.
Virginia Tech Hokies vs Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:40 EST TV: CBS
Just like we pick on teams that are overseeded, we like to pick teams that are underseeded as long as the value there (the media backlash over Wichita State has stripped them of much value tomorrow). I am sure I have harped on this enough, but the Badgers really have a legitimate gripe with their seed. They came in second in the Big Ten, made the Big Ten Tournament Champion, have no bad losses (maybe Iowa at the Kohl Center), and beat Minnesota (2x) and Maryland, who were seeded above them. Wisconsin was punished for a weaker RPI, not the best SOS (they scheduled the Maui, Oklahoma, Creighton (who got worse after their best player tore his ACL, and Syracuse. It is not their fault those teams had down years), and their rough February. The Badgers are going to be fired up, and I don't think that Virginia Tech has the pieces inside to deal with Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes. The Hokies are going to try to spread the floor and win with the three ball. It is worth noting that the Badgers have been below average in guarding the three this season. However, Bronson Koenig and Zach Showalter are solid defenders and experienced players that should be able to clamp down on Seth Allen and Co. Also, there is a significant experience advantage towards the Badgers. The Wisconsin senior class has played in two Final Fours and three Sweet Sixteens. The Hokies have not been in the tourney since 2007. I think the Badgers win this one, and they win it running away. On Wisconsin!!!
Sunday: 1-2
Overall: 102-95-7 (+78.5 units)
March: 20-21: (-21.5 units)
Tuesday, March 14, 2017
Daily Three - March Madness Edition
Hello,
The greatest three weeks of the year are upon us. It is time for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The next three weeks are bound to be a roller coaster ride of emotions whether it is caused by your bracket or your favorite team. In this edition of the Daily Three, I am going to try to make your March a bit more emotionally stable. I am going to point out a few teams and players that I really like. I am going to highlight some teams that have some glaring weaknesses that do not mesh well with the single-elimintation format. I will also highlight teams that the Selection Committee gave the cold shoulder, and those that were given a "cake walk." Also, I will give some tips on what I focus on when I pick my bracket. I am not giving you a Final Four or a champion. I just hope this gives you a little more insight for when you make the crucial picks that will make or break your bracket. So, I am going to start with a few thoughts on the selection process.
Selection Process
1. Almost No Bubble Trouble - The Committee was very fortunate this year and didn't catch any serious flak for leaving certain teams out of the tournament. The biggest outcry from the media was Syracuse, but let's be real, that team didn't deserve to make it. A team with an RPI that low (84) has never made the tourney as an at-large team. We can argue the merits of RPI all we want (it is totally outdated), but it is a key ingredient to the Selection's Committee's evaluation of the teams up for a bid. Also, half of ESPN went to Newhouse, so of course the Worldwide Leader is going to push the Syracuse narrative. The only issue I have with the committee on the selection of teams is why do we reward middling power conference teams that are given several opportunities to boost their resume, while we crucify mid-majors, who struggle to find quality opponents to play. Illinois State cannot get Duke to come to their building. Monmouth cannot get Kentucky to come to New Jersey. Heck, it is hard for school high-level mid-majors to schedule games at Top 10 programs' buildings. Even when they can schedule a home and home with a power conference program, there is no guarantee said power conference program will be as prestigious three years after the game was scheduled. If Illinois State scheduled a road game with Indiana three years ago, they would have gotten completely screwed over this year, as Indiana was terrible. Illinois State tried to go out and play a tough team, and it would not be rewarded by the Committee. The Selection Committee must reevaluate how they look at mid-majors and find a way to give them a fair shot at making the tourney as an at-large.
2. Analytics Need to be More Involved in the Process - Although the Committee did not mess up with bubble teams, they completely butchered the seeding. Literally, ten people were comfortable walking out of the meeting room knowing they rated Minnesota ahead of Iowa State, the Big 12 Conference Tournament Champion, Notre Dame, an ACC Conference Championship finalist, and 11 spots ahead of Wisconsin, who swept Minnesota in the season series and made the Big Ten Final. These teams significantly outpaced the Gophers in every important analytical poll except for the RPI, which the Gophers were the highest of the four teams. They were also felt okay with Wichita State being a 10 seed. At first, I thought the Badgers' seeding was the most egregious in the tournament history. I guess a member of the committee thought he could one up the others and simply stated, "Hold my beer." The Shockers are ranked #10 in the Kenpom and yet the Committee felt that they were the 38th best team in the field. That is absolutely preposterous. I am not sitting here saying that analytics need to be the "say all, end all" (Arizona is #20 in the Kenpom but clearly deserved a #2 seed). However when we completely ignore analytics, we find ourselves in situations where higher seeded teams are punished, because they have to play teams that are underseeded. So, everyone is punished, because the Committee was unable to accurately evaluate a team's standing. If the Committee opens itself up to use analytics more in the future, we will have a more balanced field and more reasonable matchups.
3. The Overall Number 1 Seed Gets the Shaft Again - I've spent a little too much time on this section, and I am going to address this very soon
Toughest Road to the Final Four Amongst 1-2 Seeds
1. #1 Villanova Wildcats (East) - I told you I would address this very soon. Typically, the Overall #1 is rewarded with an easier path to the title game. However, the Committee thinks that if you earn this spot, you have to continue to be challenged. If they get out of the first round, the Cats will play one of the tougher #8 seeds in recent memory, the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers were grossly underseeded and do provide some matchup issues for 'Nova. The place to attack the Wildcats is in the paint, and the Badgers have seasoned vet, Nigel Hayes, and Frank Kaminsky Lite, Ethan Happ. The Badgers boast as much tournament experience as any other team in the country. The senior class has been to 3 Sweet Sixteens and 2 Final Fours. This team knows what it takes and will give the 'Cats everything their best shot. If they get past Wisconsin (or Virginia Tech, I guess), Nova' will most likely take on Florida or Virginia. The Gators are ferocious defensively, ranking #4 in the defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Kevaughn Allen is a silent assassin for the Gators. One second, he will have 0 points on 0-2 shooting, and then a second later, he will have hit 4 threes in a minute. The Gators did lose star center, John Egbunu, and have lost 3 of 6 since the injury. However, I will chalk that up to a tough schedule (Kentucky is obviously very good, Vanderbilt provided matchup issues for the Gators and beat them twice). The Cavaliers of Virginia gave 'Nova a battle earlier this season. The Cavs were winning by 9 points at halftime and almost came away with the victory. It took a miracle tip-in from the Cats to pull out the victory in Philly. I would expect a very similar result if these two teams meet. Then, the Elite Eight could bring them the Duke Blue Devils, who are arguably the most talented team in the country: Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson. They still have Grayson Allen and Harry Giles waiting on the bench. The Committee did not do Villanova any favors. If they can get past murderer's row, they should be in good shape to win the whole thing.
2. #2 Kentucky Wildcats (South) - The Committee must be filled with dog people. Kentucky will not have an easy game throughout their tournament. Their first game will be against Northern Kentucky. That team will be filled with young men that were snubbed by Coach Cal and the Wildcats. They have probably been waiting for an opportunity to take them down their entire college careers. After the Norse, they could get Wichita State, remember, the most abhorrently underseeded team in history. Seeing this matchup, you can't help but have flashbacks of the 2014 Second Round matchup between the two schools. The Shockers were the top seed playing against #8 Kentucky. Led by Julius Randle and James Young, the Wildcats stunned the Shockers and ended Wichita's shot at history. There will be different players on the court in this possible matchup, but the narrative will definitely run. After this, the Wildcats might get UCLA if both teams can get this far. UCLA upset Kentucky in Lexington in December as Lonzo Ball stole the show. It would be an incredible matchup and would make for great TV. It won't make the Wildcats' lives any easier. If Kentucky can get through the Bruins, the Tar Heels will most likely be waiting for them (if it is Butler, they can provide some issues as well). Kentucky won the earlier meeting between these two schools as Malik Monk went off for the Wildcats. Both teams managed to drop over 100 points. If form holds and these two teams meet again, that will not happen again. UNC is healthier and playing better ball than they were in December. It will be very tough to make it out of this region alive.
3. #1 Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest) - Unlike the first two teams, the Jayhawks have a little easier of a road. They will definitely have obstacles to overcome to get to Arizona. In the Second Round, Kansas could face a Miami team that has very athletic guards that can keep up with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham. Also, their coach, Jim Larrañaga, knows a thing about pulling off a major upset over a #1 seed (2006 George Mason over UConn). If Miami loses, they will play the Michigan State Tom Izzos. Everybody knows about Coach Izzo's pedigree in March. If they get to the Sweet Sixteen, they will play against Monte Morris (you will be hearing more about him and the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones did the impossible and beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse earlier this season. That almost never happens, but Iowa State did it. Iowa State is also the hottest team in the country, winning 9 of their last 10 games. It is unfair for this to be a matchup in my opinion, but the Committee only has so many places it can put teams. In the Elite Eight, Kansas would likely play Louisville, who I don't think provide that difficult of a matchup. Louisville is only decent on offense, and Kansas' great guard play can easily overcome the high-pressure D of the Cardinals. Overall, it is a difficult journey to Arizona for Kansas. Bunch that with their history of falling short, it may be another early exit for the Jayhawks.
1-2 Seeds with "Cake Walks"
1. #1 Gonzaga Wildcats (West) - As you will learn, the West Region is very weak. In the second round, the Bulldogs will take on Northwestern or Vanderbilt. The 'Cats are a great story, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus is an awesome basketball mom. However, they don't stand a chance against Gonzaga. Vanderbilt lost 15 games this year. They are talented, but Gonzaga's stifling defense will probably stop the Commodores from shooting the three effectively, which they need to do to win basketball games. In the Sweet Sixteen, they will play either the Mountaineers of West Virginia or the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Mountaineers play an up-tempo game that involves pressing full court and causing turnovers. Over the course of the season, this style can really take its toll on the players executing it. West Virginia has made a Final Four recently, but they normally falter by the Sweet Sixteen. Against a team with talented guards like Nigel Williams-Gross, Jordan Matthews, and Josh Perkins, I'm guessing West Virginia will fall again. Notre Dame is able to spread out the floor and get the shots that they like. However, I think the Zags are just way more athletic and should be able to contain the Irish offense. Jonathan Williams III should be able to keep Notre Dame's best athlete on hold, Bonzie Colson, and the Bulldogs will get to the Elite Eight where they will face the Wildcats of Arizona. Gonzaga beat Arizona earlier this season, so they will definitely go into that game knowing it can win. The Zags were given the easiest path to Glendale, and they will try to take advantage of it.
