Hello,
It has been a while, but after a long hiatus, I am back to make your March Madness viewing more entertaining and to also give you some information that may help you when you are selecting your brackets. Looking back on last year (here is a link), I did a decent job evaluating the players, teams, and regions in the tourney. My one major oversight was obviously, South Carolina, who ended up in the Final Four. I found the most success in highlighting the teams that had the easiest and the most difficult roads to the Final Four. The two finalists, Gonzaga and North Carolina, were on #1 and #3, respectively. The three teams with the most difficult path to the Final Four all failed to make it past the Elite Eight with my number one choice, Villanova, crashing out in the Round of 32. This year, in order to avoid repetition, I am going to change the format of the blog. I am going to start with a few notes on the selection process, and then I am going to go region by region to give some tidbits about the teams, players, and matchups that will fill the next month with much excitement. Again, these are not meant to be predictions or picks. The information below is merely here to give you insight that you may not otherwise have. Your bracket is one of the few things in life you have true control over (slight exaggeration), so you should construct, however you feel best. However, it doesn't hurt to be a little more informed while doing it. So, let's dig into it and see what will make this March so special.
Selection Process
1. A Chaotic Bubble - Last year, the Selection Committee didn't have too much trouble picking at-large teams and avoided the usual controversy that comes with picking the Last 4 teams in. The only true gripe may have been that the Committee continued to punish Mid-Majors for not having the opportunities to pad their resumes every game like the Power 5 schools do. This year, however, was one of the most crowded bubbles in recent memory as many teams failed to do much late in the season to stay floating. For the most part, the Selection Committee did a decent job selecting the correct at-large teams. I only have two legitimate gripes, and they involved the two last teams into the field. My first gripe is with the Arizona State Sun Devils. Look, I understand that beating two #1 seeds in the same season is an incredible feat but winning two games is not your entire resume. The Committee Chair said that we must remember that games in December are just as important as games in February. That's great Chair, I agree with you. So, why didn't you evaluate Arizona State that way? The Sun Devils finished 9th in the Pac 12. 9th!!!!!!! Five teams ahead of them couldn't even sniff the bubble. The third place team, UCLA is headed to Dayton with them. College basketball has had significant trouble trying to convince the casual sports fan that the regular season is relevant. When you allow two wins to undermine your evaluation of an entire team's resume, it further proves that point. Crazy things can happen in small sample sizes, which is why we usually allow larger samples of data to guide our decisions. Unfortunately, the committee failed to do that with Arizona State's resume. I could go on forever about ASU, but I have to move on to Syracuse. I'm not going to spend much time on them, but I am just baffled by their inclusion into the tournament. Their best non-conference win is over Maryland. I guess they won at Miami, whoopi do. Why not give this spot to Middle Tennessee, who had the 13th toughest non conference schedule, according to Kenpom, and had a magical season that would be remembered by those associated with the school for a long time. No one associated with Syracuse will remember this season two years from now. Look, I get that the process is supposed to be objective, but we have to reward mid-majors for trying to build up their resume. Middle Tennessee did everything the comittee asked them to do, and they still got overlooked. It is what it is, and the worst part is that Syracuse and Arizona State have a great chance to move onto the round of 32. Ever since the inclusion of the First Four, the winner of the Wednesday night game went onto win their next game.
2. FBI Investigation - The FBI investigation has been a cloud that has hung very high over this NCAA basketball season. It would only make sense that three teams that have been major focal points in the FBI probe were left on the outside looking in. USC (who I think should have gotten in over Arizona State), Oklahoma State, and Louisville had legitimate cases to get into the tournament. However, the committee decided that there were resumes were just not good enough. When asked about it, the Committee Chair was asked about whether the probe had any effect on their decision making, he vehemently denied it and refused to go further into it. Obviously, he is going to say no, but there is no way the people in the room were at least not thinking about it. The NCAA's legitimacy is already at question. The last thing they want is for the probe to weigh down the tourney. Along with these snubs, the Committee also underseeded Arizona and possibly Auburn. The committee is always going to make some errors in seeding, it is just interesting these schools happened to be on the wrong side of seeding this year.
3. Seeding - Outside of the two aforementioned schools, the seeding this year wasn't too bad. I don't think any number one seed has been unfairly punished by poor seeding like Villanova last year. The 1s and 2s this year are pretty much who we expected them to be. Questions start to get asked with Tennessee, Arizona, and West Virginia, but there isn't anything too egregious.
