Daily Three - March Madness Edition

 Hello,

 The greatest three weeks of the year are upon us. It is time for the NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament. The next three weeks are bound to be a roller coaster ride of emotions whether it is caused by your bracket or your favorite team. In this edition of the Daily Three, I am going to try to make your March a bit more emotionally stable. I am going to point out a few teams and players that I really like. I am going to highlight some teams that have some glaring weaknesses that do not mesh well with the single-elimintation format. I will also highlight teams that the Selection Committee gave the cold shoulder, and those that were given a "cake walk." Also, I will give some tips on what I focus on when I pick my bracket. I am not giving you a Final Four or a champion. I just hope this gives you a little more insight for when you make the crucial picks that will make or break your bracket. So, I am going to start with a few thoughts on the selection process.

Selection Process

1. Almost No Bubble Trouble - The Committee was very fortunate this year and didn't catch any serious flak for leaving certain teams out of the tournament. The biggest outcry from the media was Syracuse, but let's be real, that team didn't deserve to make it. A team with an RPI that low (84) has never made the tourney as an at-large team. We can argue the merits of RPI all we want (it is totally outdated), but it is a key ingredient to the Selection's Committee's evaluation of the teams up for a bid. Also, half of ESPN went to Newhouse, so of course the Worldwide Leader is going to push the Syracuse narrative. The only issue I have with the committee on the selection of teams is why do we reward middling power conference teams that are given several opportunities to boost their resume, while we crucify mid-majors, who struggle to find quality opponents to play. Illinois State cannot get Duke to come to their building. Monmouth cannot get Kentucky to come to New Jersey. Heck, it is hard for school high-level mid-majors to schedule games at Top 10 programs' buildings. Even when they can schedule a home and home with a power conference program, there is no guarantee said power conference program will be as prestigious three years after the game was scheduled. If Illinois State scheduled a road game with Indiana three years ago, they would have gotten completely screwed over this year, as Indiana was terrible. Illinois State tried to go out and play a tough team, and it would not be rewarded by the Committee. The Selection Committee must reevaluate how they look at mid-majors and find a way to give them a fair shot at making the tourney as an at-large.

2. Analytics Need to be More Involved in the Process - Although the Committee did not mess up with bubble teams, they completely butchered the seeding. Literally, ten people were comfortable walking out of the meeting room knowing they rated Minnesota ahead of Iowa State, the Big 12 Conference Tournament Champion, Notre Dame, an ACC Conference Championship finalist, and 11 spots ahead of Wisconsin, who swept Minnesota in the season series and made the Big Ten Final. These teams significantly outpaced the Gophers in every important analytical poll except for the RPI, which the Gophers were the highest of the four teams. They were also felt okay with Wichita State being a 10 seed. At first, I thought the Badgers' seeding was the most egregious in the tournament history. I guess a member of the committee thought he could one up the others and simply stated, "Hold my beer." The Shockers are ranked #10 in the Kenpom and yet the Committee felt that they were the 38th best team in the field. That is absolutely preposterous. I am not sitting here saying that analytics need to be the "say all, end all" (Arizona is #20 in the Kenpom but clearly deserved a #2 seed). However when we completely ignore analytics, we find ourselves in situations where higher seeded teams are punished, because they have to play teams that are underseeded. So, everyone is punished, because the Committee was unable to accurately evaluate a team's standing. If the Committee opens itself up to use analytics more in the future, we will have a more balanced field and more reasonable matchups.

3. The Overall Number 1 Seed Gets the Shaft Again - I've spent a little too much time on this section, and I am going to address this very soon