2. #2 Arizona Wildcats (West) - I guess they don't hate all wildcats. The Wildcats should have no trouble getting to the Elite Eight. In the Second Round, they will get a mid-major at-large squad in St. Mary's or VCU that will be unable to match up with the 'Cats athletically. The West has the weakest #3 and #6 seeded team, Florida State and Maryland, respectively. Florida State really struggles away from Tallahassee, and Maryland is incredibly overrated. I watched the Turtles in D.C. on Friday, and they played possibly the worst ten minutes of offensive basketball I have seen all season. They just stand around and hope Melo Trimble will do something for them. Also, both schools will have to fly across the country to take on the Wildcats. There should be no issues in the Sweet Sixteen. The final test will be difficult, but just like Gonzaga, this will be their only difficult matchup on their way to the Final Four. It will just be a wonderful game, and the 'Cats are hoping they will be able to play in a Final Four in their home state.
3. #1 North Carolina Tar Heels (South) - Some have said that the South is the deepest region in the bracket. Fortunately for the Heels, the great teams are in the bottom half of the bracket (Kentucky, UCLA, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita State), so they will only have to play one of them. In the second round, they will get either Seton Hall, who is talented but lack depth and only runs a six man rotation, or Arkansas, who play "40 minutes of hell," but the Tar Heels will turn it into "5 minutes of hell." In the Sweet Sixteen, the Heels will most likely play the Butler Bulldogs, who lack size inside. UNC has a revolving door of big men that they can throw at Butler and will dominate in the paint. If not Butler, they could get #12 seed Middle Tennessee State. The Cinderella story will be a nice storyline, but storylines do not win basketball games. In the Elite Eight, they will definitely have a tough matchup. However, their opponent will probably be so fatigued trying to get through their side of the draw, UNC will be able to outlast whoever they play. The Tar Heels get a nice "cake walk" into the Elite Eight and by then, their tough opponent may not even matter.
Three 3-4 Seeded Teams that Will Struggle to Make It Out of the First Weekend
1. #3 Baylor Bears (East) - It is hard to find a team that played better in the Non-Conference slate than the Bears. They went undefeated and picked up wins over at-large tourney teams: Oregon, Xavier, Louisville, VCU, and Michigan State. They got off to a great start in conference too, but they started to wade off of the course towards the end of the season. The hard Big 12 season got to them, and they finished the year 5-6. In most cases, I would probably give the team a pass and think that getting out of conference will do them some good. However, Baylor has been upset in the first round the past two seasons. In 2015, they lost as a #3 seed to RJ Hunter and Georgia State (last year, they were a #5). I think they will get past the first round this year, as New Mexico State does not have a player with NBA potential like Georgia State and Yale did. However if they beat the Aggies, they will have to play possibly the #6 seed in the tournament's history. The Mustangs finished 30-4 and won the AAC Regular Season and Conference Tournament. This team was underseeded by a line or two, and I think the Bears will pay the price for it (damn committee). If the Bears exit early yet again, Scott Drew will definitely have to answer some tough questions during the offseason.
2. #4 Purdue Boilermakers (Midwest) - Purdue seems to be a very popular underdog pick to get to the Final Four. People are enamored by their size led by Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan. Guess what? They were even bigger last year with A.J. Hammons, and they lost in the first round. I'm not a giant fan of teams that depend on physicality and size in the tournament, because it is common for these teams to rack up fouls and have to sit their best players. See, players are not the only ones looking to move on in the tournament. Refs, also, want to move along and get to the Final Four. I will get more into this in a later segment. Purdue, also, are set to play two of the hottest teams in the country. First, they will be playing the Vermont Catamounts, who currently have the longest winning steak in the country (21 games). Vermont does score a good amount around the basket, so it will really be a true test of how important Purdue's size is. If they move on, Purdue is likely to match up with Iowa State, who is probably the hottest power conference team in the country. They boast the most underrated player in the country, Monte Morris, and Deonte Burton creates serious matchup problems. Purdue-Iowa State will be the perfect test to see what prevails in the tourney, guard play or size.
3. #4 Butler Bulldogs (South) - Butler really didn't get a bad draw. They have a pretty easy opponent in the first round, Winthrop, and they will either play the worst #5 seed ever in Minnesota, or a strong #12 seed, but a #12 seed nonetheless, Middle Tennessee State. My issue with the Bulldogs is that they are very dependent on three point shooting, and they have just been cold over the past month. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and two of those wins were over St. John's and Depaul, which really aren't that impressive. They have been incredibly cold over the past two games only hitting 25% of their three point attempts. If they shoot like this from behind the arc, they could lose to any of the three teams I mentioned, as they will have trouble making up the points in the paint or from mid-range. If Butler can't figure it out from outside, they might just be out, period.
Players that You Will Know and Love by the End of this Weekend
Monte Morris (Iowa State, #11) - Monte Morris is the most under appreciated player in the country. In four years at Iowa State, Morris has been overshadowed by teammates Georges Niang, DeAndre Kane, Jameel McKay, and Melvin Ejim. During this time, Morris broke the Iowa State record for most assists, constantly averaged double digit points and 6 assists a game since his sophomore year, and led the country in assist/turnover ratio for all four years!! He has a 5.71 assist-turover ratio this season, which is a full 1.5 points better than the number that the second best player. Somehow, he is not one of the finalists for the Bob Cousy Award (best point guard in the country), which is an incredible farce. Morris also singlehandedly handed Kansas their aforementioned only loss at home this season. Just watch these highlights from the game. He is greatly involved in almost every play. Morris will have his hands full this week with popular upset pick Nevada, and if they win, most likely Purdue. If Morris can muscle his way through these physical teams, he will show the country who the best point guard in the country is, and he doesn't need some bogus award to say otherwise.
E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island, #0) - I've written about E.C.'s story in the past. In the first game of last year's season, Matthews tore his ACL, essentially crushing Rhode Island's tourney hopes ten minutes into the start of the season. With Matthews returning this season at full strength, the Rams were the media's Cinderella before the season started, and the Rams were going to end the school's 18-year tournament drought. However, they did not have the greatest regular season. It took a while for Matthews to get going, and the Rams finished the season 21-9 and squarely on the bubble. Unsure that they could get into the tournament strictly on its resume, the Rams knew they had to win the A-10 Tournament to leave it out of the Committee's hands. Matthews would end up carrying the Rams, averaging 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds over their three games. He was named the A-10 Tournament MVP and most importantly got Rhode Island back into the tournament. During the broadcast on Friday, you will definitely hear the announcers mention Matthews's comeback from his significant injury, and if they win, you will most likely hear it on Sunday. If Matthews and the Rams can pull off upsets over Creighton and Oregon, Matthews's path from Torn ACL to Sweet Sixteen will be one of the most inspirational stories of March.
JaCorey Williams (Middle Tennessee State, #22) - Okay, the two names you will probably come to remember are Giddy Potts (awesome name) and last year's hero, Reggie Upshaw. However, you should definitely get to know JaCorey Williams. Williams was originally with the Arkansas Razorbacks but struggled getting onto the court, as he was behind Bobby Portis. Yeah, it is normally pretty hard to pass a guy that ended up being SEC Player of the Year. Following Portis's departure, Williams was bound to finally get significant minutes, but he was dismissed from the team due to multiple off-the-court incidents (all I could find were forgery and possibly an incident with a bouncer). MTSU coach, Kermit Davis (another name you will probably remember), gave Williams a second chance and both parties are clearly benefitting. The Blue Raiders ran away with Conference USA and are one of the hottest upset picks this week. Williams led the team in scoring and rebounding, and he was named Conference USA Player of the Year. Williams is an example of a man that was given a second chance and took advantage of it. This weekend, Williams will be a significant piece of a Middle Tennessee team that will be looking to shock the country for a second straight March.
Rapid Fire
Best Round One Matchups: Michigan-Oklahoma State, Nevada-Iowa State, Marquette-South Carolina
Round One Matchups You Can Skip: Cincinnati-KSU/Wake Forest, Jacksonville State-Louisville, St, Mary's-VCU (It has nothing to do with the fact they are mid-majors, St. Mary's is just so slow)
Best Nicknames: Catamounts, Norse, Privateers
Unheralded Freshmen Sidekicks You Should Know: T.J. Leaf (Lonzo Ball - UCLA), Nick Ward (Miles Bridges - Michigan State), Frank Jackson (Jayson Tatum - Duke)
Ice in Their Vines: Melo Trimble (Maryland), Frank Mason (Kansas), Dillion Brooks (Oregon)
Bill Rafferty Drinking Game: Take a sip every time Bill says, "With a Kiss." Chug a beer every time Bill says, "Onions!" Take a shot every time Bill mentions how lucky we are to be watching young men compete.
Underseeded (outside of Wisconsin and Wichita St.): SMU, Michigan, Oklahoma State
Overseeded: Minnesota, Maryland, South Carolina
Three Things to Consider when Picking your Bracket
Guard Play - I mentioned it a bit earlier in my blurb about Purdue, but I really value great guard play when considering who I am going to take to win. Let's take a look at the backcourts for the past four champions. Villanova (Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Phil Booth, and Jalen Brunson), Duke (Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, and Grayson Allen), Connecticut (Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright), and Louisville (Russ Smith and Peyton Siva). Yeah, I get it, in order to win a championship, you probably are going to have good players at all positions. However, it is crucial to have guys that can stay out of trouble. Like I said earlier, refs are going to be calling games tightly. They want to get to Arizona too. Historically, teams that are bigger and more physical draw more fouls as they play the body more. All it takes is two quick whistles in consecutive possessions to have a star big man get auto benched. I can trust a guard to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court for most of the game. I'm sorry, I just can't trust Issac Haas, Bam Adebayo, or Jonathan Motley to stay out of trouble for 6 consecutive games. Even more important, you need to have guys that can handle the ball in pressure situations, which big men tend to be unable to do. I hate to pick on the Boilermakers, but they are the perfect example. Last year, they used their size and strength to get up 14 points with 5 minutes left against Arkansas Little Rock. At the 5 minute mark, the Trojans implemented a full court press that totally stumped the Boilermakers. The Boilermakers turned the ball over 4 times, as their guards were unable to break the press, and the Trojans sent the game to OT, where they would win. If you don't have a guy that can dribble out of traps and make smart decisions, no lead will ever be big enough to guarantee victory. So when picking your Final Four teams, you should look for squads with talented backcourts. Here are five of my favorite guard combos in the tourney: Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham (Kansas), Monte Morris and Naz Mitrou-Long (Iowa State), Nigel Williams-Gross and Josh Perkins (Gonzaga), Jawun Evans and Jeremy Carroll (Oklahoma State), Shake Milton and Sterling Brown (SMU).