South Region
#1 Seed's Path to Final Four: Least Difficult - This is definitely not a popular take, but I think the Virginia Cavaliers got a pretty nice draw. They got a pretty mediocre 16 seed in UMBC (Go Retrievers!!!), and then will face either Creighton or Kansas State in the next round, who are both outside of the Kenpom Top 25. After the first weekend, a matchup with either Arizona or Kentucky awaits them in the Sweet 16. This possible matchup has gotten pundits riled up. I understand the sentiment. Arizona is probably a top 5 team in terms of talent and have three guys on their roster, who will definitely be on NBA rosters in the near future (DeAndre Ayton, Allonzo Trier, and Rawlie Alkins). Kentucky is loaded with talented freshman and Coach Cal is one of the better coaches in the country. However, Arizona did not necessarily dominate a very weak Pac-12 that could only muster up three tourney teams (and Arizona State shouldn't even be in). Also, let us not forget that Sean Miller teams historically choke in the Tourney. Also, people think Kentucky is back, because they won the SEC Tournament. I'm not buying it. They beat a mediocre at best Georgia team, an Alabama team playing its 3rd game in 3 days that was well aware it had cleared its way to the tourney, and a good Tennessee team that shot the ball poorly. Regardless of who ends up getting there, it will no doubt be a tough game, but the Cavs have faced similar opponents in the ACC, who they have dispatched. If they can claw through the Sweet 16, they will most likely get Cincinnati or Tennessee. Both of these teams are just "Virginia Lite." Kenpom has Cincy and Tennessee are #2 and #4 in defensive efficiency behind Virginia who is #1. In terms of offensive efficiency, Virginia is ranked much higher than both of them. Essentially, Virginia will be playing a worse version of themselves. They play against this style every day in practice and will know exactly how to beat it. Many people may not agree, but I really like Virginia's path to the Alamo. If they fail again this year, it would be fair to say that Virginia may never get to the Final Four
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Creighton-Kansas State: Most people will point to Kentucky-Davidson or Loyola-Chicago-Miami, however, nothing gets me going like a nice revenge narrative. Creighton guard, Marcus Foster, played his first two collegiate seasons at Kansas State. His freshman year he was a breakout star. Foster averaged 15 points a game and was must watch TV. Any time Kansas State played, Foster was a mainstay on SportsCenter. Unfortuntaly, for KSU and Foster, his sophomore year did not go very well. Foster got caught up with the hype and started being a detriment to the team. His numbers went down and Coach, Bruce Webber, suspended him multiple times. At the end of the season, Webber dismissed Foster from the team for his negligent behavior. After his dismissal from the team, Foster transferred to Creighton where he has found new life. Foster leads the team with 20 points a game this season and just hit the 2,000 point plateau. Also, this game will not have much of an impact on the tournament, I am intrigued to see Foster go against his old school in what could be the last game of his college career.
Star Freshman: DeAndre Ayton, Arizona - This guy is just a monster. He is 7' tall, can shoot the basketball, defend, rebound effectively, and just be a presence in the post. Ever since his name was associated with the FBI probe, he has just been on a mission. In the Pac 12 Championship game against USC on Saturday, he went for 32 points and 18 rebounds. Ayton has shot up mock draft boards and some are saying he could be the number one pick in the draft this June. I think he has a fairly comparable game to Karl-Anthony Towns, and he definitely has that upside. If you believe that one man can carry a team to a championship, Ayton and the Wildcats may be your squad.
Region of Poor Tourney Coaches: Another interesting storyline in the South is that a bunch of coaches are looking to breakthrough and finally reach their first Final Four. Tony Bennett (Virginia), Sean Miller (Arizona), and Mick Cronin (Cincinnati) are three of the most respected coaches. They constantly have good squads that are filled with Final Four potential. However, neither of them have been able to breakthrough the door. With all of them in one region, there is a good chance that one of them may do that. Tennessee coach, Rick Barnes, has been to one Final Four (and lost in the Semis). Despite his one Final Four appearance, which was in 2003, Barnes has a reputation for falling short in the tournament. The only coach in this region with a National Title is Coach Cal. It is also worth noting Jim Larranaga and Shaka Smart are also creeping around in this region. Both made shock Final Four runs with (at the time) 11 seed CAA schools in George Mason and VCU. Will the tormented coaches break their curse, will Coach Cal add to his legacy, or could Larranega or Smart surprise the nation again?
Matchup We all Want to See: Arizona-Kentucky - I talked about this a little bit in my blurb about Virginia, but this potential matchup would be happening around too early. Coach Cal talked about it on Sunday and essentially said his team got a raw deal. He may have a point, but his team should have performed better throughout the season. Every year, the committee pits two Blue Bloods against each other in the Round of 32 and put it on a Saturday night to draw some good ratings. Two years ago, the Committee put these same Wildcats against the Indiana Hoosiers. Led by Yogi Ferrell, the Hoosiers beat the Wildcats. Maybe, this is where Coach Cal's anger stems from. Regardless, this game will have tons of talent, large fan bases, and top notch coaching. It has all of the makings of a classic March Madness game. I hope it comes to fruition.
Rapid Fire:
Trendy Upset Pick to Avoid: 11 Loyola-Chicago over 6 Miami
Player I want with ball on last possession: Allonzo Trier, Arizona
Player (s) that will become household names by Monday: Cody and Caleb Martin, Nevada
Best Nickname: Loyola-Chicago Ramblers
Guys You need to know: Kyle Guy (Virginia), Gary Clark Jr. (Cincinnati), Admiral Schofield (Tennessee), Barry Brown (Kansas St.), Peyton Aldridge (Davidson), Mo Bamba (Texas), Kevin Knox (Kentucky)
#6 or Higher seed that could make it to second weekend: 7 Nevada
East Region
#1 Seed's Path to Final Four: Less Difficult - I was struggling between Villanova and Kansas for this spot, but I think the Wildcats have a slightly easier path. After the Round of 64, they will have semi-tough matchup against either Virginia Tech or Alabama. People are very excited about the Crimson Tide because of Collin Sexton (we will talk about him more in a little bit). However, they are the fourth lowest efficient at-large team in the field according to Kenpom and 'Nova blows them away in offensive efficiency (over 100 spots). Virginia Tech is incredibly balanced and took down Virginia in Charlottesville earlier this year. However, I do not think that the VT will be able to get enough baskets to keep up with the Wildcats. In the Sweet Sixteen, the Wildcats would have potential matchups with Wichita State or West Virginia. I think Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges would run the Shockers out of the building. The more challenging opponent for 'Nova would be the #5 seed, West Virginia. The Mountaineers are a veteran squad that play a very high pressure press defense that can wreak havoc for teams that have an inexperienced guards that struggle to protect the ball. Villanova is not one of those teams. Lastly, if they pass this test, the Wildcats would most likely play Purdue, Texas Tech, or even possibly Florida. Matchups with Purdue and Florida would be absolute shootouts and would be one of the more fun games of the tournament. However, Purdue coach, Matt Painter, has not gotten past the Sweet Sixteen in his coaching career. He has been at Purdue since 2005. Florida has the potential to make the Final Four, but they have been one of the most puzzling teams in the nation. Which team will show up this March: the one that drained 17 three pointers at a 47% clip against Gonzaga? Or will it be the one that lost to Georgia at home and at Mississippi? Regardless, I think that Texas Tech provides the toughest matchup for the Wildcats. The Red Raiders have a bonafide star in Keenan Evans and a defense that ranks in the the top 3 in terms of defensive efficiency. It is a pretty similar build to the South Carolina team that went to the Final Four last season. All things considered, I think Villanova got a decent draw even though they will definitely have a couple of challenges to overcome.