Toughest Road to the Final Four Amongst 1-2 Seeds

1. #1 Villanova Wildcats (East) - I told you I would address this very soon. Typically, the Overall #1 is rewarded with an easier path to the title game. However, the Committee thinks that if you earn this spot, you have to continue to be challenged. If they get out of the first round, the Cats will play one of the tougher #8 seeds in recent memory, the Wisconsin Badgers. The Badgers were grossly underseeded and do provide some matchup issues for 'Nova. The place to attack the Wildcats is in the paint, and the Badgers have seasoned vet, Nigel Hayes, and Frank Kaminsky Lite, Ethan Happ. The Badgers boast as much tournament experience as any other team in the country. The senior class has been to 3 Sweet Sixteens and 2 Final Fours. This team knows what it takes and will give the 'Cats everything their best shot. If they get past Wisconsin (or Virginia Tech, I guess), Nova' will most likely take on Florida or Virginia. The Gators are ferocious defensively, ranking #4 in the defensive efficiency according to Kenpom. Kevaughn Allen is a silent assassin for the Gators. One second, he will have 0 points on 0-2 shooting, and then a second later, he will have hit 4 threes in a minute. The Gators did lose star center, John Egbunu, and have lost 3 of 6 since the injury. However, I will chalk that up to a tough schedule (Kentucky is obviously very good, Vanderbilt provided matchup issues for the Gators and beat them twice). The Cavaliers of Virginia gave 'Nova a battle earlier this season. The Cavs were winning by 9 points at halftime and almost came away with the victory. It took a miracle tip-in from the Cats to pull out the victory in Philly. I would expect a very similar result if these two teams meet. Then, the Elite Eight could bring them the Duke Blue Devils, who are arguably the most talented team in the country: Jayson Tatum, Frank Jackson, Luke Kennard, Amile Jefferson. They still have Grayson Allen and Harry Giles waiting on the bench. The Committee did not do Villanova any favors. If they can get past murderer's row, they should be in good shape to win the whole thing.

2. #2 Kentucky Wildcats (South) - The Committee must be filled with dog people. Kentucky will not have an easy game throughout their tournament. Their first game will be against Northern Kentucky. That team will be filled with young men that were snubbed by Coach Cal and the Wildcats. They have probably been waiting for an opportunity to take them down their entire college careers. After the Norse, they could get Wichita State, remember, the most abhorrently underseeded team in history. Seeing this matchup, you can't help but have flashbacks of the 2014 Second Round matchup between the two schools. The Shockers were the top seed playing against #8 Kentucky. Led by Julius Randle and James Young, the Wildcats stunned the Shockers and ended Wichita's shot at history. There will be different players on the court in this possible matchup, but the narrative will definitely run. After this, the Wildcats might get UCLA if both teams can get this far. UCLA upset Kentucky in Lexington in December as Lonzo Ball stole the show. It would be an incredible matchup and would make for great TV. It won't make the Wildcats' lives any easier. If Kentucky can get through the Bruins, the Tar Heels will most likely be waiting for them (if it is Butler, they can provide some issues as well). Kentucky won the earlier meeting between these two schools as Malik Monk went off for the Wildcats. Both teams managed to drop over 100 points. If form holds and these two teams meet again, that will not happen again. UNC is healthier and playing better ball than they were in December. It will be very tough to make it out of this region alive.

3. #1 Kansas Jayhawks (Midwest) - Unlike the first two teams, the Jayhawks have a little easier of a road. They will definitely have obstacles to overcome to get to Arizona. In the Second Round, Kansas could face a Miami team that has very athletic guards that can keep up with Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham. Also, their coach, Jim Larrañaga, knows a thing about pulling off a major upset over a #1 seed (2006 George Mason over UConn). If Miami loses, they will play the Michigan State Tom Izzos. Everybody knows about Coach Izzo's pedigree in March. If they get to the Sweet Sixteen, they will play against Monte Morris (you will be hearing more about him and the Iowa State Cyclones. The Cyclones did the impossible and beat Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse earlier this season. That almost never happens, but Iowa State did it. Iowa State is also the hottest team in the country, winning 9 of their last 10 games. It is unfair for this to be a matchup in my opinion, but the Committee only has so many places it can put teams. In the Elite Eight, Kansas would likely play Louisville, who I don't think provide that difficult of a matchup. Louisville is only decent on offense, and Kansas' great guard play can easily overcome the high-pressure D of the Cardinals. Overall, it is a difficult journey to Arizona for Kansas. Bunch that with their history of falling short, it may be another early exit for the Jayhawks. 

1-2 Seeds with "Cake Walks" 