Don't Overvalue the Media when making Picks - Jay Bilas, Dick Vitale, and Jay Williams know a lot about basketball. They know 1,000 x more about the game than we ever will. Still, they aren't perfect, and their analysis is often faulty. Here is a link to predictions made by some of the brightest analysts in the sport. None of them picked the correct champion, and a majority of them picked Michigan State to make the Final Four. Michigan State lost in the first round. Look, I am not saying you should totally block them out of your bracket-making process. They hold very valuable information, and they can introduce you to teams and players that exhibit your favorite style. However, this is your bracket, and you have complete control of it. How many things in life do you have total control over? That's right, there are not very many. Take advantage of it. Obviously, get a little help but make sure each bracket has your own personal touch. If you follow this method, you will have no regrets (or a million).
Upsets are fun but don't go overboard - Brackets are won in April, not March. Focus on picking a national champion rather than picking the craziest upset in the history of the tournament. It is okay to pick a few upsets in the first round. First round games are typically only a point, so take a few chances. However, do not take your chance against a team that has real Final Four aspirations. That is how you end your chances of winning your pool early. It is important that you have ample opportunity to get as many points as you can in the later rounds. Just put yourself in a position where the points can keep piling up, as the tournament moves on. If you can fight the urge to pick Troy over Duke, you should have ample success in your bracket pool.
Well, that is it for me. Good luck in your bracket pool, and I hope these tips can help you out.
The greatest three weeks of the year are upon us. It is time for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The next three weeks are bound to be a roller coaster ride of emotions whether it is caused by your bracket or your favorite team. In this edition of the Daily Three, I am going to try to make your March a bit more emotionally stable. I am going to point out a few teams and players that I really like. I am going to highlight some teams that have some glaring weaknesses that do not mesh well with the single-elimintation format. I will also highlight teams that the Selection Committee gave the cold shoulder, and those that were given a "cake walk." Also, I will give some tips on what I focus on when I pick my bracket. I am not giving you a Final Four or a champion. I just hope this gives you a little more insight for when you make the crucial picks that will make or break your bracket. So, I am going to start with a few thoughts on the selection process.
Selection Process
1. Almost No Bubble Trouble - The Committee was very fortunate this year and didn't catch any serious flak for leaving certain teams out of the tournament. The biggest outcry from the media was Syracuse, but let's be real, that team didn't deserve to make it. A team with an RPI that low (84) has never made the tourney as an at-large team. We can argue the merits of RPI all we want (it is totally outdated), but it is a key ingredient to the Selection's Committee's evaluation of the teams up for a bid. Also, half of ESPN went to Newhouse, so of course the Worldwide Leader is going to push the Syracuse narrative. The only issue I have with the committee on the selection of teams is why do we reward middling power conference teams that are given several opportunities to boost their resume, while we crucify mid-majors, who struggle to find quality opponents to play. Illinois State cannot get Duke to come to their building. Monmouth cannot get Kentucky to come to New Jersey. Heck, it is hard for school high-level mid-majors to schedule games at Top 10 programs' buildings. Even when they can schedule a home and home with a power conference program, there is no guarantee said power conference program will be as prestigious three years after the game was scheduled. If Illinois State scheduled a road game with Indiana three years ago, they would have gotten completely screwed over this year, as Indiana was terrible. Illinois State tried to go out and play a tough team, and it would not be rewarded by the Committee. The Selection Committee must reevaluate how they look at mid-majors and find a way to give them a fair shot at making the tourney as an at-large.
2. Analytics Need to be More Involved in the Process - Although the Committee did not mess up with bubble teams, they completely butchered the seeding. Literally, ten people were comfortable walking out of the meeting room knowing they rated Minnesota ahead of Iowa State, the Big 12 Conference Tournament Champion, Notre Dame, an ACC Conference Championship finalist, and 11 spots ahead of Wisconsin, who swept Minnesota in the season series and made the Big Ten Final. These teams significantly outpaced the Gophers in every important analytical poll except for the RPI, which the Gophers were the highest of the four teams. They were also felt okay with Wichita State being a 10 seed. At first, I thought the Badgers' seeding was the most egregious in the tournament history. I guess a member of the committee thought he could one up the others and simply stated, "Hold my beer." The Shockers are ranked #10 in the Kenpom and yet the Committee felt that they were the 38th best team in the field. That is absolutely preposterous. I am not sitting here saying that analytics need to be the "say all, end all" (Arizona is #20 in the Kenpom but clearly deserved a #2 seed). However when we completely ignore analytics, we find ourselves in situations where higher seeded teams are punished, because they have to play teams that are underseeded. So, everyone is punished, because the Committee was unable to accurately evaluate a team's standing. If the Committee opens itself up to use analytics more in the future, we will have a more balanced field and more reasonable matchups.
3. The Overall Number 1 Seed Gets the Shaft Again - I've spent a little too much time on this section, and I am going to address this very soon
Toughest Road to the Final Four Amongst 1-2 Seeds
1. #1 Villanova Wildcats (East) - I told you I would address this very soon. Typically, the Overall #1 is rewarded with an easier path to the title game. However, the Committee thinks that if you earn this spot, you have to continue to be challenged. If they get out of the first round, the Cats will play one of the tougher #8 seeds in recent memory, the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers were grossly underseeded and do provide some matchup issues for 'Nova. The place to attack the Wildcats is in the paint, and the Badgers have seasoned vet, Nigel Hayes, and Frank Kaminsky Lite, Ethan Happ. The Badgers boast as much tournament experience as any other team in the country. The senior class has been to 3 Sweet Sixteens and 2 Final Fours. This team knows what it takes and will give the 'Cats everything their best shot. If they get past Wisconsin (or Virginia Tech, I guess), Nova' will most likely take on Florida or Virginia. The Gators are ferocious defensively, ranking #4 in the defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Kevaughn Allen is a silent assassin for the Gators. One second, he will have 0 points on 0-2 shooting, and then a second later, he will have hit 4 threes in a minute. The Gators did lose star center, John Egbunu, and have lost 3 of 6 since the injury. However, I will chalk that up to a tough schedule (Kentucky is obviously very good, Vanderbilt provided matchup issues for the Gators and beat them twice). The Cavaliers of Virginia gave 'Nova a battle earlier this season. The Cavs were winning by 9 points at halftime and almost came away with the victory. It took a miracle tip-in from the Cats to pull out the victory in Philly. I would expect a very similar result if these two teams meet. Then, the Elite Eight could bring them the Duke Blue Devils, who are arguably the most talented team in the country: Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson. They still have Grayson Allen and Harry Giles waiting on the bench. The Committee did not do Villanova any favors. If they can get past murderer's row, they should be in good shape to win the whole thing.
2. #2 Kentucky Wildcats (South) - The Committee must be filled with dog people. Kentucky will not have an easy game throughout their tournament. Their first game will be against Northern Kentucky. That team will be filled with young men that were snubbed by Coach Cal and the Wildcats. They have probably been waiting for an opportunity to take them down their entire college careers. After the Norse, they could get Wichita State, remember, the most abhorrently underseeded team in history. Seeing this matchup, you can't help but have flashbacks of the 2014 Second Round matchup between the two schools. The Shockers were the top seed playing against #8 Kentucky. Led by Julius Randle and James Young, the Wildcats stunned the Shockers and ended Wichita's shot at history. There will be different players on the court in this possible matchup, but the narrative will definitely run. After this, the Wildcats might get UCLA if both teams can get this far. UCLA upset Kentucky in Lexington in December as Lonzo Ball stole the show. It would be an incredible matchup and would make for great TV. It won't make the Wildcats' lives any easier. If Kentucky can get through the Bruins, the Tar Heels will most likely be waiting for them (if it is Butler, they can provide some issues as well). Kentucky won the earlier meeting between these two schools as Malik Monk went off for the Wildcats. Both teams managed to drop over 100 points. If form holds and these two teams meet again, that will not happen again. UNC is healthier and playing better ball than they were in December. It will be very tough to make it out of this region alive.
3. #1 Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest) - Unlike the first two teams, the Jayhawks have a little easier of a road. They will definitely have obstacles to overcome to get to Arizona. In the Second Round, Kansas could face a Miami team that has very athletic guards that can keep up with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham. Also, their coach, Jim Larrañaga, knows a thing about pulling off a major upset over a #1 seed (2006 George Mason over UConn). If Miami loses, they will play the Michigan State Tom Izzos. Everybody knows about Coach Izzo's pedigree in March. If they get to the Sweet Sixteen, they will play against Monte Morris (you will be hearing more about him and the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones did the impossible and beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse earlier this season. That almost never happens, but Iowa State did it. Iowa State is also the hottest team in the country, winning 9 of their last 10 games. It is unfair for this to be a matchup in my opinion, but the Committee only has so many places it can put teams. In the Elite Eight, Kansas would likely play Louisville, who I don't think provide that difficult of a matchup. Louisville is only decent on offense, and Kansas' great guard play can easily overcome the high-pressure D of the Cardinals. Overall, it is a difficult journey to Arizona for Kansas. Bunch that with their history of falling short, it may be another early exit for the Jayhawks.
1-2 Seeds with "Cake Walks"
1. #1 Gonzaga Wildcats (West) - As you will learn, the West Region is very weak. In the second round, the Bulldogs will take on Northwestern or Vanderbilt. The 'Cats are a great story, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus is an awesome basketball mom. However, they don't stand a chance against Gonzaga. Vanderbilt lost 15 games this year. They are talented, but Gonzaga's stifling defense will probably stop the Commodores from shooting the three effectively, which they need to do to win basketball games. In the Sweet Sixteen, they will play either the Mountaineers of West Virginia or the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Mountaineers play an up-tempo game that involves pressing full court and causing turnovers. Over the course of the season, this style can really take its toll on the players executing it. West Virginia has made a Final Four recently, but they normally falter by the Sweet Sixteen. Against a team with talented guards like Nigel Williams-Gross, Jordan Matthews, and Josh Perkins, I'm guessing West Virginia will fall again. Notre Dame is able to spread out the floor and get the shots that they like. However, I think the Zags are just way more athletic and should be able to contain the Irish offense. Jonathan Williams III should be able to keep Notre Dame's best athlete on hold, Bonzie Colson, and the Bulldogs will get to the Elite Eight where they will face the Wildcats of Arizona. Gonzaga beat Arizona earlier this season, so they will definitely go into that game knowing it can win. The Zags were given the easiest path to Glendale, and they will try to take advantage of it.
2. #2 Arizona Wildcats (West) - I guess they don't hate all wildcats. The Wildcats should have no trouble getting to the Elite Eight. In the Second Round, they will get a mid-major at-large squad in St. Mary's or VCU that will be unable to match up with the 'Cats athletically. The West has the weakest #3 and #6 seeded team, Florida State and Maryland, respectively. Florida State really struggles away from Tallahassee, and Maryland is incredibly overrated. I watched the Turtles in D.C. on Friday, and they played possibly the worst ten minutes of offensive basketball I have seen all season. They just stand around and hope Melo Trimble will do something for them. Also, both schools will have to fly across the country to take on the Wildcats. There should be no issues in the Sweet Sixteen. The final test will be difficult, but just like Gonzaga, this will be their only difficult matchup on their way to the Final Four. It will just be a wonderful game, and the 'Cats are hoping they will be able to play in a Final Four in their home state.