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Wichita State- Marshall - Many analysts are pegging Wichita State as a dark horse candidate to win the entire tournament. They are a senior-laden team with a great point guard in Landry Shamet, strong bigs in Shaq Morris and Zac Brown, and a coach that has been to a Final Four in Gregg Marshall. Despite all of the intangibles in the world, I cannot get behind this Shockers team. Look, they are more than capable of scoring buckets, but I am not as confident that they can stop others from scoring buckets. The Shockers are only 107th in defensive efficiency and allowed UConn to score 74 points in their building. Gregg Marshall teams are known for being ferocious on the defensive side of the ball, and this version is just not getting it done this season. In their first round matchup they will be playing the Marshall Thundering Herd and a very familiar name at coach, Dan D'Antoni. If you are curious, yes, that is Mike D'Antoni's brother, and his style is exactly the same as Mike. Marshall plays at the sixth fastest tempo in the country, has top 100 offense in terms of efficiency and has the 12th highest scoring offense in the country. Their stud is senior, Jon Elmore, who is averaging twenty-two points, six assists, and six boards a game. His stat line somewhat reminds of you of Nikola Jokic. This is game to be an up and down affair that involve a lot of short possessions and a lot of points. I think this is a dangerous spot for the Shockers. If Elmore can get hot, I think the Herd can pull of the big upset. Either way, it should definitely be a very fun game.
Star Freshman: Collin Sexton, Alabama - In this stacked class of freshmen, the best athlete of the bunch is definitely Sexton. Sexton has essentially been the Russell Westbrook of this Alabama team. He is averaging twenty points, four rebounds, four assists, and two turnovers a game for the Crimson Tide. He has a very solid year, but his most impressive performance of the season was in November when a on-court skirmish between Alabama and Minnesota led to the Crimson Tide only having five guys left to play for the rest of the game. After two minutes, an Alabama player fouled out, leaving the Tide with only four guys to play in the game. A minute after that, another Tide got injured and was unable to return to the game. This left the Tide with only three players for the last ten minutes of the game. Alabama was down by 11 at this point. They would go on to only lose by only 5 points to Minnesota. Sexton dropped forty points that night and proved what an incredible athlete he is. He has been inconsistent at times this year, but when he is on. He carried the Tide to a tourney berth in the SEC tournament last week, and there is no denying that he could be the key to pulling off a major upset against 'Nova in the Round of 32.
Region of Varying Coaching Pedigree: In this region, we only have one coach that was won a National Championship. That would be Jay Wright. Despite winning a title and also reaching a separate Final Four, Wright has a reputation underachieving in the tournament. I think the title should put those calls to rest, as he is a very good coach. A couple of other coaches have reached Finals fours in the aforementioned Gregg Marshall and West Virginia coach Bob Huggins. One potential coaching matchup that I find intriguing would be a possible Sweet 16 matchup between Purdue's Matt Painter and Texas Tech's Chris Beard. Two years ago when Beard was at Arkansas-Little Rock, the Trojans upset Purdue as a 12 seed. It would be interesting to see if Beard could pull off the same magic with the Red Raiders. As I mentioned before, I am not a fan of Matt Painter as a tourney coach.
Matchup We all Want to See: Villanova-Purdue - It is easy to say that the juiciest matchup is the 1-2 game, but Villanova and Purdue have the first and second most efficient offenses in the country according to Kenpom. We love offense. We also love depth, and both of these teams are very deep. If either squad gets into foul trouble, there will be bodies on the bench that can come in and keep the game interesting. Again, Matt Painter will need to overcome a history of tournament failure for this to happen.