1. #1 Gonzaga Wildcats (West) - As you will learn, the West Region is very weak. In the second round, the Bulldogs will take on Northwestern or Vanderbilt. The 'Cats are a great story, and Julia Louis-Dreyfus is an awesome basketball mom. However, they don't stand a chance against Gonzaga. Vanderbilt lost 15 games this year. They are talented, but Gonzaga's stifling defense will probably stop the Commodores from shooting the three effectively, which they need to do to win basketball games. In the Sweet Sixteen, they will play either the Mountaineers of West Virginia or the Fighting Irish of Notre Dame. The Mountaineers play an up-tempo game that involves pressing full court and causing turnovers. Over the course of the season, this style can really take its toll on the players executing it. West Virginia has made a Final Four recently, but they normally falter by the Sweet Sixteen. Against a team with talented guards like Nigel Williams-Gross, Jordan Matthews, and Josh Perkins, I'm guessing West Virginia will fall again. Notre Dame is able to spread out the floor and get the shots that they like. However, I think the Zags are just way more athletic and should be able to contain the Irish offense. Jonathan Williams III should be able to keep Notre Dame's best athlete on hold, Bonzie Colson, and the Bulldogs will get to the Elite Eight where they will face the Wildcats of Arizona. Gonzaga beat Arizona earlier this season, so they will definitely go into that game knowing it can win. The Zags were given the easiest path to Glendale, and they will try to take advantage of it.

2. #2 Arizona Wildcats (West) - I guess they don't hate all wildcats. The Wildcats should have no trouble getting to the Elite Eight. In the Second Round, they will get a mid-major at-large squad in St. Mary's or VCU that will be unable to match up with the 'Cats athletically. The West has the weakest #3 and #6 seeded team, Florida State and Maryland, respectively. Florida State really struggles away from Tallahassee, and Maryland is incredibly overrated. I watched the Turtles in D.C. on Friday, and they played possibly the worst ten minutes of offensive basketball I have seen all season. They just stand around and hope Melo Trimble will do something for them. Also, both schools will have to fly across the country to take on the Wildcats. There should be no issues in the Sweet Sixteen. The final test will be difficult, but just like Gonzaga, this will be their only difficult matchup on their way to the Final Four. It will just be a wonderful game, and the 'Cats are hoping they will be able to play in a Final Four in their home state. 

3. #1 North Carolina Tar Heels (South) - Some have said that the South is the deepest region in the bracket. Fortunately for the Heels, the great teams are in the bottom half of the bracket (Kentucky, UCLA, Cincinnati, Dayton, Wichita State), so they will only have to play one of them. In the second round, they will get either Seton Hall, who is talented but lack depth and only runs a six man rotation, or Arkansas, who play "40 minutes of hell," but the Tar Heels will turn it into "5 minutes of hell." In the Sweet Sixteen, the Heels will most likely play the Butler Bulldogs, who lack size inside. UNC has a revolving door of big men that they can throw at Butler and will dominate in the paint. If not Butler, they could get #12 seed Middle Tennessee State. The Cinderella story will be a nice storyline, but storylines do not win basketball games. In the Elite Eight, they will definitely have a tough matchup. However, their opponent will probably be so fatigued trying to get through their side of the draw, UNC will be able to outlast whoever they play. The Tar Heels get a nice "cake walk" into the Elite Eight and by then, their tough opponent may not even matter.

Three 3-4 Seeded Teams that Will Struggle to Make It Out of the First Weekend 

1. #3 Baylor Bears (East) - It is hard to find a team that played better in the Non-Conference slate than the Bears. They went undefeated and picked up wins over at-large tourney teams: Oregon, Xavier, Louisville, VCU, and Michigan State. They got off to a great start in conference too, but they started to wade off of the course towards the end of the season. The hard Big 12 season got to them, and they finished the year 5-6. In most cases, I would probably give the team a pass and think that getting out of conference will do them some good. However, Baylor has been upset in the first round the past two seasons. In 2015, they lost as a #3 seed to RJ Hunter and Georgia State (last year, they were a #5). I think they will get past the first round this year, as New Mexico State does not have a player with NBA potential like Georgia State and Yale did. However if they beat the Aggies, they will have to play possibly the #6 seed in the tournament's history. The Mustangs finished 30-4 and won the AAC Regular Season and Conference Tournament. This team was underseeded by a line or two, and I think the Bears will pay the price for it (damn committee). If the Bears exit early yet again, Scott Drew will definitely have to answer some tough questions during the offseason. 

2. #4 Purdue Boilermakers (Midwest) - Purdue seems to be a very popular underdog pick to get to the Final Four. People are enamored by their size led by Isaac Haas and Caleb Swanigan. Guess what? They were even bigger last year with A.J. Hammons, and they lost in the first round. I'm not a giant fan of teams that depend on physicality and size in the tournament, because it is common for these teams to rack up fouls and have to sit their best players. See, players are not the only ones looking to move on in the tournament. Refs, also, want to move along and get to the Final Four. I will get more into this in a later segment. Purdue, also, are set to play two of the hottest teams in the country. First, they will be playing the Vermont Catamounts, who currently have the longest winning steak in the country (21 games). Vermont does score a good amount around the basket, so it will really be a true test of how important Purdue's size is. If they move on, Purdue is likely to match up with Iowa State, who is probably the hottest power conference team in the country. They boast the most underrated player in the country, Monte Morris, and Deonte Burton creates serious matchup problems. Purdue-Iowa State will be the perfect test to see what prevails in the tourney, guard play or size. 