3. #1 North Carolina Tar Heels (South) - Some have said that the South is the deepest region in the bracket. Fortunately for the Heels, the great teams are in the bottom half of the bracket (Kentucky, UCLA, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita State), so they will only have to play one of them. In the second round, they will get either Seton Hall, who is talented but lack depth and only runs a six man rotation, or Arkansas, who play "40 minutes of hell," but the Tar Heels will turn it into "5 minutes of hell." In the Sweet Sixteen, the Heels will most likely play the Butler Bulldogs, who lack size inside. UNC has a revolving door of big men that they can throw at Butler and will dominate in the paint. If not Butler, they could get #12 seed Middle Tennessee State. The Cinderella story will be a nice storyline, but storylines do not win basketball games. In the Elite Eight, they will definitely have a tough matchup. However, their opponent will probably be so fatigued trying to get through their side of the draw, UNC will be able to outlast whoever they play. The Tar Heels get a nice "cake walk" into the Elite Eight and by then, their tough opponent may not even matter.
Three 3-4 Seeded Teams that Will Struggle to Make It Out of the First Weekend
1. #3 Baylor Bears (East) - It is hard to find a team that played better in the Non-Conference slate than the Bears. They went undefeated and picked up wins over at-large tourney teams: Oregon, Xavier, Louisville, VCU, and Michigan State. They got off to a great start in conference too, but they started to wade off of the course towards the end of the season. The hard Big 12 season got to them, and they finished the year 5-6. In most cases, I would probably give the team a pass and think that getting out of conference will do them some good. However, Baylor has been upset in the first round the past two seasons. In 2015, they lost as a #3 seed to RJ Hunter and Georgia State (last year, they were a #5). I think they will get past the first round this year, as New Mexico State does not have a player with NBA potential like Georgia State and Yale did. However if they beat the Aggies, they will have to play possibly the #6 seed in the tournament's history. The Mustangs finished 30-4 and won the AAC Regular Season and Conference Tournament. This team was underseeded by a line or two, and I think the Bears will pay the price for it (damn committee). If the Bears exit early yet again, Scott Drew will definitely have to answer some tough questions during the offseason.
2. #4 Purdue Boilermakers (Midwest) - Purdue seems to be a very popular underdog pick to get to the Final Four. People are enamored by their size led by Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan. Guess what? They were even bigger last year with A.J. Hammons, and they lost in the first round. I'm not a giant fan of teams that depend on physicality and size in the tournament, because it is common for these teams to rack up fouls and have to sit their best players. See, players are not the only ones looking to move on in the tournament. Refs, also, want to move along and get to the Final Four. I will get more into this in a later segment. Purdue, also, are set to play two of the hottest teams in the country. First, they will be playing the Vermont Catamounts, who currently have the longest winning steak in the country (21 games). Vermont does score a good amount around the basket, so it will really be a true test of how important Purdue's size is. If they move on, Purdue is likely to match up with Iowa State, who is probably the hottest power conference team in the country. They boast the most underrated player in the country, Monte Morris, and Deonte Burton creates serious matchup problems. Purdue-Iowa State will be the perfect test to see what prevails in the tourney, guard play or size.
3. #4 Butler Bulldogs (South) - Butler really didn't get a bad draw. They have a pretty easy opponent in the first round, Winthrop, and they will either play the worst #5 seed ever in Minnesota, or a strong #12 seed, but a #12 seed nonetheless, Middle Tennessee State. My issue with the Bulldogs is that they are very dependent on three point shooting, and they have just been cold over the past month. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and two of those wins were over St. John's and Depaul, which really aren't that impressive. They have been incredibly cold over the past two games only hitting 25% of their three point attempts. If they shoot like this from behind the arc, they could lose to any of the three teams I mentioned, as they will have trouble making up the points in the paint or from mid-range. If Butler can't figure it out from outside, they might just be out, period.
Players that You Will Know and Love by the End of this Weekend
Monte Morris (Iowa State, #11) - Monte Morris is the most under appreciated player in the country. In four years at Iowa State, Morris has been overshadowed by teammates Georges Niang, DeAndre Kane, Jameel McKay, and Melvin Ejim. During this time, Morris broke the Iowa State record for most assists, constantly averaged double digit points and 6 assists a game since his sophomore year, and led the country in assist/turnover ratio for all four years!! He has a 5.71 assist-turover ratio this season, which is a full 1.5 points better than the number that the second best player. Somehow, he is not one of the finalists for the Bob Cousy Award (best point guard in the country), which is an incredible farce. Morris also singlehandedly handed Kansas their aforementioned only loss at home this season. Just watch these highlights from the game. He is greatly involved in almost every play. Morris will have his hands full this week with popular upset pick Nevada, and if they win, most likely Purdue. If Morris can muscle his way through these physical teams, he will show the country who the best point guard in the country is, and he doesn't need some bogus award to say otherwise.
E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island, #0) - I've written about E.C.'s story in the past. In the first game of last year's season, Matthews tore his ACL, essentially crushing Rhode Island's tourney hopes ten minutes into the start of the season. With Matthews returning this season at full strength, the Rams were the media's Cinderella before the season started, and the Rams were going to end the school's 18-year tournament drought. However, they did not have the greatest regular season. It took a while for Matthews to get going, and the Rams finished the season 21-9 and squarely on the bubble. Unsure that they could get into the tournament strictly on its resume, the Rams knew they had to win the A-10 Tournament to leave it out of the Committee's hands. Matthews would end up carrying the Rams, averaging 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds over their three games. He was named the A-10 Tournament MVP and most importantly got Rhode Island back into the tournament. During the broadcast on Friday, you will definitely hear the announcers mention Matthews's comeback from his significant injury, and if they win, you will most likely hear it on Sunday. If Matthews and the Rams can pull off upsets over Creighton and Oregon, Matthews's path from Torn ACL to Sweet Sixteen will be one of the most inspirational stories of March.
JaCorey Williams (Middle Tennessee State, #22) - Okay, the two names you will probably come to remember are Giddy Potts (awesome name) and last year's hero, Reggie Upshaw. However, you should definitely get to know JaCorey Williams. Williams was originally with the Arkansas Razorbacks but struggled getting onto the court, as he was behind Bobby Portis. Yeah, it is normally pretty hard to pass a guy that ended up being SEC Player of the Year. Following Portis's departure, Williams was bound to finally get significant minutes, but he was dismissed from the team due to multiple off-the-court incidents (all I could find were forgery and possibly an incident with a bouncer). MTSU coach, Kermit Davis (another name you will probably remember), gave Williams a second chance and both parties are clearly benefitting. The Blue Raiders ran away with Conference USA and are one of the hottest upset picks this week. Williams led the team in scoring and rebounding, and he was named Conference USA Player of the Year. Williams is an example of a man that was given a second chance and took advantage of it. This weekend, Williams will be a significant piece of a Middle Tennessee team that will be looking to shock the country for a second straight March.
Rapid Fire
Best Round One Matchups: Michigan-Oklahoma State, Nevada-Iowa State, Marquette-South Carolina
Round One Matchups You Can Skip: Cincinnati-KSU/Wake Forest, Jacksonville State-Louisville, St, Mary's-VCU (It has nothing to do with the fact they are mid-majors, St. Mary's is just so slow)
Best Nicknames: Catamounts, Norse, Privateers
Unheralded Freshmen Sidekicks You Should Know: T.J. Leaf (Lonzo Ball - UCLA), Nick Ward (Miles Bridges - Michigan State), Frank Jackson (Jayson Tatum - Duke)
Ice in Their Vines: Melo Trimble (Maryland), Frank Mason (Kansas), Dillion Brooks (Oregon)
Bill Rafferty Drinking Game: Take a sip every time Bill says, "With a Kiss." Chug a beer every time Bill says, "Onions!" Take a shot every time Bill mentions how lucky we are to be watching young men compete.
Underseeded (outside of Wisconsin and Wichita St.): SMU, Michigan, Oklahoma State
Overseeded: Minnesota, Maryland, South Carolina
Three Things to Consider when Picking your Bracket
Guard Play - I mentioned it a bit earlier in my blurb about Purdue, but I really value great guard play when considering who I am going to take to win. Let's take a look at the backcourts for the past four champions. Villanova (Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Phil Booth, and Jalen Brunson), Duke (Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, and Grayson Allen), Connecticut (Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright), and Louisville (Russ Smith and Peyton Siva). Yeah, I get it, in order to win a championship, you probably are going to have good players at all positions. However, it is crucial to have guys that can stay out of trouble. Like I said earlier, refs are going to be calling games tightly. They want to get to Arizona too. Historically, teams that are bigger and more physical draw more fouls as they play the body more. All it takes is two quick whistles in consecutive possessions to have a star big man get auto benched. I can trust a guard to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court for most of the game. I'm sorry, I just can't trust Issac Haas, Bam Adebayo, or Jonathan Motley to stay out of trouble for 6 consecutive games. Even more important, you need to have guys that can handle the ball in pressure situations, which big men tend to be unable to do. I hate to pick on the Boilermakers, but they are the perfect example. Last year, they used their size and strength to get up 14 points with 5 minutes left against Arkansas Little Rock. At the 5 minute mark, the Trojans implemented a full court press that totally stumped the Boilermakers. The Boilermakers turned the ball over 4 times, as their guards were unable to break the press, and the Trojans sent the game to OT, where they would win. If you don't have a guy that can dribble out of traps and make smart decisions, no lead will ever be big enough to guarantee victory. So when picking your Final Four teams, you should look for squads with talented backcourts. Here are five of my favorite guard combos in the tourney: Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham (Kansas), Monte Morris and Naz Mitrou-Long (Iowa State), Nigel Williams-Gross and Josh Perkins (Gonzaga), Jawun Evans and Jeremy Carroll (Oklahoma State), Shake Milton and Sterling Brown (SMU).
Don't Overvalue the Media when making Picks - Jay Bilas, Dick Vitale, and Jay Williams know a lot about basketball. They know 1,000 x more about the game than we ever will. Still, they aren't perfect, and their analysis is often faulty. Here is a link to predictions made by some of the brightest analysts in the sport. None of them picked the correct champion, and a majority of them picked Michigan State to make the Final Four. Michigan State lost in the first round. Look, I am not saying you should totally block them out of your bracket-making process. They hold very valuable information, and they can introduce you to teams and players that exhibit your favorite style. However, this is your bracket, and you have complete control of it. How many things in life do you have total control over? That's right, there are not very many. Take advantage of it. Obviously, get a little help but make sure each bracket has your own personal touch. If you follow this method, you will have no regrets (or a million).
