Hello,
We went 2-1 yesterday. It would make sense that the Caps in the playoffs would be the team to let us down. They won the game last night, so all is well. We are going down a similar road tonight as yesterday, so let's get started.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: Fox Sports Wisconsin I am guessing
We went with the Brew Crew yesterday, and it worked out well. We are going to do it again, although for a different reason today. The Reds opened up as -140 favorites on the money line. They have received 66% of money line bets, yet they have gone all the way down to -115. The sharps are all over the Brewers who have been killing the ball thus far this season. I would not expect to change against Scott Feldman in baseball's friendliest park for hitters. While you are enjoying some brews to kick off your weekend, root on the Brew Crew as they go for their fourth straight win.
NHL
New York Rangers +130 (10 units wagered, 13 units won) at Montreal Canadiens
Time: 7 EST TV: NBCSN
We have the same thing here as the Brewers game. 66% of money line bets are on the Canadiens, yet they have moved from -160 to -150. Sharps are on the Rangers and for good reason. The Rangers finished one point behind the Canadiens this season, and they played in the much harder Metropolitan Division. The Rangers are the better team, and I will not be surprised if they take a 2-0 lead with them back to New York.
Columbus Blue Jackets at Pittsburgh Penguins Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
We are 1-1 with our little Regulation Time experiment, and we will go back to it tonight. Something that has really caught my eye on Wednesday night was how fast this Penguins team is. Their speed is what took them to the title last year, but it appeared that this season, they may have slowed down a little bit. That was not the case on Wednesday, as they looked like the same team that took down the rest of the NHL last spring. I think the Blue Jackets will be able to slow them down a little bit with their brand of physicality in Columbus but playing in Pittsburgh is totally different. Expect the crowd to get the Pens going and take this thing to Columbus with a 2-0 lead.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 116-108-7 (+84 units)
Friday, April 14, 2017
Thursday, April 13, 2017
Daily Three 4/13
Hello,
Yesterday was not the best day to come out of hiatus, but I am hopeful. The Wild should have won that game, but Jake Allen, who was a sieve in January, has all of a sudden become a brick wall. The Senators held the Bruins to zero shots in the second period but had their own issues scoring. It isn't all bad, the Sharks made a nice comeback and salvaged our night. Anyway, I know tonight will be better, so, let's do it.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: I'm guessing Fox Sports Wisconsin
Bronson Arroyo made his first Major League appearance since 2014 last Saturday. He gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Tonight, he is going up against a hot Brewers team that just swept the Blue Jays in Toronto. He will also be pitching in Great American Ballpark, the most hitter friendly park in baseball. I think the Brewers are a good call.
NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: USA
Where did you think I was going to here? The storyline is old, the Caps are trying to exorcise some demons and win their first Stanley Cup, let alone get past the Second Round for the first time since 1998. I really do think this is the year for Ovi and the boys. Their first opponent is very similar to the first Ovi-led "Young Guns" in 2008. Led by Auston Matthews, the Leafs have made incredible strides and are way ahead of schedule in their rebuilding project. Although this team will be making noise in the Eastern Conference for years to come, I think they will be taking a back seat to the Caps this year. This Caps team will be just too much for the youngsters from Ontario. So, let's give the Leafs a goal and a half, it shouldn't make a difference tonight.
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 10:30 TV: NBCSN
I know the regulation wager did not work out last night, but the Wild seriously outplayed the Blues. Jake Allen was just unbeatable last night. We move on and will go with the Ducks tonight. The Ducks owned the Flames during the regular season series, winning 4 of 5 their meetings, including two wins over the past two weeks. This series will be fun as the recent meetings got very heated and involved many fisticuffs. Anyway, I know the regular season is a different beast, but the Ducks match up very well with this team, and I think it will show tonight in Anaheim. Let's go with the Ducks to win this one without needing extra time.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 114-107-7 (+74 Units)
Yesterday was not the best day to come out of hiatus, but I am hopeful. The Wild should have won that game, but Jake Allen, who was a sieve in January, has all of a sudden become a brick wall. The Senators held the Bruins to zero shots in the second period but had their own issues scoring. It isn't all bad, the Sharks made a nice comeback and salvaged our night. Anyway, I know tonight will be better, so, let's do it.
