Daily Three 3/16

 Hello,

 Sorry for the break in picks. We have taken a few days off for the March Madness preview and to prepare the next three weeks. Thanks for reading the March Madness Edition. It was the most popular blog post to date, and it really spread like wildfire. Thanks for the support, and I will reward you with some great tourney picks. Let's get to it.

UNC Wilmington Seahawks +8 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Virginia Cavaliers
Time: 12:40 EST TV: TruTV

 We are going to up the unit game a little bit for the tourney. This game is a complete contrast of styles. The Seahawks, the Colonial Athletic Champions, depend on keeping the game moving with their guard-centric lineup. Wilmington lacks size (no one on the roster is over 6' 7''), so they depend on guards, C.J. Bryce and Denzel Ingram, to push the tempo and keep the game from being a physical slog. Virginia plays suffocating defense and will run their offense until they get the perfect shot, or the shot clock runs out. Virginia has an experienced floor general in London Perrantes, but they lack any star power. That is okay for Tony Bennett's squad as they have a team-first mentality. I normally stick with defense in the tourney, but I really think that the Seahawks will be able to push the pace in this game. If they can get ahead early, it will force the Cavs to play out of their comfort zone. Even if Virginia is able to come back, they play so slow, that it will never get over the 8 point spread. Also, the sharps are on the Seahawks. The % of ATS bets has been fairly even. However, the spread has moved from 9 points to 8 points since opening. I am not sure who will pull out the victory, but I think the Seahawks well definitely make this the first interesting game of the tourney.

Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders -1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Minnesota Golden Gophers
Time: 4 EST TV: TNT

 There is a lot to consider in this game. For one, a #12 seed is a favorite over a #5 seed. It makes sense. The Blue Raiders are one of the strongest #12 seeds in recent memory, and the Golden Gophers are one of the weakest #5 seeds in recent history. Second, a #12 seed has upset a #5 seed in every tournament since 1985, with the exception of four years. The 12-5 upset is most likely going to happen, and this clearly looks like the best shot. Lastly, in the tournament, we enjoy picking on teams that were overseeded. The Gophers are overseeded. They profile more like a #7 seed, but they were strengthened by a strong RPI and blazing hot finish to their season. Playing against a team that could make an argument for being a #10, I think the Gophers are in trouble today. The Blue Raiders have tourney experience (remember the upset of Michigan State), athletes (Arkansas transfer and Conference USA Player of the Year, JaCory Williams and Reggie Upshaw), and big-time coach, Kermit Davis. Pick the "upset" and go with the Blue Raiders.

 Virginia Tech Hokies vs Wisconsin Badgers -5.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:40 EST TV: CBS

 Just like we pick on teams that are overseeded, we like to pick teams that are underseeded as long as the value there (the media backlash over Wichita State has stripped them of much value tomorrow). I am sure I have harped on this enough, but the Badgers really have a legitimate gripe with their seed. They came in second in the Big Ten, made the Big Ten Tournament Champion, have no bad losses (maybe Iowa at the Kohl Center), and beat Minnesota (2x) and Maryland, who were seeded above them. Wisconsin was punished for a weaker RPI, not the best SOS (they scheduled the Maui, Oklahoma, Creighton (who got worse after their best player tore his ACL, and Syracuse. It is not their fault those teams had down years), and their rough February. The Badgers are going to be fired up, and I don't think that Virginia Tech has the pieces inside to deal with Ethan Happ and Nigel Hayes. The Hokies are going to try to spread the floor and win with the three ball. It is worth noting that the Badgers have been below average in guarding the three this season. However, Bronson Koenig and Zach Showalter are solid defenders and experienced players that should be able to clamp down on Seth Allen and Co. Also, there is a significant experience advantage towards the Badgers. The Wisconsin senior class has played in two Final Fours and three Sweet Sixteens. The Hokies have not been in the tourney since 2007. I think the Badgers win this one, and they win it running away. On Wisconsin!!!

Sunday: 1-2
Overall: 102-95-7 (+78.5 units)
March: 20-21: (-21.5 units)