Upsets are fun but don't go overboard - Brackets are won in April, not March. Focus on picking a national champion rather than picking the craziest upset in the history of the tournament. It is okay to pick a few upsets in the first round. First round games are typically only a point, so take a few chances. However, do not take your chance against a team that has real Final Four aspirations. That is how you end your chances of winning your pool early. It is important that you have ample opportunity to get as many points as you can in the later rounds. Just put yourself in a position where the points can keep piling up, as the tournament moves on. If you can fight the urge to pick Troy over Duke, you should have ample success in your bracket pool.
Well, that is it for me. Good luck in your bracket pool, and I hope these tips can help you out.
Sunday, March 12, 2017
Daily Three 3/12
Hello,
It is Selection Sunday, one of the best days of the year. We got three picks today (no write-ups, as I headed to watch the Badgers). We finished the six game slates with a nice 4-2 record, so today should be a cinch.
NCAAB
Troy Titans -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Texas State Bobcats
Cincinnati Bearcats +1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs SMU Mustangs
Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 4-2
Overall: 101-93-7 (+89.5 Units)
March: 19-19 (-10.5 Units)
It is Selection Sunday, one of the best days of the year. We got three picks today (no write-ups, as I headed to watch the Badgers). We finished the six game slates with a nice 4-2 record, so today should be a cinch.
NCAAB
Troy Titans -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Texas State Bobcats
Cincinnati Bearcats +1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs SMU Mustangs
Michigan Wolverines vs Wisconsin Badgers -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 4-2
Overall: 101-93-7 (+89.5 Units)
March: 19-19 (-10.5 Units)
Saturday, March 11, 2017
Daily Three 3/11
Hello,
Sorry for not posting anything yesterday. Traveling and the Big Ten Tourney took up my time. However, I do have a little bit of time before the games start in D.C. today. I will be picking both games in the District, as well as four others. This will be the last six game day of the season. It is somewhat sad as we had moderate success with this format. However, it is probably best we just stick to three in the future. No write-ups, as I am in a rush, but hopefully good picks.
NCAAB
Michigan Wolverines vs Minnesota Golden Gophers +4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Colorado State Rams vs Nevada Wolfpack -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Duke Blue Devils -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Arizona Wildcats +2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Oregon Ducks
UC Davis Aggies vs UC Irvine Anteaters -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Thursday: 2-4
Overall: 97-91-7 (+73.5 Units)
March: 15-17 (-26. 5 Units)
Sorry for not posting anything yesterday. Traveling and the Big Ten Tourney took up my time. However, I do have a little bit of time before the games start in D.C. today. I will be picking both games in the District, as well as four others. This will be the last six game day of the season. It is somewhat sad as we had moderate success with this format. However, it is probably best we just stick to three in the future. No write-ups, as I am in a rush, but hopefully good picks.
NCAAB
Michigan Wolverines vs Minnesota Golden Gophers +4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Northwestern Wildcats vs Wisconsin Badgers -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Colorado State Rams vs Nevada Wolfpack -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Duke Blue Devils -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish
Arizona Wildcats +2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Oregon Ducks
UC Davis Aggies vs UC Irvine Anteaters -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Thursday: 2-4
Overall: 97-91-7 (+73.5 Units)
March: 15-17 (-26. 5 Units)
Thursday, March 9, 2017
Daily Three 3/9
Hello,
We finally got the 3-0 night we were looking for. With the confidence of a perfect night, we will continue to take March by storm. A lot of travel for me today, so I am going to give six picks with no write-ups. Enjoy!
NCAAB
Tennessee Volunteers vs Georgia Bulldogs -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Western Michigan Broncos -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Ball State Cardinals
Montana Grizzlies -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Idaho Vandals
Texas A&M Aggies vs Vanderbilt Commodores -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Toledo Rockets vs Ohio Bobcats -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 95-87-7 (+95.5 Units)
March: 13-13 (-4.5 Units)
We finally got the 3-0 night we were looking for. With the confidence of a perfect night, we will continue to take March by storm. A lot of travel for me today, so I am going to give six picks with no write-ups. Enjoy!
NCAAB
Tennessee Volunteers vs Georgia Bulldogs -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Duke Blue Devils vs Louisville Cardinals -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Western Michigan Broncos -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Ball State Cardinals
Montana Grizzlies -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Idaho Vandals
Texas A&M Aggies vs Vanderbilt Commodores -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Toledo Rockets vs Ohio Bobcats -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 95-87-7 (+95.5 Units)
March: 13-13 (-4.5 Units)
Wednesday, March 8, 2017
Daily Three 3/8
Hello,
Well, South Dakota State missed a free throw with five seconds left to cover. Brutal! We cannot dwell on missed opportunities. We must move on. I have a great feeling about our three picks tonight.
NCAAB
Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Time: 4:30 EST TV: ESPN2
During Conference Championship week, we are going to encounter matchups where one team is fighting hard and trying to continue their season, while the other team is burned out and just wants to hit the University Golf Course. I think this matchup provides us an opportunity to take advantage of Cornhuskers team that has apparently checked out. The Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions are coming into this game with massive losing streaks. The Cornhuskers have lost four straight games, while the Nittany Lions have lost five straight games. Neither of these streaks are very encouraging obviously. However, Penn State has been fighting hard. During the losing streak, they have taken NCAA Tournament teams, Purdue and Minnesota, down to the wire. They lost on a buzzer beater against Ohio State, and they gave a solid effort against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, which is a very hard place to play. The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, have been absolutely blown out in every game during their losing streak. Every loss has been by at least fifteen points with the worst loss coming on Sunday in their own building to the Wolverines (a 93-57 beating). The Cornhuskers appear to be over the 2016-2017 basketball season. That is unfortunate for coach, Tim Miles, who may be coaching for his job today. I think he will get one more chance to prove himself, considering he got this program to the Big Dance, a few seasons ago. Regardless, his job status will not be enough to get his team to stop wobbling. Expect the Nittany Lions to throw the knockout punch tonight in the Verizon Center.
Rutgers Scarlett Knights +8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Time: 7 EST TV: Big Ten Network
I just wanted to take the opportunity to recognize the amazing job that Rutgers coach, Steve Pikiell, has done at the state university of New Jersey. When Pikiell took the job last year, he inherited a total wasteland. The program had dealt with scandals, poor play, and a total lack of interest from the fan base. Now at face value, 14-17 overall and 3-15 in conference doesn't look like much, but for this program, it is actually quite the accomplishment. Pikiell got this team to play hard on the defensive side of the ball and really pushed Big Ten opponents all year long. They took Wisconsin to overtime, lost to Northwestern and Iowa by very small margins, and they may have ended Illinois' Big Dane hopes on Saturday by upsetting the Illini in their building. Heck, Pikiell got the Scarlet Knights to be single digit underdogs in a Big Ten tournament game. So, hats off to Coach Pikiell. For his last act of magic, he will find a way to cover this spread.
Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Bucknell Bison -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Time: 7:30 EST TV: CBSSN
This Patriot League Final is between two previous Cinderellas, who will be looking to fit into another slipper. In 2012, the Mountain Hawks, led by Portland Trail Blazers star, CJ McCollum, upset the #2 seed Duke Blue Devils in one of the bigger NCAA Tournament upsets in history. The win set the stage for McCollum to move onto the NBA and become a consistent scoring threat for Portland. In 2005, The Bison dished out a shocker by beating the #3 Kansas Jayhawks. That Bison roster did not have NBA studs on it, but it did shock a Kansas squad that included future NBA players, Wayne Simien and Darnell Arthur. Although no one in those games will be playing tonight, it is important to note that whoever wins this game has a great chance to pull off an upset next weekend. I think the Bison will be that team. First, the Patriot League plays all of their tournament games on the home courts of the higher seed. Bucknell is the #1 overall seed in this tournament. Second, the Mountain Hawks are coming off of a double OT thriller against Boston University on Sunday. They are going to have some tired legs and traveling on the bus to Bucknell will probably not help. Lastly, the Bison are just a better team. The Bison are a top 100 Kenpom team at 81, while the Mountain Hawks fall outside the top 100 at 121. The Bison are solid on both sides of the ball rating in the top 100 in both offensive efficiency. Lehigh ranks outside the top 100 in both categories. In the end, I think the home court advantage and overall efficiency advantage that the Bison have will be too much for the Mountain Hawks to overcome. The Bison will roll tonight and dance for the first time since 2013.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 92-87-7 (+68.5 units)
March: 10-13 (-31.5 units)
Well, South Dakota State missed a free throw with five seconds left to cover. Brutal! We cannot dwell on missed opportunities. We must move on. I have a great feeling about our three picks tonight.
NCAAB
Penn State Nittany Lions -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Nebraska Cornhuskers
Time: 4:30 EST TV: ESPN2
During Conference Championship week, we are going to encounter matchups where one team is fighting hard and trying to continue their season, while the other team is burned out and just wants to hit the University Golf Course. I think this matchup provides us an opportunity to take advantage of Cornhuskers team that has apparently checked out. The Cornhuskers and Nittany Lions are coming into this game with massive losing streaks. The Cornhuskers have lost four straight games, while the Nittany Lions have lost five straight games. Neither of these streaks are very encouraging obviously. However, Penn State has been fighting hard. During the losing streak, they have taken NCAA Tournament teams, Purdue and Minnesota, down to the wire. They lost on a buzzer beater against Ohio State, and they gave a solid effort against the Hawkeyes in Iowa City, which is a very hard place to play. The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, have been absolutely blown out in every game during their losing streak. Every loss has been by at least fifteen points with the worst loss coming on Sunday in their own building to the Wolverines (a 93-57 beating). The Cornhuskers appear to be over the 2016-2017 basketball season. That is unfortunate for coach, Tim Miles, who may be coaching for his job today. I think he will get one more chance to prove himself, considering he got this program to the Big Dance, a few seasons ago. Regardless, his job status will not be enough to get his team to stop wobbling. Expect the Nittany Lions to throw the knockout punch tonight in the Verizon Center.
Rutgers Scarlett Knights +8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Ohio State Buckeyes
Time: 7 EST TV: Big Ten Network
I just wanted to take the opportunity to recognize the amazing job that Rutgers coach, Steve Pikiell, has done at the state university of New Jersey. When Pikiell took the job last year, he inherited a total wasteland. The program had dealt with scandals, poor play, and a total lack of interest from the fan base. Now at face value, 14-17 overall and 3-15 in conference doesn't look like much, but for this program, it is actually quite the accomplishment. Pikiell got this team to play hard on the defensive side of the ball and really pushed Big Ten opponents all year long. They took Wisconsin to overtime, lost to Northwestern and Iowa by very small margins, and they may have ended Illinois' Big Dane hopes on Saturday by upsetting the Illini in their building. Heck, Pikiell got the Scarlet Knights to be single digit underdogs in a Big Ten tournament game. So, hats off to Coach Pikiell. For his last act of magic, he will find a way to cover this spread.