MLB
Milwaukee Brewers -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Cincinnati Reds
Time: 7:10 EST TV: I'm guessing Fox Sports Wisconsin
Bronson Arroyo made his first Major League appearance since 2014 last Saturday. He gave up 6 runs in 4 innings. Tonight, he is going up against a hot Brewers team that just swept the Blue Jays in Toronto. He will also be pitching in Great American Ballpark, the most hitter friendly park in baseball. I think the Brewers are a good call.
NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: USA
Where did you think I was going to here? The storyline is old, the Caps are trying to exorcise some demons and win their first Stanley Cup, let alone get past the Second Round for the first time since 1998. I really do think this is the year for Ovi and the boys. Their first opponent is very similar to the first Ovi-led "Young Guns" in 2008. Led by Auston Matthews, the Leafs have made incredible strides and are way ahead of schedule in their rebuilding project. Although this team will be making noise in the Eastern Conference for years to come, I think they will be taking a back seat to the Caps this year. This Caps team will be just too much for the youngsters from Ontario. So, let's give the Leafs a goal and a half, it shouldn't make a difference tonight.
Calgary Flames at Anaheim Ducks Even, Regulation Time (10 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 10:30 TV: NBCSN
I know the regulation wager did not work out last night, but the Wild seriously outplayed the Blues. Jake Allen was just unbeatable last night. We move on and will go with the Ducks tonight. The Ducks owned the Flames during the regular season series, winning 4 of 5 their meetings, including two wins over the past two weeks. This series will be fun as the recent meetings got very heated and involved many fisticuffs. Anyway, I know the regular season is a different beast, but the Ducks match up very well with this team, and I think it will show tonight in Anaheim. Let's go with the Ducks to win this one without needing extra time.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 114-107-7 (+74 Units)
Wednesday, April 12, 2017
Daily Three 4/12
Hello,
Alright, the hiatus is over. My favorite time of the year is here as the NHL playoffs start tonight. Tonight will kick off an action-packed couple of months with baseball getting going, the UEFA Champions league revving up, and the NBA playoffs starting on Saturday. The focus, today, will be on the NHL, so let's get to it.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: NHL Network
We start tonight in the Canada's capitol, as the Bruins and Senators return to the postseason after their absence from last year's edition. Many people are jumping on the Bruins in this series as they have "veteran leadership" and a really strong scoring line in Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand. However, I am not sold on the Bruins, especially in Ottawa. First, the Bruins are incredibly banged up on their blue line. Power play stud, Torrey Krug, will not play tonight, and Zdeno Chara's right-hand man, Brando Carlo, will also be sitting out with an upper body injury. Things have gotten so dire for the Bruins, they were forced to sign top prospect, Charlie McAvoy, to an entry-league contract, so he could suit up tonight. By signing this contract, the Bruins essentially given up a year of team control over McAvoy. It seems like a risky endeavor for a team that doesn't have a great chance to go the distance. Also, at least in Ottawa, the aforementioned "Killer B's" line will be matched with Erik Karlsson every time they are on the ice. Karlsson is a two-time Norris trophy winner (best defenseman) and is still one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL. If Karlsson can shut down this line consistently over the first two games in Ottawa, there is a good chance, Marchand loses his head and takes unneccesarry penalties that will severely hurt his team. Until the Bruins get their blue line situated, I think the Sens are in good position to head into Boston with a 2-0 lead. Trust the best defenseman in hockey to shut down the Bruins and help the Sens take a 1-0 lead in the series.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild +105, regulation time (9.5 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:30 EST TV: NBCSN
First, let me clarify the odds. The Wild must win the game in regulation. If they get the win in overtime, it would count as a loss. I am taking this chance, because the Wild are currently -170 on the money line. Vegas thinks they have a very good shot at winning this game. So, let's just a wager about 7.5 units less and take something that Vegas expects to happen. Anyway, the interesting storyline coming into this series is St. Louis Blues coach, Mike Yeo, returning to Minnesota to coach against the team that fired him after last season. Yeo was able to turn things around in Minnesota, as he made the playoffs consistently over his tenure. However, he was never able to get over the proverbial hump, as the Wild were never able to get past the second round, usually falling to the Blackhawks. Also, the team strayed towards protecting their net and could never get it going offensively. Thus, the Wild brought Bruce Boudreau to use his run n' gun system, and it really got all four lines scoring for the Wild. The Blues have picked things up over the past month, but the Wild are still a significantly better team. The Blues' own GM even knows this as he traded his best defenseman at the trade deadline for a decent haul, instead of making a run for the Cup. Give props to the Blues for continuing to fight, but their stay in the playoffs should be short. Go with the Wild to win tonight in 60 minutes.
