Daily Three 2/8

 Hello,

 2-1 last night, but a very positive night in terms of units as we get back into positive units for the month thanks to the Washington Capitals, who blew out Carolina last night. We lucked out with an empty netter in the Wild-Jets game (if you want to call it lucking out, there were five goals scored in the first 30 minutes, just one in the last 30 minutes). Also something is clearly wrong with the Wildcats. It seemed last night as if the pressure of making the Big Dance was getting to them. Their next two games will pit them against Wisconsin and Maryland, so we should truly see why this squad is made of. Only one NHL game tonight, so we will be sticking strictly to the hardwood.

NBA
Denver Nuggets +3.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Atlanta Hawks

 This is a case of someone in Vegas with deep pockets knowing something that the general public does not. This game opened up with a spread of -5 favoring the Hawks. This spread already seems somewhat suspicious. The Nuggets are currently eight games under .500, while the Hawks are 8 games above that same mark. Denver will also be without two starters tonight in Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay. The public bought right into the injured Nuggets narrative and jumped on the Hawks. Currently, according to sports insights, a whopping 70% of the public are on the Hawks tonight, in terms of spread bets. Normally when the public is backing a team that much, we will see the spread move the other way. However, thanks to a couple few contraian bettors, the money seems to really be pouring in on the Nuggets. The spread has already moved down a point and a half and the odds keep tilting towards the Nuggets. I would not be shocked if this eventually got down to three. We are going to go with the formula of contrarian bet and sharp money and laugh at the unsuspecting public, when Wilson Chandler and the Nuggets cover this game.

NCAAB
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 We are going to take the same approach with this game that we just did with the Denver-Atlanta game. Currently, there are 61% of spread bets on Baylor. Despite Baylor's popularity, the spread has moved a half point at most books towards the Cowboys, and even a full point at others (spread opened at a point). What could the public be missing about the Cowboys. First, the Kenpom puts the Cowboys at #21. That is a pretty high number for a team that only received one vote in the AP Top 25 this week, which is definitely the first poll the general public uses to evaluate the quality of a college basketball team. Second, the public is probably thrown off by Oklahoma State's record. The Cowboys are currently 15-8, which definitely does not put them at the status of a world beater. However, it should be noted that the Cowboys have played the toughest schedule in the country and those teams have combined to have the greatest defensive efficiency of any set of opponents in the country. The fact that the Cowboys have gotten to seven games over .500 is quite the accomplishment considering what they have constantly faced on the other side of the court. The most astonishing thing about this squad, however, must be the fact that the Cowboys are the second most efficient offense in the country. Yes, efficiency is measured by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Cowboys have scored 124.5 points per 100 possessions just putting them 0.6 points short of first place, which is held by UCLA. Let's put into perspective what an incredible feat this is. UCLA, who has been deemed the most explosive offense in the country by almost every national college basketball media member, has been the most efficient offense by facing a schedule that ranks sub-100 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Cowboys have essentially gotten the same amount of production out of their offense, except they have faced the toughest defenses in the country on a night-to-night basis. Oklahoma State will be doing it again tonight against a Baylor squad that is the sixth most efficient defense in the nation. However, Jawun Evans and the rest of his squad have proven all year, they can score on pretty much anyone. I think Evans and his teammates will be looking to gain a little  respect from the national media and the public. I fully expect that the Cowboys will pull off the "upset" in the house that T. Boone Pickens built.

 UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolfpack -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 As I'm sure you remember, last week, we took a shot on a pretty low-profile game between the San Francisco Dons and the Pepperdine Waves. The Dons beat that spread by double digits, and we got one of our easier wins of the month, which has definitely had its stressful spots. Tonight, I am getting the same vibe in this Mountain West showdown. In Nevada, we got ourselves a top 75 Kenpom squad, while UNLV is a terrible sub-200 Kenpom team. The Wolfpack are in top 55 in terms of offensive efficiency, while the Rebels are sub-250 ranked team in that same category. The numbers just seem to say that the Wolfpack will score on the Rebels at will and that the Rebels will be able to keep up, as they struggle to put the ball in the basket. Expect a massive blowout in Reno tonight, as the Pack continue to keep base with Boise State atop the Mountain West standings.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 54-40-5 (+130.3 units)
February: 10-10-1 (+4.3 units)