Lehigh Mountain Hawks at Bucknell Bison -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Time: 7:30 EST TV: CBSSN
This Patriot League Final is between two previous Cinderellas, who will be looking to fit into another slipper. In 2012, the Mountain Hawks, led by Portland Trail Blazers star, CJ McCollum, upset the #2 seed Duke Blue Devils in one of the bigger NCAA Tournament upsets in history. The win set the stage for McCollum to move onto the NBA and become a consistent scoring threat for Portland. In 2005, The Bison dished out a shocker by beating the #3 Kansas Jayhawks. That Bison roster did not have NBA studs on it, but it did shock a Kansas squad that included future NBA players, Wayne Simien and Darnell Arthur. Although no one in those games will be playing tonight, it is important to note that whoever wins this game has a great chance to pull off an upset next weekend. I think the Bison will be that team. First, the Patriot League plays all of their tournament games on the home courts of the higher seed. Bucknell is the #1 overall seed in this tournament. Second, the Mountain Hawks are coming off of a double OT thriller against Boston University on Sunday. They are going to have some tired legs and traveling on the bus to Bucknell will probably not help. Lastly, the Bison are just a better team. The Bison are a top 100 Kenpom team at 81, while the Mountain Hawks fall outside the top 100 at 121. The Bison are solid on both sides of the ball rating in the top 100 in both offensive efficiency. Lehigh ranks outside the top 100 in both categories. In the end, I think the home court advantage and overall efficiency advantage that the Bison have will be too much for the Mountain Hawks to overcome. The Bison will roll tonight and dance for the first time since 2013.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 92-87-7 (+68.5 units)
March: 10-13 (-31.5 units)
Tuesday, March 7, 2017
Daily Three 3/7
Hello,
Note to self: When you say something is the surest thing in sports, it is most likely not the surest thing in sports. Yes, not only did the Caps fail to cover the spread, but they also lost the game to the Stars. It happened, and we must move on. Four automatic bids will be handed out today. We are going to look at three of them. The one game I will not pick includes the 11-23 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers. As I am sure you can guess, if they get a win tonight, they will be the worst team to ever make the tournament. No team has ever lost more than 20 games, and it made it to the Big Dance. It is also worth noting that 3 of their 11 wins have come over the past few days in the Horizon League Tournament. So, if you truly love watching Cinderella, the Panthers may be the biggest one ever. Anyway, let's get to the other big games tonight.
NCAAB
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash at Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN2
I am not going to lie to you. I don't know a single thing about these two teams. The Mount are ranked 215 in the Kenpom, and the Red Flash are ranked 254. Also, this game will be played at the Mountaineers' home court. Really, I am going with the Mount, because their lacrosse program was nice enough to express interest in me when I was in high school. It is always nice to feel wanted, so I am very grateful for schools that expressed interest. If that does not make you want to go with the Mount tonight, then this isn't the pick for you.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN2
The Mavericks are rated a little higher in the Kenpom, and the two teams split both of their meetings this season. However, it is interesting that the Jackrabbits are the favorites in this game and are getting a push from the sharps. The Mavs have received 55% of the ATS bets so far. Still, the Jackrabbits have given up a point and moved from -1.5 points to -2.5 points. I am going to guess it has to do with the fact that the Jackrabbits are the defending champions, and they gave Maryland a serious fight in last year's NCAA tournament. I'm going hop along with the Jackrabbits tonight.
St. Mary's Gaels +4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
Time: 9 EST TV: ESPN
The WCC Final is always one of the more anticipated games in the early part of Conference Championship Week. In this year's version, we have the two best teams in the conference go head-to-head. The Bulldogs won the two previous meetings between these team pretty handedly by double digits. The Bulldogs have also only lost one game this season. It seems odd that I would go with the Gaels, but that is exactly what I am going to do. As one could imagine with a one loss team, the public is all over Gonzaga. They are currently getting 75% of all ATS bets. Despite the public love for the Bulldogs, they have dropped two points from -6.5 to -4.5. That is a significant dip in the spread, and it shows that the sharps love the Gaels tonight. They are not alone. The Zags have seemed a bit lackadaisical over the past two weeks, and I think this is the Gaels' shot to knock off their arch rivals. The Gaels are going to cover this spread, and then go to the book themselves to collect your winnings (game is being played in Vegas).
Yesterday: 0-2-1
Overall: 91-85-7 (+79.5 Units)
March: 9-11 (-20.5 Units)
Note to self: When you say something is the surest thing in sports, it is most likely not the surest thing in sports. Yes, not only did the Caps fail to cover the spread, but they also lost the game to the Stars. It happened, and we must move on. Four automatic bids will be handed out today. We are going to look at three of them. The one game I will not pick includes the 11-23 Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers. As I am sure you can guess, if they get a win tonight, they will be the worst team to ever make the tournament. No team has ever lost more than 20 games, and it made it to the Big Dance. It is also worth noting that 3 of their 11 wins have come over the past few days in the Horizon League Tournament. So, if you truly love watching Cinderella, the Panthers may be the biggest one ever. Anyway, let's get to the other big games tonight.
NCAAB
St. Francis (PA) Red Flash at Mt. St. Mary's Mountaineers -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN2
I am not going to lie to you. I don't know a single thing about these two teams. The Mount are ranked 215 in the Kenpom, and the Red Flash are ranked 254. Also, this game will be played at the Mountaineers' home court. Really, I am going with the Mount, because their lacrosse program was nice enough to express interest in me when I was in high school. It is always nice to feel wanted, so I am very grateful for schools that expressed interest. If that does not make you want to go with the Mount tonight, then this isn't the pick for you.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Nebraska-Omaha Mavericks
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN2
The Mavericks are rated a little higher in the Kenpom, and the two teams split both of their meetings this season. However, it is interesting that the Jackrabbits are the favorites in this game and are getting a push from the sharps. The Mavs have received 55% of the ATS bets so far. Still, the Jackrabbits have given up a point and moved from -1.5 points to -2.5 points. I am going to guess it has to do with the fact that the Jackrabbits are the defending champions, and they gave Maryland a serious fight in last year's NCAA tournament. I'm going hop along with the Jackrabbits tonight.
St. Mary's Gaels +4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Gonzaga Bulldogs
Time: 9 EST TV: ESPN
The WCC Final is always one of the more anticipated games in the early part of Conference Championship Week. In this year's version, we have the two best teams in the conference go head-to-head. The Bulldogs won the two previous meetings between these team pretty handedly by double digits. The Bulldogs have also only lost one game this season. It seems odd that I would go with the Gaels, but that is exactly what I am going to do. As one could imagine with a one loss team, the public is all over Gonzaga. They are currently getting 75% of all ATS bets. Despite the public love for the Bulldogs, they have dropped two points from -6.5 to -4.5. That is a significant dip in the spread, and it shows that the sharps love the Gaels tonight. They are not alone. The Zags have seemed a bit lackadaisical over the past two weeks, and I think this is the Gaels' shot to knock off their arch rivals. The Gaels are going to cover this spread, and then go to the book themselves to collect your winnings (game is being played in Vegas).
Yesterday: 0-2-1
Overall: 91-85-7 (+79.5 Units)
March: 9-11 (-20.5 Units)
Monday, March 6, 2017
Daily Three 3/6
Hello,
We enjoyed a nice 2-1 effort yesterday as the Badgers finally figured out their issues. However, I do have to defend the team that was our only loss yesterday. The Illinois State Redbirds are a very good basketball team and deserve to hear their named called by Greg Gumbel on Sunday. I'm sure yesterday was the first time many of the selection committee members watched this team, and well, it is a damn shame. They are currently a top 50 team in the Kenpom and RPI (will probably go down as the week continue). There are teams outside of the top 50 in both rating systems that will probably make the tourney ahead of them. If anything, yesterday was proof that Wichita State is really good, and there is going to be a 1 or 2 seed grumbling on Sunday when they find out that they will be playing the Shockers on Saturday or Sunday. So Selection Committee, do what is right and get the Redbirds into the Big Dance.
Tonight, we got three more bids being handed out, and we will be looking at two of them. Also, we got our favorite hockey team playing at home, so we should be in an exciting night of basketball and hockey.
NHL
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals -1.5, +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7:30 EST TV: NBCSN
I don't need to say too much about this one. The Capitals have won 15 straight games on home ice, and the streak does not appear to be ending any time soon. There is a little concern with the fact that they have struggled to score goals in the first two games of this home stand. However, I will credit it towards playing two very familiar teams that are in the same division. Those teams need to grind to keep up with the Caps. The Stars are the total opposite. If they try to grind, the Caps will just out-finesse them. It has been a lost season in Dallas, and it is most likely going to get worse tonight in the District. Go with the surest thing in sports at the moment, the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center.
NCAAB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN
In the Southern Conference Championship Game, we got the Buccaneers and the Spartans duking it out for the conference's only tournament bid. When I originally looked at this matchup, I was leaning towards the Spartans. They had won both previous meetings between the two schools this season, and they were the number one seed in the tournament. However, after a deeper look, it appears that the Bucs are the pick here. First, it is incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in the season, especially a team that is better than you. The Kenpom has the Bucs ranked as the 66th best team in the country, while the Spartans are the 123rd best team in the land. Second, you very rarely find a lower seed favored by so much. The public will normally just look at the seeds for the teams and just assume the higher seed is better. In this case, 66% of ATS bets are on the Spartans. These bets have helped push the line down a point. We appreciate that public, because now we just need the Bucs to win by 6 instead of 5. Lastly, the most startling revelation I came across involved UNC Greensboro's spot in the luck category of the Kenpom. As I'm sure you remember, we picked on USC a couple of weeks ago, because they were the luckiest team in the country. We knew that regression was in store for the Trojans and that they would get rocked by the Arizona Wildcats. We were correct with that judgement, as the Trojans lost, and we hit our lock of the month (the Trojans would go onto lose to sub top 100 Arizona State later that week, justifying our point even more). Well, guess who the luckiest team in the country is currently? If you guessed the UNC Greensboro Spartans, you would be correct. Kenpom says that they are very fortunate to have their current record and essentially says they were lucky to beat the Bucs at all. Here at the Daily Three, we know when a team's fortunes are about to change. Tonight, we know the Spartans' NCAA tourney aspirations will turn into an NIT berth (first place team in each conference is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if they don't qualify for the NCAA Tournament). So, go with the Bucs tonight and cheer on as they return to the Big Dance.