San Jose Sharks +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won) at Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10 EST TV: USA
Welcome to the big time Connor McDavid. All eyes will be on Mr. McDavid tonight as he plays in his first playoff game along with many other Oilers, who as a franchise have not made the playoffs in 11 years (previously the longest drought in the NHL). Although I imagine Connor will win many playoff games with this franchise, he will not win his first one tonight. I am going to jump on the Sharks, as I see some value with their high money line total. After years of being labeled chokers, San Jose finally broke through last year and made the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Although they ended up losing in 6, it set the tone for this franchise that they can take it to the next level. They are dealing with a couple of injuries to key cogs Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, who are both game time decisions tonight. However, I cannot imagine that they would not suit up tonight. Once, it is announced that they will play, I am guessing this line falls 20 or so points. So, I am going to jump on it now and hope that experience will trump youth in the first game of this series.
Last Monday: 0-3
Overall: 113-105-7 (+78.5 units)
Alright, the hiatus is over. My favorite time of the year is here as the NHL playoffs start tonight. Tonight will kick off an action-packed couple of months with baseball getting going, the UEFA Champions league revving up, and the NBA playoffs starting on Saturday. The focus, today, will be on the NHL, so let's get to it.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: NHL Network
We start tonight in the Canada's capitol, as the Bruins and Senators return to the postseason after their absence from last year's edition. Many people are jumping on the Bruins in this series as they have "veteran leadership" and a really strong scoring line in Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand. However, I am not sold on the Bruins, especially in Ottawa. First, the Bruins are incredibly banged up on their blue line. Power play stud, Torrey Krug, will not play tonight, and Zdeno Chara's right-hand man, Brando Carlo, will also be sitting out with an upper body injury. Things have gotten so dire for the Bruins, they were forced to sign top prospect, Charlie McAvoy, to an entry-league contract, so he could suit up tonight. By signing this contract, the Bruins essentially given up a year of team control over McAvoy. It seems like a risky endeavor for a team that doesn't have a great chance to go the distance. Also, at least in Ottawa, the aforementioned "Killer B's" line will be matched with Erik Karlsson every time they are on the ice. Karlsson is a two-time Norris trophy winner (best defenseman) and is still one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL. If Karlsson can shut down this line consistently over the first two games in Ottawa, there is a good chance, Marchand loses his head and takes unneccesarry penalties that will severely hurt his team. Until the Bruins get their blue line situated, I think the Sens are in good position to head into Boston with a 2-0 lead. Trust the best defenseman in hockey to shut down the Bruins and help the Sens take a 1-0 lead in the series.
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild +105, regulation time (9.5 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:30 EST TV: NBCSN
First, let me clarify the odds. The Wild must win the game in regulation. If they get the win in overtime, it would count as a loss. I am taking this chance, because the Wild are currently -170 on the money line. Vegas thinks they have a very good shot at winning this game. So, let's just a wager about 7.5 units less and take something that Vegas expects to happen. Anyway, the interesting storyline coming into this series is St. Louis Blues coach, Mike Yeo, returning to Minnesota to coach against the team that fired him after last season. Yeo was able to turn things around in Minnesota, as he made the playoffs consistently over his tenure. However, he was never able to get over the proverbial hump, as the Wild were never able to get past the second round, usually falling to the Blackhawks. Also, the team strayed towards protecting their net and could never get it going offensively. Thus, the Wild brought Bruce Boudreau to use his run n' gun system, and it really got all four lines scoring for the Wild. The Blues have picked things up over the past month, but the Wild are still a significantly better team. The Blues' own GM even knows this as he traded his best defenseman at the trade deadline for a decent haul, instead of making a run for the Cup. Give props to the Blues for continuing to fight, but their stay in the playoffs should be short. Go with the Wild to win tonight in 60 minutes.