Rapid Fire:
Trendy upset pick to Avoid: 14 Stephen F. Austin over 3 Texas Tech
Player I want with ball on last possession: Keenan Evans, Texas Tech
Player (s) that will become household names by Monday: Mikal Bridges, Villanova
Best Nickname: Wichita State Shockers
Guys You need to know: Jalen Brunson (Villanova), Carsen Edwards (Purdue), Landry Shamet (Wichita State), Sagaba Konate (West Virginia), Chris Chiozza (Florida), Kelan Martin (Butler), Jaylen Adams (St. Bonaventure), Kyle Allman Jr. (Cal-State Fullerton)
6 or Higher seed that could make it to second weekend: 6 Florida
Midwest Region
#1 Seed's Path to Final Four: More Difficult - Although they are ranked as the third best number one see, I am not a big fan of the Kansas Jayhawks. They have pretty good guard play, and they won another Big 12 Title. However, they are not very deep in their front court, and they lost three times at home and once in Kansas City. Kansas never loses this many times in their home state (yeah, Kansas City is in Missouri too, whatever). Kansas will get their tournament started off against one of the better #16 seeds in recent memory, as they will play the Penn Quakers. The Ivy League automatic bid usually gets into the tourney at around the 12 to 14 seed line. This year, it fell all the way to #16. It was a down year for the Ivy, but this is still a very capable Penn team. Chances are that the Quakers will not pull off the upset, but they can make the Jayhawks fight more than they would like. I think Kansas could be in big trouble in the round of 32, as they could face off against NC State or Seton Hall. I'm not too sold on the Wolfpack, but I think the Pirates of Seton Hall could present an incredible challenge to the Jayhawks. The Pirates have incredibly athletic guards that can shoot from the three point line and get to the whole. Most importantly, though, they have one of the most underrated big men in the country, Angel Delgado. Delgado is a double double machine and can really exploit the lack of depth in the Kansas front court that I mentioned. Kansas's starting center, Udoka Azubuike, missed the Big 12 Tournament with a left leg injury and is expected back for the tournament. However, if he aggravates the injury during the tournament, it could lead to a field day for Delgado. If the Jayhawks can get out of the first weekend, they will actually have a pretty reasonable opponent. I think it could be anyone from Auburn, Clemson, New Mexico State, and Charleston. That quarter of the region is pretty wide open, and I think each opponent sets up for the Jayhawks. Their real problem would form in the Elite Eight where they would most likely face either Duke or Michigan State. Personally, I think that both the Blue Devils and the Spartans are better than the Jayhawks. Kenpom rankings agree with me as they have Duke (#3) and Michigan State (#6) ranked higher than Kansas (#9). At the end of the day, Duke and Michigan State have better rosters and better coaches than Kansas. Bill Self does have that national title, but I think he has fallen short of the Final Four many times with better rosters than the one he currently has. I think it may happen once again this season.
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Rhode Island-Oklahoma - Everyone is excited to see Trae Young play in the NCAA Tournament. I get it, and I am going to talk about it in a little bit. I am actually intrigued by the Rhode Island Rams in this matchup. I really believe the Rams had an outside shot of making the Final Four this year. They brought back a bunch of talent and have one of the most sought after coaches in the country, Dan Hurley. However, they had rough end to their season, and then they were given a pretty difficult draw. If they get past the Sooners, they will take on Duke, and then if they can get by that tough test, the Spartans will most likely be waiting. This matchup will really be a great veteran leadership vs. Freshman stud matchup. I'm excited to see which side prevails.
Star Freshman: Trae Young, Oklahoma - This was definitely the most difficult region to pick between. Trae Young and Marvin Bagley have probably been the two most transcendent freshmen in the country this season. I decided to go with Young, because we know that Bagley is going to be a monster in this tournament, but we really aren't sure to make of Young. Young, as you know, captivated the college basketball world by having one of the most dominant stretches in the sport's history over the non-conference slate. However, as he got into conference plays, teams started to focus in solely on Young and really slowed his game down. He got incredibly frustrated, and it really rubbed off on the team. The Sooners have not won a single road game this entire calendar year. That is quite remarkable for an at-large tournament team. I really think that Young may struggle against Rhode Island in their Round of 64 game. The Rams have a top 40 defense, and like I mentioned earlier, they are senior-laden team with a great coach. I think they are going to goad the freshman into making some bad mistakes early, which will manage to throw him off the game. I hope I am wrong. A Duke-Trae Young battle would be epic. I just think it will be an uphill battle for Trae.
Region of Coaching Immortality: Izzo and Coach K. I don't really have to say much else about their pedigree. We have two other National Title winners in Bill Self and Jim Boehiem (if he can get out of Dayton). We also have some other coaches with tourney success: Bruce Pearl, Lonnie Kruger, and Jamie Dixon. This is definitely the most accomplished region of coaches in the tournament.
Matchup We all Want to See: Duke-Michigan State - I mean this one is obvious. Blue blood vs blue blood, Izzo vs Coach K, Bagley vs Bridges, Carter vs Ward. The list goes on and on. These two teams played earlier in the season during the Champions Classic. Duke came out an 88-81 winner, and this is typically the case when these two teams meet. Izzo and Coach K have met 12 times, Coach K has won 11 times. It is worth noting that many of these games have happened at neutral sites as well. I have to side with history and would think Duke would get the upper hand again, but it would be great to watch these two incredible programs go at it again.
Rapid Fire:
Trendy upset pick to Avoid: 10 Oklahoma over 7 Rhode Island
Player I want with ball on last possession: Miles Bridges, Michigan State
Player (s) that will become household names by Monday: Marvin Bagley, Duke
Best Nickname: Penn Quakers
Guys You need to know: Devonte' Graham (Kansas), Wendell Carter Jr. (Duke), Angel Delgado (Seton Hall), Tra Holder (Arizona State), Tyus Battle (Syracuse), Jaren Jackson Jr. (Michigan State), E.C. Matthews (Rhode Island), Zach Lofton (New Mexico State), Joe Chealey (College of Charleston)
6 or Higher seed that could make it to second weekend: 12 New Mexico State Aggies
West Region
#1 Seed's Path to Final Four: Most Difficult - I really do like this Xavier team. They have a star senior guard, Trevon Bluiett, a white dude that everyone will hate, J.P. Macura, and an an excellent coach, Chris Mack. Most of the country is disrespecting the Musketeers based on their name and identity, but this team went to the Elite Eight last year as a 10 seed. They upset Arizona in the process. Although I think this team is talented and has the ability to go to the Final Four, the Selection Committee did not do them any favors. North Carolina, Michigan, and Gonzaga are all rated higher in the Kenpom than Xavier, and the #5 seed, Ohio State, is only spot below the Musketeers. It is not the worst thing in the world. They would have only have to play, at most, two of them if they reached the Elite Eight. However, the idea that there are three teams in their region that are more efficient is a bit troubling. Also, there is a potential matchup with Michael Porter Jr. in the second round. I will discuss Mr. Porter in a little bit, but the road to San Antonio for Xavier will be much tougher than their fellow #1 seeds.