College of Charleston Cougars +2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Time: 7 PM EST TV: CBSSN
In the Colonial Athletic Association Championship, we have two teams that split their two meetings this season. I have two reasons that the Cougars should be able to cover this spread. First, the Cougars are essentially playing a home game. I mentioned during the first conference tournament right up that most of these games will be at neutral sites. Well, this one is being played in Charleston, because Charleston is one of the best cities in America (no joke). It is worth noting that is not the same gym that the Cougars play their home games, but it is nonetheless in the same city. Many bettors probably assume that the game is being played at some neutral site where the fan bases will cancel each other out. That will not be the case tonight in this game, we should expect a very pro-Cougar crowd. The second reason is we got some sharp money going our way. 67% of ATS bets have been placed on the Seahawks thus far. However, the spread has dropped a half point to 2.5. The sharps are probably aware, just like we are, that this is a virtual home game for the Cougars. I'm going to side with the "home team" and the sharp bettors tonight in this matchup of the Carolinas.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 91-83-6 (+99.5 Units)
March: 9-9 (-0.5 Units)
We enjoyed a nice 2-1 effort yesterday as the Badgers finally figured out their issues. However, I do have to defend the team that was our only loss yesterday. The Illinois State Redbirds are a very good basketball team and deserve to hear their named called by Greg Gumbel on Sunday. I'm sure yesterday was the first time many of the selection committee members watched this team, and well, it is a damn shame. They are currently a top 50 team in the Kenpom and RPI (will probably go down as the week continue). There are teams outside of the top 50 in both rating systems that will probably make the tourney ahead of them. If anything, yesterday was proof that Wichita State is really good, and there is going to be a 1 or 2 seed grumbling on Sunday when they find out that they will be playing the Shockers on Saturday or Sunday. So Selection Committee, do what is right and get the Redbirds into the Big Dance.
Tonight, we got three more bids being handed out, and we will be looking at two of them. Also, we got our favorite hockey team playing at home, so we should be in an exciting night of basketball and hockey.
NHL
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals -1.5, +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7:30 EST TV: NBCSN
I don't need to say too much about this one. The Capitals have won 15 straight games on home ice, and the streak does not appear to be ending any time soon. There is a little concern with the fact that they have struggled to score goals in the first two games of this home stand. However, I will credit it towards playing two very familiar teams that are in the same division. Those teams need to grind to keep up with the Caps. The Stars are the total opposite. If they try to grind, the Caps will just out-finesse them. It has been a lost season in Dallas, and it is most likely going to get worse tonight in the District. Go with the surest thing in sports at the moment, the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center.
NCAAB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs UNC Greensboro Spartans
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN
In the Southern Conference Championship Game, we got the Buccaneers and the Spartans duking it out for the conference's only tournament bid. When I originally looked at this matchup, I was leaning towards the Spartans. They had won both previous meetings between the two schools this season, and they were the number one seed in the tournament. However, after a deeper look, it appears that the Bucs are the pick here. First, it is incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in the season, especially a team that is better than you. The Kenpom has the Bucs ranked as the 66th best team in the country, while the Spartans are the 123rd best team in the land. Second, you very rarely find a lower seed favored by so much. The public will normally just look at the seeds for the teams and just assume the higher seed is better. In this case, 66% of ATS bets are on the Spartans. These bets have helped push the line down a point. We appreciate that public, because now we just need the Bucs to win by 6 instead of 5. Lastly, the most startling revelation I came across involved UNC Greensboro's spot in the luck category of the Kenpom. As I'm sure you remember, we picked on USC a couple of weeks ago, because they were the luckiest team in the country. We knew that regression was in store for the Trojans and that they would get rocked by the Arizona Wildcats. We were correct with that judgement, as the Trojans lost, and we hit our lock of the month (the Trojans would go onto lose to sub top 100 Arizona State later that week, justifying our point even more). Well, guess who the luckiest team in the country is currently? If you guessed the UNC Greensboro Spartans, you would be correct. Kenpom says that they are very fortunate to have their current record and essentially says they were lucky to beat the Bucs at all. Here at the Daily Three, we know when a team's fortunes are about to change. Tonight, we know the Spartans' NCAA tourney aspirations will turn into an NIT berth (first place team in each conference is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if they don't qualify for the NCAA Tournament). So, go with the Bucs tonight and cheer on as they return to the Big Dance.
College of Charleston Cougars +2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Time: 7 PM EST TV: CBSSN
In the Colonial Athletic Association Championship, we have two teams that split their two meetings this season. I have two reasons that the Cougars should be able to cover this spread. First, the Cougars are essentially playing a home game. I mentioned during the first conference tournament right up that most of these games will be at neutral sites. Well, this one is being played in Charleston, because Charleston is one of the best cities in America (no joke). It is worth noting that is not the same gym that the Cougars play their home games, but it is nonetheless in the same city. Many bettors probably assume that the game is being played at some neutral site where the fan bases will cancel each other out. That will not be the case tonight in this game, we should expect a very pro-Cougar crowd. The second reason is we got some sharp money going our way. 67% of ATS bets have been placed on the Seahawks thus far. However, the spread has dropped a half point to 2.5. The sharps are probably aware, just like we are, that this is a virtual home game for the Cougars. I'm going to side with the "home team" and the sharp bettors tonight in this matchup of the Carolinas.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 91-83-6 (+99.5 Units)
March: 9-9 (-0.5 Units)
Sunday, March 5, 2017
Daily Three 3/5
Hello,
3-3 yesterday. That Duke game was just a terrible beat. Three picks today, no write-ups.
NCAAB
Wichita State Shockers vs Illinois State Redbirds +7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
I know, I'm crazy. However, sharp money don't lie.
Wright State Raiders at Northern Kentucky Norse Pick 'Em (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 3-3
Overall: 89-82-6 (+91.5 Units)
March: 7-8 (-8.5 Units)
3-3 yesterday. That Duke game was just a terrible beat. Three picks today, no write-ups.
NCAAB
Wichita State Shockers vs Illinois State Redbirds +7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Minnesota Golden Gophers at Wisconsin Badgers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
I know, I'm crazy. However, sharp money don't lie.
Wright State Raiders at Northern Kentucky Norse Pick 'Em (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 3-3
Overall: 89-82-6 (+91.5 Units)
March: 7-8 (-8.5 Units)
Saturday, March 4, 2017
Daily Three 3/4
Hello,
Weird, the Wizards beat the Warriors at home on Tuesday, and then lose to the Raptors yesterday. Also weird, the Coyotes won a road hockey game. I guess anything can happen in this great thing that we call sport. You know the drill, six games, no write-ups. Let's do it.
NCAAB
The Citadel Bulldogs vs UNC Greensboro Spartans -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores +4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Creighton Bluejays at Marquette Golden Eagles -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Southern Illinois Salukis vs Illinois State Redbirds -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
San Francisco Dons -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Sanata Clara Broncos
Duke Blue Devils +6.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 86-79-6 (+94.5 Units)
March: 4-5 (-5.5 Units)
Weird, the Wizards beat the Warriors at home on Tuesday, and then lose to the Raptors yesterday. Also weird, the Coyotes won a road hockey game. I guess anything can happen in this great thing that we call sport. You know the drill, six games, no write-ups. Let's do it.
NCAAB
The Citadel Bulldogs vs UNC Greensboro Spartans -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Florida Gators at Vanderbilt Commodores +4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Creighton Bluejays at Marquette Golden Eagles -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Southern Illinois Salukis vs Illinois State Redbirds -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
San Francisco Dons -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs Sanata Clara Broncos
Duke Blue Devils +6.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at North Carolina Tar Heels
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 86-79-6 (+94.5 Units)
March: 4-5 (-5.5 Units)
Friday, March 3, 2017
Daily Three 3/3
Hello,
So, the homer thing didn't work out. The spread of the Badger game was ridiculous, and Iowa was the obvious pick. Hopefully, Wisco can figure it out before the tournament starts in a couple of weeks. It wiill be interesting to see what the committee does with them if they lose on Sunday to Minnesota and then lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament? Hopefully, they will just win those two games and just put their issues to rest. Despite the one loss, we end up positive on the day as the Sabres came through with a couple of late goals, and the Aces took care of business in Arch Madness. Today, we are all over the place, as we touch the NHL, NBA, and college hoops.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes -1.5, +125 (10 units wagered, 12.5 units won)
It is the same drill as yesterday. The Coyotes are playing their third game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back set. They are the worst road team in hockey and give up lots of goals without scoring them. Also, the Coyotes will be sending out their backup tender.The Hurricanes are actually a fairly decent home team and should have no issue scoring all over this deflated 'Yotes team. It definitely helps that their best player, Jeff Skinner, will be back tonight. We are going to keep picking on the Coyotes all the way to the bank.
NBA
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
It is a well-known fact that the Wizards are really good at home, and I mean really good at home. These two teams played in Toronto on Wednesday, and the Wizards came away with the nine point victory. The Wiz Kids got twenty-seven points off the bench from Bojan Bogdanovic, as the their bench is finally starting to materialize after some nice acquisitions around the trade deadline. No longer needing to depend on their starting five, the Wizards are getting better and should be to turn their progress into a huge win against a Raptors team struggling to find its way since the Kyle Lowry injury.
NCAAB
Niagra Purple Eagles vs Monmouth Hawks -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Everyone must remember this Monmouth Hawks team. They are the team with the very eccentric bench. Also, they were the team that the committee screwed over last season by leaving them out of the tourney. Weirdly enough, the Hawks have a higher RPI and Kenpom this season than they did last year, and they are getting absolutely no at-large talk. Anyway, tonight they begin their MAAC tournament tonight looking to extend their sixteen game winning steak. After the unfortunate experience they went through last March, the Hawks are going do everything they can to take care of business in Buffalo, so they can taste the Big Dance this season. Obviously, nothing can be taken for granted during March, and I think the Hawks are the perfect team to relay that message. Their opponent, the Purple Eagles of Niagra, are just not very good. The Hawks should get their tourney off to a great start against the this Purple Eagles team. Go with the Hawks tonight, it probably will not be the last time you do so.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 85-77-6 (+105.5 Units)
March: 3-3 (+5 Units)
So, the homer thing didn't work out. The spread of the Badger game was ridiculous, and Iowa was the obvious pick. Hopefully, Wisco can figure it out before the tournament starts in a couple of weeks. It wiill be interesting to see what the committee does with them if they lose on Sunday to Minnesota and then lose their first game in the Big Ten tournament? Hopefully, they will just win those two games and just put their issues to rest. Despite the one loss, we end up positive on the day as the Sabres came through with a couple of late goals, and the Aces took care of business in Arch Madness. Today, we are all over the place, as we touch the NHL, NBA, and college hoops.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Carolina Hurricanes -1.5, +125 (10 units wagered, 12.5 units won)
It is the same drill as yesterday. The Coyotes are playing their third game in four nights and the second of a back-to-back set. They are the worst road team in hockey and give up lots of goals without scoring them. Also, the Coyotes will be sending out their backup tender.The Hurricanes are actually a fairly decent home team and should have no issue scoring all over this deflated 'Yotes team. It definitely helps that their best player, Jeff Skinner, will be back tonight. We are going to keep picking on the Coyotes all the way to the bank.
