Daily Three 3/2

 Hello,

 1-2 was not the start that we were anticipating for the month of March. However, we really just caught a couple of bad breaks in the GW and Lightning games. Regardless, we have a big Thursday night slate ahead of us, and we are ready to take over.

NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Buffalo Sabres -1.5, +170 (10 units wagered, 17 won)

 I know what your first thought may be. Noah, these two teams played on Sunday, and the Coyotes won. Yes, that is very true. You know what else is true? The Sabres were playing their backup tender on a back-to-back set that was part of a weird two game trip to the rocky mountain range. You know what else is also true? Shane Doan is pissed off at the Coyotes. He has played for this mismanaged organization for 21 years and has never shown frustration for playing in the desert. However, Sunday's trade of best friend Martin Hanzal may have been the final straw. Just watch Doan in this interview following the Hanzal trade. He has to hold himself back from blasting the organization. That being said, the facial expressions kind of say it all. In their first game after the infamous interview, the Coyotes got smoked by the Bruins 4-1. We have already mentioned in this space that the Coyotes are the worst road team in hockey and that their goal differential is pretty horrendous (the Avalanche save them from being worst in this category. Tonight, they continue their trek to the east coast and play in Buffalo. This game will be the first of a back-to-back set for the 'Yotes, so that will surly be on their minds as well. The Sabres aren't great, but they got Robin Lehner back in net for this one, and it's just a fun time rooting for Jack Eichel. I think the Sabres will get a big W against this Coyotes team that is just counting down the days until their season is over.

NCAAB
Iowa Hawkeyes at Wisconsin Badgers -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Call it a homer pick if you want, but there is some legitimacy to taking the Badgers here. First, the line is set this high for a reason. The Badgers have just been struggling to find a groove the past two weeks. Iowa is coming off of two big wins over Indiana back in Iowa City and Maryland in College Park.  It is somewhat hard to believe this spread got to double digits. However, it did, so we have to consider Vegas must know something that the we don't. Apparently, the sharps know something is up too. The spread opened up at 10.5 points. Despite only receiving 35% of ATS bets, the Badgers have given away another 2 points and are now 12.5 point favorites. It is also worth noting that the Badgers have finished in the Top 4 of the Big Ten every season since 2000. With a win tonight, they would clinch another Top 4 finish.  I'm going to follow the sharp dollars that pushed this spread and history, which we must always learn from. Go with the Badgers to turn this rough patch in their season around.

Indiana State Sycamores at Evansville Aces -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 It is March, and the conference tournaments have officially begun. For the next week and a half, I will include at least one conference tournament game into the blog. Doing this should introduce you to new teams before the brackets are released. Who knows? Maybe, a pick from this blog will help you pick that major upset that will have everyone talking the next morning. Unfortunately though, that huge upset will not be coming from the teams involved in this game. The Sycamores and Aces are both having down years. If a team is playing on the first day of their conference's tournament, it is a pretty good sign it is having a down year. The two teams have played each other twice this season and split the two meetings. Both meetings finished within one possession, so these two teams are fairly evenly matched. One thing to remember with conference tournaments (not all of them however) is that they will be played on neutral courts for the most part. So, I will look at the Kenpom to differentiate the two squads. Evansville is rated at 161, while Indiana State is at 195. Most times, Kenpom is not going to be enough to just pick a spread. However, when the teams appear so evenly matched, a significant difference in Kenpom, like the one exhibited here, can actually tell the tale. We are going to take the Aces to move on in Arch Madness.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 83-76-6 (+89.5 Units)
March: 1-2 (-11 Units)