Most Intriguing First Round Matchup: Michigan-Montana - At first, this matchup was not the first one on my radar. However, I do have some connections to the two schools, so I thought I would give it a look. The Michigan Wolverines are on a tear and for the second year in a row won four games in four days to win the Big Ten Championship. The Wolverines are so good, because they are able to space out the floor so well. Almost every player on the team can shoot from deep, and they have three to four guys that can get to the rim with ease. Along with their talented roster, they have a very underrated coach, John Beilein, who excels in tourney situations. In 2013, he took a #4 seed squad led by Trey Burke to the National Championship game, and I guess they are now technically champions since Louisville had to vacate that title. Basically, this Michigan squad has a lot going for it heading in to the tourney. Now, I won't lie, I don't know much about the Montana Grizz, but I did some research. I was fairly impressed to see how balanced they are as they are efficient both on the offensive and defensive sides of the ball, and they rank at #71 in the Kenpom. They primarily depend on two guys, Ahmaad Rorie and Michael Oguine. They are the only players on the team to average over 30 minutes a game. They have another player, Jamar Akoh, who averages double digit scoring per game, but he only averages 26 minutes a game. I figured that he must be very foul-prone, and I was correct. He is 52nd in the nation at Fouls per 40 minutes, as he averages 3.36 fouls per game, according to TeamRankings. The guy is constantly a presence for the Grizz, but he has to find a way to stay on the floor against Michigan. I think this Montana team is very talented, and I think with right matchup, they could have pulled off a huge upset. However, I do not think they match up well with Michigan. First, in order to keep up with the Wolverines, the Grizz will need to take and make three pointers at a decent clip. Unfortunately, this is not what the Grizz do. The Grizz are outside of the Top 300 in the country in terms of both taking and making threes. Their three point shooting percentage ranks at #215, but it is not something they like to do. If they want to win this game, they are going to have to hope Michigan has a terrible day from behind the arc. Although it is unlikely, it is March, and anything can happen.
Star Freshman: Michael Porter Jr., Missouri - Like I have stated throughout this blog, this was a stacked Freshmen class. The number one freshman in this class was Michael Porter Jr. Porter was originally supposed to go to Washington, but then Lorenzo Romar was relieved from his duties as head coach for the Huskies. As a result, Porter reopened his recruitment. Over at Missouri, they hired former Cal coach, Cuonzo Matin, and then managed to hire Porter's dad as an assistant coach. This pretty much locked up Porter's commitment to the Tigers, and Mizzou was primed for a breakout year. Unfortunately, Porter got hurt two minutes into their first game of the season and he was ruled out for the rest of the season. Despite the prognosis, Porter worked hard to try and get back for the postseason, and he was cleared just in time for the SEC tournament. He played his second game of the season last week, and he showed some promise. However, he was ultimately rusty and put up a poor 5-17 from the field. I respect Porter for making the effort to come back, and it shows that he truly wants to help his team. However, I think it may just mess with their chemistry. The guy hasn't played all year, and he is just going to throw up seventeen shots in twenty-three minutes. I don't know how that will go with the rest of the guys on the team. It will be fun if Michael Porter Jr. can turn into the guy we all imagined he would be this season. Instead, I think we will have to wait until his NBA career begins next season.
Region of Solid Coaching: In this region, I didn't notice a particular theme with the coaches other than it is just a solid group. We have a National Champion, Roy Williams. We have two coaches that have reached the Final Four, John Beilein and and Mark Few. We have got the coach that is looking for redemption after getting caught texting recruits too much, Kelvin Sampson. There is the up and coming coach that is looking to revitalize one of the bigger programs in the country, Chris Holtmann. Then, there are the solid guys, who usually find in March: Chris Mack, Leonard Hamilton, Ed Cooley, Billy Kennedy, and Cuonzo Martin. This region is just stacked with good coaches, and I am sure we will notice their coaching prowess throughout the tournament.
Matchup We all Want to See: Xavier-Gonzaga - I'm sure there are a good amount of people that would peg UNC-Michigan for this spot. However, I have great respsect for the little schools that turned into national powers. Both of these schools are Private, Christian universities with enrollments below 8,000. Yet, they have both found a way to mainstays in March. Not only do they get to the Dance, but they make statements. Both teams have incredible guard play and are very well-coached. I really see the difference in this game coming from the front court. The Zags are stacked with Jonathan Williams and Killian Tillie. It is going to be a very tall task for Xavier to stop these guys inside. It is going to take an incredible effort from Bluiett and Macura to overcome it. Regardless of the result, we should commend these teams for constantly making Sweet 16's and consistently putting the country on notice.
Rapid Fire:
Trendy upset pick to Avoid: 11 San Diego State over 6 Houston
Player I want with ball on last possession: Joel Berry, North Carolina
Player (s) that will become household names by Monday: J.P. Macura, Xavier
Best Nickname: South Dakota State Jackrabbits
Guys You need to know: Keita Bates-Diop (Ohio State), Mike Daum (South Dakota State), Rob Gray Jr. (Houston), Trey Kell (San Diego State), Muhammed-Ali Abdur-Rahkman (Michigan), Robert Williams (Texas A&M), Kyron Cartwright (Providence), Luke Maye (North Carolina)
6 or Higher seed that could make it to second weekend: 6 Houston Cougars
I will finish by saying the three keys to a succesful March. Guard play is key. The Most Outstanding Player last year was UNC point guard, Joel Berry. Guards will take you a long way in March. Second, it is best to not be swayed by analysts. Sure, Jay Bilas picked the National Champion last season, but he was one of the few experts that got it right. At the end of the day, this is your bracket, you make the choices. Lastly, upsets are fun, but they aren't everything. The tournament is won in April with your champion, not in March with your upsets. Just be prudent and you will still get your share of upset picks in. Well, there it is. I hope this was helpful, and I wish all of you a Happy March Madness.