NBA
Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
It is a well-known fact that the Wizards are really good at home, and I mean really good at home. These two teams played in Toronto on Wednesday, and the Wizards came away with the nine point victory. The Wiz Kids got twenty-seven points off the bench from Bojan Bogdanovic, as the their bench is finally starting to materialize after some nice acquisitions around the trade deadline. No longer needing to depend on their starting five, the Wizards are getting better and should be to turn their progress into a huge win against a Raptors team struggling to find its way since the Kyle Lowry injury.
NCAAB
Niagra Purple Eagles vs Monmouth Hawks -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Everyone must remember this Monmouth Hawks team. They are the team with the very eccentric bench. Also, they were the team that the committee screwed over last season by leaving them out of the tourney. Weirdly enough, the Hawks have a higher RPI and Kenpom this season than they did last year, and they are getting absolutely no at-large talk. Anyway, tonight they begin their MAAC tournament tonight looking to extend their sixteen game winning steak. After the unfortunate experience they went through last March, the Hawks are going do everything they can to take care of business in Buffalo, so they can taste the Big Dance this season. Obviously, nothing can be taken for granted during March, and I think the Hawks are the perfect team to relay that message. Their opponent, the Purple Eagles of Niagra, are just not very good. The Hawks should get their tourney off to a great start against the this Purple Eagles team. Go with the Hawks tonight, it probably will not be the last time you do so.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 85-77-6 (+105.5 Units)
March: 3-3 (+5 Units)
Thursday, March 2, 2017
Daily Three 3/2
Hello,
1-2 was not the start that we were anticipating for the month of March. However, we really just caught a couple of bad breaks in the GW and Lightning games. Regardless, we have a big Thursday night slate ahead of us, and we are ready to take over.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres -1.5, +170 (10 units wagered, 17 won)
I know what your first thought may be. Noah, these two teams played on Sunday, and the Coyotes won. Yes, that is very true. You know what else is true? The Sabres were playing their backup tender on a back-to-back set that was part of a weird two game trip to the rocky mountain range. You know what else is also true? Shane Doan is pissed off at the Coyotes. He has played for this mismanaged organization for 21 years and has never shown frustration for playing in the desert. However, Sunday's trade of best friend Martin Hanzal may have been the final straw. Just watch Doan in this interview following the Hanzal trade. He has to hold himself back from blasting the organization. That being said, the facial expressions kind of say it all. In their first game after the infamous interview, the Coyotes got smoked by the Bruins 4-1. We have already mentioned in this space that the Coyotes are the worst road team in hockey and that their goal differential is pretty horrendous (the Avalanche save them from being worst in this category. Tonight, they continue their trek to the east coast and play in Buffalo. This game will be the first of a back-to-back set for the 'Yotes, so that will surly be on their minds as well. The Sabres aren't great, but they got Robin Lehner back in net for this one, and it's just a fun time rooting for Jack Eichel. I think the Sabres will get a big W against this Coyotes team that is just counting down the days until their season is over.
NCAAB
Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Call it a homer pick if you want, but there is some legitimacy to taking the Badgers here. First, the line is set this high for a reason. The Badgers have just been struggling to find a groove the past two weeks. Iowa is coming off of two big wins over Indiana back in Iowa City and Maryland in College Park. It is somewhat hard to believe this spread got to double digits. However, it did, so we have to consider Vegas must know something that the we don't. Apparently, the sharps know something is up too. The spread opened up at 10.5 points. Despite only receiving 35% of ATS bets, the Badgers have given away another 2 points and are now 12.5 point favorites. It is also worth noting that the Badgers have finished in the Top 4 of the Big Ten every season since 2000. With a win tonight, they would clinch another Top 4 finish. I'm going to follow the sharp dollars that pushed this spread and history, which we must always learn from. Go with the Badgers to turn this rough patch in their season around.
Indiana State Sycamores at Evansville Aces -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
It is March, and the conference tournaments have officially begun. For the next week and a half, I will include at least one conference tournament game into the blog. Doing this should introduce you to new teams before the brackets are released. Who knows? Maybe, a pick from this blog will help you pick that major upset that will have everyone talking the next morning. Unfortunately though, that huge upset will not be coming from the teams involved in this game. The Sycamores and Aces are both having down years. If a team is playing on the first day of their conference's tournament, it is a pretty good sign it is having a down year. The two teams have played each other twice this season and split the two meetings. Both meetings finished within one possession, so these two teams are fairly evenly matched. One thing to remember with conference tournaments (not all of them however) is that they will be played on neutral courts for the most part. So, I will look at the Kenpom to differentiate the two squads. Evansville is rated at 161, while Indiana State is at 195. Most times, Kenpom is not going to be enough to just pick a spread. However, when the teams appear so evenly matched, a significant difference in Kenpom, like the one exhibited here, can actually tell the tale. We are going to take the Aces to move on in Arch Madness.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 83-76-6 (+89.5 Units)
March: 1-2 (-11 Units)
1-2 was not the start that we were anticipating for the month of March. However, we really just caught a couple of bad breaks in the GW and Lightning games. Regardless, we have a big Thursday night slate ahead of us, and we are ready to take over.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres -1.5, +170 (10 units wagered, 17 won)
I know what your first thought may be. Noah, these two teams played on Sunday, and the Coyotes won. Yes, that is very true. You know what else is true? The Sabres were playing their backup tender on a back-to-back set that was part of a weird two game trip to the rocky mountain range. You know what else is also true? Shane Doan is pissed off at the Coyotes. He has played for this mismanaged organization for 21 years and has never shown frustration for playing in the desert. However, Sunday's trade of best friend Martin Hanzal may have been the final straw. Just watch Doan in this interview following the Hanzal trade. He has to hold himself back from blasting the organization. That being said, the facial expressions kind of say it all. In their first game after the infamous interview, the Coyotes got smoked by the Bruins 4-1. We have already mentioned in this space that the Coyotes are the worst road team in hockey and that their goal differential is pretty horrendous (the Avalanche save them from being worst in this category. Tonight, they continue their trek to the east coast and play in Buffalo. This game will be the first of a back-to-back set for the 'Yotes, so that will surly be on their minds as well. The Sabres aren't great, but they got Robin Lehner back in net for this one, and it's just a fun time rooting for Jack Eichel. I think the Sabres will get a big W against this Coyotes team that is just counting down the days until their season is over.
NCAAB
Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Call it a homer pick if you want, but there is some legitimacy to taking the Badgers here. First, the line is set this high for a reason. The Badgers have just been struggling to find a groove the past two weeks. Iowa is coming off of two big wins over Indiana back in Iowa City and Maryland in College Park. It is somewhat hard to believe this spread got to double digits. However, it did, so we have to consider Vegas must know something that the we don't. Apparently, the sharps know something is up too. The spread opened up at 10.5 points. Despite only receiving 35% of ATS bets, the Badgers have given away another 2 points and are now 12.5 point favorites. It is also worth noting that the Badgers have finished in the Top 4 of the Big Ten every season since 2000. With a win tonight, they would clinch another Top 4 finish. I'm going to follow the sharp dollars that pushed this spread and history, which we must always learn from. Go with the Badgers to turn this rough patch in their season around.
Indiana State Sycamores at Evansville Aces -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
It is March, and the conference tournaments have officially begun. For the next week and a half, I will include at least one conference tournament game into the blog. Doing this should introduce you to new teams before the brackets are released. Who knows? Maybe, a pick from this blog will help you pick that major upset that will have everyone talking the next morning. Unfortunately though, that huge upset will not be coming from the teams involved in this game. The Sycamores and Aces are both having down years. If a team is playing on the first day of their conference's tournament, it is a pretty good sign it is having a down year. The two teams have played each other twice this season and split the two meetings. Both meetings finished within one possession, so these two teams are fairly evenly matched. One thing to remember with conference tournaments (not all of them however) is that they will be played on neutral courts for the most part. So, I will look at the Kenpom to differentiate the two squads. Evansville is rated at 161, while Indiana State is at 195. Most times, Kenpom is not going to be enough to just pick a spread. However, when the teams appear so evenly matched, a significant difference in Kenpom, like the one exhibited here, can actually tell the tale. We are going to take the Aces to move on in Arch Madness.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 83-76-6 (+89.5 Units)
March: 1-2 (-11 Units)
Wednesday, March 1, 2017
Daily Three 3/1
Hello,
After a nice break last night, we are back tonight to get the new month started right. We will be hitting the ice and the hardwood, looking to have a very successful March.
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Here is a link to my blog post from Monday. No joke, this is basically the same exact situation. Carolina will be playing its second of a back-to-back set. Their best player, Jeff Skinner, looks like he will not be suiting up tonight. Plus, the Lightning are still on fire. We are going to keep banking on the Bolts to light up the net and get us another plus victory.
NCAAB
Richmond Spiders -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at UMass Minutemen
George Washington Colonials -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Fordham Rams
Here is the situation. We have two superior Atlantic 10 schools playing on the road as identical favorites. The Spiders and Colonials are both on rolls and have not showed any signs of slowing down. Within the past week, the Spiders have destroyed the Rams, and the Colonials blew out the Minutemen. The Rams and Minutemen, respectively, have had a rough stretch and a rough season. Unfortunately for them, I expect it to continue on their home courts tonight. Go with the road favorites in these A-10 matchups.
Overall: 82-74-6 (+100.5 Units)
After a nice break last night, we are back tonight to get the new month started right. We will be hitting the ice and the hardwood, looking to have a very successful March.
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes at Tampa Bay Lightning -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Here is a link to my blog post from Monday. No joke, this is basically the same exact situation. Carolina will be playing its second of a back-to-back set. Their best player, Jeff Skinner, looks like he will not be suiting up tonight. Plus, the Lightning are still on fire. We are going to keep banking on the Bolts to light up the net and get us another plus victory.
NCAAB
Richmond Spiders -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at UMass Minutemen
George Washington Colonials -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Fordham Rams
Here is the situation. We have two superior Atlantic 10 schools playing on the road as identical favorites. The Spiders and Colonials are both on rolls and have not showed any signs of slowing down. Within the past week, the Spiders have destroyed the Rams, and the Colonials blew out the Minutemen. The Rams and Minutemen, respectively, have had a rough stretch and a rough season. Unfortunately for them, I expect it to continue on their home courts tonight. Go with the road favorites in these A-10 matchups.
Overall: 82-74-6 (+100.5 Units)