Hello,
Last night did not go as planned and showed us that there are no locks in this business. The Panthers lost as huge favorites, and UC Irvine missed nine free throws in a game that they definitely should have won. Despite the disappointment of last night, we got a special night ahead of us. We got a little bang bang, bang bang, bang bang. That's right, all three picks will be late night hammers that will give us great news as we wake up tomorrow morning. But wait, I have even more incredible news. The vaunted lock of the month will also be coming up with our last pick. Yeah, this is our most action-packed edition of Daily Three yet, and it is coming at you, right now!
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers +12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Golden State Warriors
The NBA is back from its week long break, and we get the second half of the season started with a simple contrarian, sharp money. Currently, the Golden State Warriors are receiving 82% of ATS bets, yet the line has actually gone down a point from 13.5 to 12.5. Obviously, the public loves the Warriors, and Chris Paul is not playing tonight. It makes sense that 4/5th of the bets would be on the Warriors. So what exactly is the public missing here? Well, the All-Star break is going to have an impact on these players. These teams haven't a played a real game (the All-Star game does not count) in a week, so it is going to be a little sloppier than usual, and there will probably be more missed shots than usual. Sloppy play and below average shooting leads to less scoring, which ultimately results in closer games. Also, when you consider that the shooting may not be up to par tonight, would you be more comfortable with the team that depends on getting most of its scoring from its big guys inside, or would you prefer the team that shoots from far and away? For tonight, I'm going with the team that scores in the paint and that would be LA, led by Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan. I'm not saying that the Clippers will win this game, but I think factors, like sharp money and rust, will keep this game closer than most people think.
NCAAB
San Francisco Dons -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Loyola Marymount Lions
Roll Dons Roll. That was the motto of one of my rivals in high school (Ironically named Loyola ). Loyola was the one school that my teammates and I never defeated in high school (I am pretty sure). Every lacrosse and soccer game ended in L. I always had rough thoughts about a Don even though, I never knew what it was (according to the USF website, it is meant to represent a distinguished gentleman is Spanish). Despite my consistent struggles with the Dons, one night, I ran into a pick that I could just not resist. The San Francisco Dons were favored by -10.5 over the Pepperdine Waves. The Kenpom numbers were ridiculous, and San Fan was just a great basketball team. In my head, I wondered how I could support a team named the Dons? But then I realized, you have to use your head in this business, not your heart. So, I did just that, and the Dons and I have never looked back. San Fran is ranked considerably higher in the Kenpom than Loyola Marymount, and the Dons won their only previous meeting. Today, I will finally defeat Loyola (Marymount), and I suggest you all join me in this great endeavor.
LOTM: USC Trojans at Arizona Wildcats -8 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)
Yep, it is time for the Lock of the Month. I'm sure you are intrigued by the pick. I am taking a pretty considerable favorite that only has three less losses than their opponent. So, what I do know that has me leaning so heavily towards the Wildcats? I only have one factor for the Trojans, and it is a fairly startling statistic. The USC Trojans are the luckiest team in the country. I am not saying that based on watching them play, or what talking heads say on the college basketball post-game shows. There is an actual statistic that proves this. As I have mentioned before, the Kenpom has its own category for how lucky or unlucky a team is throughout the course of the season. Essentially, it ranks a team's actual record against what the Kenpom's numbers and analytics perceive their record should be. So, Kenpom is essentially saying that USC has been able to overcome their lack of efficiency in comparison to their opponents to pull out wins that they otherwise should not have gotten. This is statistic is useful, because the Trojans should eventually regress back towards the record that the numbers state they should have. So, Arizona was already a better team than the Trojans when you didn't include how lucky USC really is. When you add the luck factor, you begin to clearly see that the Wildcats are just a superior team. So, what exactly makes the Wildcats so good? For one, they currently have 7 foot Finnish projected lottery pick that can drain threes at will, Lauri Markkanen. They have another 7 foot Serbian monster that protects the rim as well as any other big man in the land, Dusan Ristic. Oh, and don't forget the talented guard, who literally has "scorer" written in his DNA, Alonso Trier. Also, they definitely have the best current coach who has never made a final four, Sean Miller. He should definitely be in the talk for Coach of the Year with Scott Drew, Mick Cronin, and Mark Few, amongst others. The fact this team only has three losses this year even though they went through a stretch this season where a quarter of their team was either hurt or suspended is absolutely remarkable. This team does not get much love, because they play their games very late in the night. Despite this hindrance to the East Coast college basketball fan, this team goes out on a nightly basis and wins. Tonight, they get to play a team that they have already beaten and will be looking to build momentum heading into their big showdown with UCLA on Saturday night. Also, let us not forget #bigcatweek. Don't sleep on the Wildcats tonight, and lock in this big bet as I am expecting big things in Tucson tonight.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 73-65-6 (+93 units)
February: 29-34-2 (-31 units)
20 Unit Picks: 1-0
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