Wednesday, March 14, 2018
Friday, April 14, 2017
Daily Three 4/14
Hello,
We went 2-1 yesterday. It would make sense that the Caps in the playoffs would be the team to let us down. They won the game last night, so all is well. We are going down a similar road tonight as yesterday, so let's get started.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin I am guessing
We went with the Brew Crew yesterday, and it worked out well. We are going to do it again, although for a different reason today. The Reds opened up as -140 favorites on the money line. They have received 66% of money line bets, yet they have gone all the way down to -115. The sharps are all over the Brewers who have been killing the ball thus far this season. I would not expect to change against Scott Feldman in baseball's friendliest park for hitters. While you are enjoying some brews to kick off your weekend, root on the Brew Crew as they go for their fourth straight win.
NHL
New York Rangers +130 (10 units wagered, 13 units won) at Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7 EST TV: NBCSN
We have the same thing here as the Brewers game. 66% of money line bets are on the Canadiens, yet they have moved from -160 to -150. Sharps are on the Rangers and for good reason. The Rangers finished one point behind the Canadiens this season, and they played in the much harder Metropolitan Division. The Rangers are the better team, and I will not be surprised if they take a 2-0 lead with them back to New York.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
We are 1-1 with our little Regulation Time experiment, and we will go back to it tonight. Something that has really caught my eye on Wednesday night was how fast this Penguins team is. Their speed is what took them to the title last year, but it appeared that this season, they may have slowed down a little bit. That was not the case on Wednesday, as they looked like the same team that took down the rest of the NHL last spring. I think the Blue Jackets will be able to slow them down a little bit with their brand of physicality in Columbus but playing in Pittsburgh is totally different. Expect the crowd to get the Pens going and take this thing to Columbus with a 2-0 lead.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 116-108-7 (+84 units)
We went 2-1 yesterday. It would make sense that the Caps in the playoffs would be the team to let us down. They won the game last night, so all is well. We are going down a similar road tonight as yesterday, so let's get started.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin I am guessing
We went with the Brew Crew yesterday, and it worked out well. We are going to do it again, although for a different reason today. The Reds opened up as -140 favorites on the money line. They have received 66% of money line bets, yet they have gone all the way down to -115. The sharps are all over the Brewers who have been killing the ball thus far this season. I would not expect to change against Scott Feldman in baseball's friendliest park for hitters. While you are enjoying some brews to kick off your weekend, root on the Brew Crew as they go for their fourth straight win.
NHL
New York Rangers +130 (10 units wagered, 13 units won) at Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7 EST TV: NBCSN
We have the same thing here as the Brewers game. 66% of money line bets are on the Canadiens, yet they have moved from -160 to -150. Sharps are on the Rangers and for good reason. The Rangers finished one point behind the Canadiens this season, and they played in the much harder Metropolitan Division. The Rangers are the better team, and I will not be surprised if they take a 2-0 lead with them back to New York.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
We are 1-1 with our little Regulation Time experiment, and we will go back to it tonight. Something that has really caught my eye on Wednesday night was how fast this Penguins team is. Their speed is what took them to the title last year, but it appeared that this season, they may have slowed down a little bit. That was not the case on Wednesday, as they looked like the same team that took down the rest of the NHL last spring. I think the Blue Jackets will be able to slow them down a little bit with their brand of physicality in Columbus but playing in Pittsburgh is totally different. Expect the crowd to get the Pens going and take this thing to Columbus with a 2-0 lead.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 116-108-7 (+84 units)
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Daily Three 4/13
Hello,
Yesterday was not the best day to come out of hiatus, but I am hopeful. The Wild should have won that game, but Jake Allen, who was a sieve in January, has all of a sudden become a brick wall. The Senators held the Bruins to zero shots in the second period but had their own issues scoring. It isn't all bad, the Sharks made a nice comeback and salvaged our night. Anyway, I know tonight will be better, so, let's do it.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: I'm guessing Fox Sports Wisconsin
Bronson Arroyo made his first Major League appearance since 2014 last Saturday. He gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Tonight, he is going up against a hot Brewers team that just swept the Blue Jays in Toronto. He will also be pitching in Great American Ballpark, the most hitter friendly park in baseball. I think the Brewers are a good call.
NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: USA
Where did you think I was going to here? The storyline is old, the Caps are trying to exorcise some demons and win their first Stanley Cup, let alone get past the Second Round for the first time since 1998. I really do think this is the year for Ovi and the boys. Their first opponent is very similar to the first Ovi-led "Young Guns" in 2008. Led by Auston Matthews, the Leafs have made incredible strides and are way ahead of schedule in their rebuilding project. Although this team will be making noise in the Eastern Conference for years to come, I think they will be taking a back seat to the Caps this year. This Caps team will be just too much for the youngsters from Ontario. So, let's give the Leafs a goal and a half, it shouldn't make a difference tonight.