3. #4 Butler Bulldogs (South) - Butler really didn't get a bad draw. They have a pretty easy opponent in the first round, Winthrop, and they will either play the worst #5 seed ever in Minnesota, or a strong #12 seed, but a #12 seed nonetheless, Middle Tennessee State. My issue with the Bulldogs is that they are very dependent on three point shooting, and they have just been cold over the past month. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, and two of those wins were over St. John's and Depaul, which really aren't that impressive. They have been incredibly cold over the past two games only hitting 25% of their three point attempts. If they shoot like this from behind the arc, they could lose to any of the three teams I mentioned, as they will have trouble making up the points in the paint or from mid-range. If Butler can't figure it out from outside, they might just be out, period. 

Players that You Will Know and Love by the End of this Weekend

Monte Morris (Iowa State, #11) - Monte Morris is the most under appreciated player in the country. In four years at Iowa State, Morris has been overshadowed by teammates Georges Niang, DeAndre Kane, Jameel McKay, and Melvin Ejim. During this time, Morris broke the Iowa State record for most assists, constantly averaged double digit points and 6 assists a game since his sophomore year, and led the country in assist/turnover ratio for all four years!! He has a 5.71 assist-turover ratio this season, which is a full 1.5 points better than the number that the second best player. Somehow, he is not one of the finalists for the Bob Cousy Award (best point guard in the country), which is an incredible farce. Morris also singlehandedly handed Kansas their aforementioned only loss at home this season. Just watch these highlights from the game. He is greatly involved in almost every play. Morris will have his hands full this week with popular upset pick Nevada, and if they win, most likely Purdue. If Morris can muscle his way through these physical teams, he will show the country who the best point guard in the country is, and he doesn't need some bogus award to say otherwise. 

E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island, #0) - I've written about E.C.'s story in the past. In the first game of last year's season, Matthews tore his ACL, essentially crushing Rhode Island's tourney hopes ten minutes into the start of the season. With Matthews returning this season at full strength, the Rams were the media's Cinderella before the season started, and the Rams were going to end the school's 18-year tournament drought. However, they did not have the greatest regular season. It took a while for Matthews to get going, and the Rams finished the season 21-9 and squarely on the bubble. Unsure that they could get into the tournament strictly on its resume, the Rams knew they had to win the A-10 Tournament to leave it out of the Committee's hands. Matthews would end up carrying the Rams, averaging 19.5 points and 5.7 rebounds over their three games. He was named the A-10 Tournament MVP and most importantly got Rhode Island back into the tournament. During the broadcast on Friday, you will definitely hear the announcers mention Matthews's comeback from his significant injury, and if they win, you will most likely hear it on Sunday. If Matthews and the Rams can pull off upsets over Creighton and Oregon, Matthews's path from Torn ACL to Sweet Sixteen will be one of the most inspirational stories of March. 

JaCorey Williams (Middle Tennessee State, #22) - Okay, the two names you will probably come to remember are Giddy Potts (awesome name) and last year's hero, Reggie Upshaw. However, you should definitely get to know JaCorey Williams. Williams was originally with the Arkansas Razorbacks but struggled getting onto the court, as he was behind Bobby Portis. Yeah, it is normally pretty hard to pass a guy that ended up being SEC Player of the Year. Following Portis's departure, Williams was bound to finally get significant minutes, but he was dismissed from the team due to multiple off-the-court incidents (all I could find were forgery and possibly an incident with a bouncer). MTSU coach, Kermit Davis (another name you will probably remember), gave Williams a second chance and both parties are clearly benefitting. The Blue Raiders ran away with Conference USA and are one of the hottest upset picks this week. Williams led the team in scoring and rebounding, and he was named Conference USA Player of the Year. Williams is an example of a man that was given a second chance and took advantage of it. This weekend, Williams will be a significant piece of a Middle Tennessee team that will be looking to shock the country for a second straight March. 

