Friday, March 24, 2017

Daily Three 3/24

 Hello,

 Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.

 South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
 Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS

 Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.

 UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
 Time: 9:39 TV: CBS

 This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better.  Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.

 Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS

 This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.

Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)

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