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 10:30 TV: NBCSN
I know the regulation wager did not work out last night, but the Wild seriously outplayed the Blues. Jake Allen was just unbeatable last night. We move on and will go with the Ducks tonight. The Ducks owned the Flames during the regular season series, winning 4 of 5 their meetings, including two wins over the past two weeks. This series will be fun as the recent meetings got very heated and involved many fisticuffs. Anyway, I know the regular season is a different beast, but the Ducks match up very well with this team, and I think it will show tonight in Anaheim. Let's go with the Ducks to win this one without needing extra time.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 114-107-7 (+74 Units)
Yesterday was not the best day to come out of hiatus, but I am hopeful. The Wild should have won that game, but Jake Allen, who was a sieve in January, has all of a sudden become a brick wall. The Senators held the Bruins to zero shots in the second period but had their own issues scoring. It isn't all bad, the Sharks made a nice comeback and salvaged our night. Anyway, I know tonight will be better, so, let's do it.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: I'm guessing Fox Sports Wisconsin
Bronson Arroyo made his first Major League appearance since 2014 last Saturday. He gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Tonight, he is going up against a hot Brewers team that just swept the Blue Jays in Toronto. He will also be pitching in Great American Ballpark, the most hitter friendly park in baseball. I think the Brewers are a good call.
NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: USA
Where did you think I was going to here? The storyline is old, the Caps are trying to exorcise some demons and win their first Stanley Cup, let alone get past the Second Round for the first time since 1998. I really do think this is the year for Ovi and the boys. Their first opponent is very similar to the first Ovi-led "Young Guns" in 2008. Led by Auston Matthews, the Leafs have made incredible strides and are way ahead of schedule in their rebuilding project. Although this team will be making noise in the Eastern Conference for years to come, I think they will be taking a back seat to the Caps this year. This Caps team will be just too much for the youngsters from Ontario. So, let's give the Leafs a goal and a half, it shouldn't make a difference tonight.
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 10:30 TV: NBCSN
I know the regulation wager did not work out last night, but the Wild seriously outplayed the Blues. Jake Allen was just unbeatable last night. We move on and will go with the Ducks tonight. The Ducks owned the Flames during the regular season series, winning 4 of 5 their meetings, including two wins over the past two weeks. This series will be fun as the recent meetings got very heated and involved many fisticuffs. Anyway, I know the regular season is a different beast, but the Ducks match up very well with this team, and I think it will show tonight in Anaheim. Let's go with the Ducks to win this one without needing extra time.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 114-107-7 (+74 Units)
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Daily Three 4/12
Hello,
Alright, the hiatus is over. My favorite time of the year is here as the NHL playoffs start tonight. Tonight will kick off an action-packed couple of months with baseball getting going, the UEFA Champions league revving up, and the NBA playoffs starting on Saturday. The focus, today, will be on the NHL, so let's get to it.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: NHL Network
We start tonight in the Canada's capitol, as the Bruins and Senators return to the postseason after their absence from last year's edition. Many people are jumping on the Bruins in this series as they have "veteran leadership" and a really strong scoring line in Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand. However, I am not sold on the Bruins, especially in Ottawa. First, the Bruins are incredibly banged up on their blue line. Power play stud, Torrey Krug, will not play tonight, and Zdeno Chara's right-hand man, Brando Carlo, will also be sitting out with an upper body injury. Things have gotten so dire for the Bruins, they were forced to sign top prospect, Charlie McAvoy, to an entry-league contract, so he could suit up tonight. By signing this contract, the Bruins essentially given up a year of team control over McAvoy. It seems like a risky endeavor for a team that doesn't have a great chance to go the distance. Also, at least in Ottawa, the aforementioned "Killer B's" line will be matched with Erik Karlsson every time they are on the ice. Karlsson is a two-time Norris trophy winner (best defenseman) and is still one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL. If Karlsson can shut down this line consistently over the first two games in Ottawa, there is a good chance, Marchand loses his head and takes unneccesarry penalties that will severely hurt his team. Until the Bruins get their blue line situated, I think the Sens are in good position to head into Boston with a 2-0 lead. Trust the best defenseman in hockey to shut down the Bruins and help the Sens take a 1-0 lead in the series.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild +105, regulation time (9.5 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:30 EST TV: NBCSN
First, let me clarify the odds. The Wild must win the game in regulation. If they get the win in overtime, it would count as a loss. I am taking this chance, because the Wild are currently -170 on the money line. Vegas thinks they have a very good shot at winning this game. So, let's just a wager about 7.5 units less and take something that Vegas expects to happen. Anyway, the interesting storyline coming into this series is St. Louis Blues coach, Mike Yeo, returning to Minnesota to coach against the team that fired him after last season. Yeo was able to turn things around in Minnesota, as he made the playoffs consistently over his tenure. However, he was never able to get over the proverbial hump, as the Wild were never able to get past the second round, usually falling to the Blackhawks. Also, the team strayed towards protecting their net and could never get it going offensively. Thus, the Wild brought Bruce Boudreau to use his run n' gun system, and it really got all four lines scoring for the Wild. The Blues have picked things up over the past month, but the Wild are still a significantly better team. The Blues' own GM even knows this as he traded his best defenseman at the trade deadline for a decent haul, instead of making a run for the Cup. Give props to the Blues for continuing to fight, but their stay in the playoffs should be short. Go with the Wild to win tonight in 60 minutes.
San Jose Sharks +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won) at Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10 EST TV: USA
Welcome to the big time Connor McDavid. All eyes will be on Mr. McDavid tonight as he plays in his first playoff game along with many other Oilers, who as a franchise have not made the playoffs in 11 years (previously the longest drought in the NHL). Although I imagine Connor will win many playoff games with this franchise, he will not win his first one tonight. I am going to jump on the Sharks, as I see some value with their high money line total. After years of being labeled chokers, San Jose finally broke through last year and made the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Although they ended up losing in 6, it set the tone for this franchise that they can take it to the next level. They are dealing with a couple of injuries to key cogs Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, who are both game time decisions tonight. However, I cannot imagine that they would not suit up tonight. Once, it is announced that they will play, I am guessing this line falls 20 or so points. So, I am going to jump on it now and hope that experience will trump youth in the first game of this series.