Rapid Fire 

Best Round One Matchups: Michigan-Oklahoma State, Nevada-Iowa State, Marquette-South Carolina

Round One Matchups You Can Skip: Cincinnati-KSU/Wake Forest, Jacksonville State-Louisville, St, Mary's-VCU (It has nothing to do with the fact they are mid-majors, St. Mary's is just so slow)

Best Nicknames: Catamounts, Norse, Privateers 

Unheralded Freshmen Sidekicks You Should Know: T.J. Leaf (Lonzo Ball - UCLA), Nick Ward (Miles Bridges - Michigan State), Frank Jackson (Jayson Tatum - Duke)

Ice in Their Vines: Melo Trimble (Maryland), Frank Mason (Kansas), Dillion Brooks (Oregon)

Bill Rafferty Drinking Game: Take a sip every time Bill says, "With a Kiss." Chug a beer every time Bill says, "Onions!" Take a shot every time Bill mentions how lucky we are to be watching young men compete. 

Underseeded (outside of Wisconsin and Wichita St.): SMU, Michigan, Oklahoma State

Overseeded: Minnesota, Maryland, South Carolina 

Three Things to Consider when Picking your Bracket

Guard Play - I mentioned it a bit earlier in my blurb about Purdue, but I really value great guard play when considering who I am going to take to win. Let's take a look at the backcourts for the past four champions. Villanova (Ryan Arcidiacono, Josh Hart, Phil Booth, and Jalen Brunson), Duke (Tyus Jones, Quinn Cook, and Grayson Allen), Connecticut (Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright), and Louisville (Russ Smith and Peyton Siva). Yeah, I get it, in order to win a championship, you probably are going to have good players at all positions. However, it is crucial to have guys that can stay out of trouble. Like I said earlier, refs are going to be calling games tightly. They want to get to Arizona too. Historically, teams that are bigger and more physical draw more fouls as they play the body more. All it takes is two quick whistles in consecutive possessions to have a star big man get auto benched. I can trust a guard to avoid foul trouble and stay on the court for most of the game. I'm sorry, I just can't trust Issac Haas, Bam Adebayo, or Jonathan Motley to stay out of trouble for 6 consecutive games. Even more important, you need to have guys that can handle the ball in pressure situations, which big men tend to be unable to do. I hate to pick on the Boilermakers, but they are the perfect example. Last year, they used their size and strength to get up 14 points with 5 minutes left against Arkansas Little Rock. At the 5 minute mark, the Trojans implemented a full court press that totally stumped the Boilermakers. The Boilermakers turned the ball over 4 times, as their guards were unable to break the press, and the Trojans sent the game to OT, where they would win. If you don't have a guy that can dribble out of traps and make smart decisions, no lead will ever be big enough to guarantee victory. So when picking your Final Four teams, you should look for squads with talented backcourts. Here are five of my favorite guard combos in the tourney: Frank Mason and Devonte' Graham (Kansas), Monte Morris and Naz Mitrou-Long (Iowa State), Nigel Williams-Gross and Josh Perkins (Gonzaga), Jawun Evans and Jeremy Carroll (Oklahoma State), Shake Milton and Sterling Brown (SMU).

 Don't Overvalue the Media when making Picks - Jay Bilas, Dick Vitale, and Jay Williams know a lot about basketball. They know 1,000 x more about the game than we ever will. Still, they aren't perfect, and their analysis is often faulty. Here is a link to predictions made by some of the brightest analysts in the sport. None of them picked the correct champion, and a majority of them picked Michigan State to make the Final Four. Michigan State lost in the first round. Look, I am not saying you should totally block them out of your bracket-making process. They hold very valuable information, and they can introduce you to teams and players that exhibit your favorite style. However, this is your bracket, and you have complete control of it. How many things in life do you have total control over? That's right, there are not very many. Take advantage of it. Obviously, get a little help but make sure each bracket has your own personal touch. If you follow this method, you will have no regrets (or a million).

 Upsets are fun but don't go overboard - Brackets are won in April, not March. Focus on picking a national champion rather than picking the craziest upset in the history of the tournament. It is okay to pick a few upsets in the first round. First round games are typically only a point, so take a few chances. However, do not take your chance against a team that has real Final Four aspirations. That is how you end your chances of winning your pool early. It is important that you have ample opportunity to get as many points as you can in the later rounds. Just put yourself in a position where the points can keep piling up, as the tournament moves on. If you can fight the urge to pick Troy over Duke, you should have ample success in your bracket pool.



 Well, that is it for me. Good luck in your bracket pool, and I hope these tips can help you out.