Last Monday: 0-3
Overall: 113-105-7 (+78.5 units)
Alright, the hiatus is over. My favorite time of the year is here as the NHL playoffs start tonight. Tonight will kick off an action-packed couple of months with baseball getting going, the UEFA Champions league revving up, and the NBA playoffs starting on Saturday. The focus, today, will be on the NHL, so let's get to it.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: NHL Network
We start tonight in the Canada's capitol, as the Bruins and Senators return to the postseason after their absence from last year's edition. Many people are jumping on the Bruins in this series as they have "veteran leadership" and a really strong scoring line in Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand. However, I am not sold on the Bruins, especially in Ottawa. First, the Bruins are incredibly banged up on their blue line. Power play stud, Torrey Krug, will not play tonight, and Zdeno Chara's right-hand man, Brando Carlo, will also be sitting out with an upper body injury. Things have gotten so dire for the Bruins, they were forced to sign top prospect, Charlie McAvoy, to an entry-league contract, so he could suit up tonight. By signing this contract, the Bruins essentially given up a year of team control over McAvoy. It seems like a risky endeavor for a team that doesn't have a great chance to go the distance. Also, at least in Ottawa, the aforementioned "Killer B's" line will be matched with Erik Karlsson every time they are on the ice. Karlsson is a two-time Norris trophy winner (best defenseman) and is still one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL. If Karlsson can shut down this line consistently over the first two games in Ottawa, there is a good chance, Marchand loses his head and takes unneccesarry penalties that will severely hurt his team. Until the Bruins get their blue line situated, I think the Sens are in good position to head into Boston with a 2-0 lead. Trust the best defenseman in hockey to shut down the Bruins and help the Sens take a 1-0 lead in the series.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild +105, regulation time (9.5 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:30 EST TV: NBCSN
First, let me clarify the odds. The Wild must win the game in regulation. If they get the win in overtime, it would count as a loss. I am taking this chance, because the Wild are currently -170 on the money line. Vegas thinks they have a very good shot at winning this game. So, let's just a wager about 7.5 units less and take something that Vegas expects to happen. Anyway, the interesting storyline coming into this series is St. Louis Blues coach, Mike Yeo, returning to Minnesota to coach against the team that fired him after last season. Yeo was able to turn things around in Minnesota, as he made the playoffs consistently over his tenure. However, he was never able to get over the proverbial hump, as the Wild were never able to get past the second round, usually falling to the Blackhawks. Also, the team strayed towards protecting their net and could never get it going offensively. Thus, the Wild brought Bruce Boudreau to use his run n' gun system, and it really got all four lines scoring for the Wild. The Blues have picked things up over the past month, but the Wild are still a significantly better team. The Blues' own GM even knows this as he traded his best defenseman at the trade deadline for a decent haul, instead of making a run for the Cup. Give props to the Blues for continuing to fight, but their stay in the playoffs should be short. Go with the Wild to win tonight in 60 minutes.
San Jose Sharks +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won) at Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10 EST TV: USA
Welcome to the big time Connor McDavid. All eyes will be on Mr. McDavid tonight as he plays in his first playoff game along with many other Oilers, who as a franchise have not made the playoffs in 11 years (previously the longest drought in the NHL). Although I imagine Connor will win many playoff games with this franchise, he will not win his first one tonight. I am going to jump on the Sharks, as I see some value with their high money line total. After years of being labeled chokers, San Jose finally broke through last year and made the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Although they ended up losing in 6, it set the tone for this franchise that they can take it to the next level. They are dealing with a couple of injuries to key cogs Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, who are both game time decisions tonight. However, I cannot imagine that they would not suit up tonight. Once, it is announced that they will play, I am guessing this line falls 20 or so points. So, I am going to jump on it now and hope that experience will trump youth in the first game of this series.
Last Monday: 0-3
Overall: 113-105-7 (+78.5 units)
Monday, April 3, 2017
Daily Three 4/3 (National Championship Edition)
Hello,
Again, sorry for my absence over the past week. There was much reflection after another LOTM miss. However, we always must come back stronger. So, I am back tonight, ready to give you a winner. Just picks tonight, but just know I have been backing the Zags the whole tourney. They have the best defense and incredible guard play. UNC is awesome, but I think Joel Berry is fairly hurt, and the Zags can effectively battle UNC's size. It's going to be a classic like last year's thriller, but I think the Zags will finally break through, and Spokane is going to be partying tonight.
MLB
Kansas City Royals -105 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Minnesota Twins
Time: 4:05 EST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Oakland A's
Time: 10:10 EST
NCAAB
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 9:20 EST TV: CBS
Last Blog: 1-2
Overall: 113-102-7 (+111.5 Units)
March: 31-29 (+11.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 11-7: (+35 Units)
Again, sorry for my absence over the past week. There was much reflection after another LOTM miss. However, we always must come back stronger. So, I am back tonight, ready to give you a winner. Just picks tonight, but just know I have been backing the Zags the whole tourney. They have the best defense and incredible guard play. UNC is awesome, but I think Joel Berry is fairly hurt, and the Zags can effectively battle UNC's size. It's going to be a classic like last year's thriller, but I think the Zags will finally break through, and Spokane is going to be partying tonight.
MLB
Kansas City Royals -105 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Minnesota Twins
Time: 4:05 EST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Oakland A's
Time: 10:10 EST
NCAAB
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 9:20 EST TV: CBS
Last Blog: 1-2
Overall: 113-102-7 (+111.5 Units)
March: 31-29 (+11.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 11-7: (+35 Units)
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Daily Three 3/26
Hello,
Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.
Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES
Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.
LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS
Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.
Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS
I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.
Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)
Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.
Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES
Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.
LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS
Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.
Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS
I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.
Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)
Friday, March 24, 2017
Daily Three 3/24
Hello,
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
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