San Jose Sharks +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won) at Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10 EST TV: USA
Welcome to the big time Connor McDavid. All eyes will be on Mr. McDavid tonight as he plays in his first playoff game along with many other Oilers, who as a franchise have not made the playoffs in 11 years (previously the longest drought in the NHL). Although I imagine Connor will win many playoff games with this franchise, he will not win his first one tonight. I am going to jump on the Sharks, as I see some value with their high money line total. After years of being labeled chokers, San Jose finally broke through last year and made the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Although they ended up losing in 6, it set the tone for this franchise that they can take it to the next level. They are dealing with a couple of injuries to key cogs Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, who are both game time decisions tonight. However, I cannot imagine that they would not suit up tonight. Once, it is announced that they will play, I am guessing this line falls 20 or so points. So, I am going to jump on it now and hope that experience will trump youth in the first game of this series.
Last Monday: 0-3
Overall: 113-105-7 (+78.5 units)
Monday, April 3, 2017
Daily Three 4/3 (National Championship Edition)
Hello,
Again, sorry for my absence over the past week. There was much reflection after another LOTM miss. However, we always must come back stronger. So, I am back tonight, ready to give you a winner. Just picks tonight, but just know I have been backing the Zags the whole tourney. They have the best defense and incredible guard play. UNC is awesome, but I think Joel Berry is fairly hurt, and the Zags can effectively battle UNC's size. It's going to be a classic like last year's thriller, but I think the Zags will finally break through, and Spokane is going to be partying tonight.
MLB
Kansas City Royals -105 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Minnesota Twins
Time: 4:05 EST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Oakland A's
Time: 10:10 EST
NCAAB
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 9:20 EST TV: CBS
Last Blog: 1-2
Overall: 113-102-7 (+111.5 Units)
March: 31-29 (+11.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 11-7: (+35 Units)
Again, sorry for my absence over the past week. There was much reflection after another LOTM miss. However, we always must come back stronger. So, I am back tonight, ready to give you a winner. Just picks tonight, but just know I have been backing the Zags the whole tourney. They have the best defense and incredible guard play. UNC is awesome, but I think Joel Berry is fairly hurt, and the Zags can effectively battle UNC's size. It's going to be a classic like last year's thriller, but I think the Zags will finally break through, and Spokane is going to be partying tonight.
MLB
Kansas City Royals -105 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Minnesota Twins
Time: 4:05 EST
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim -110 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Oakland A's
Time: 10:10 EST
NCAAB
Gonzaga Bulldogs +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 9:20 EST TV: CBS
Last Blog: 1-2
Overall: 113-102-7 (+111.5 Units)
March: 31-29 (+11.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 11-7: (+35 Units)
Sunday, March 26, 2017
Daily Three 3/26
Hello,
Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.
Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES
Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.
LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS
Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.
Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS
I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.
Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)
Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.
Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES
Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.
LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS
Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.
Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS
I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.
Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)
Friday, March 24, 2017
Daily Three 3/24
Hello,
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
Yesterday was essentially a wash. If the Zags could have just gotten a board and ended the worst possession in the history of college basketball, they would have covered. Oh well, the tourney record is still looking good, and tonight our favorite team is playing. Let's get to it.
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Baylor Bears -3 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 6:29 EST TV: TBS
Everyone was pretty excited about Duke and Nova playing on Sunday at MSG for the right to go the Final Four. Too bad South Carolina and Wisconsin had to ruin the party (psyche, good job Gamecocks and Badgers). Although South Carolina stunned the college basketball world last weekend, I think their luck runs out next week. Baylor has something that Marquette and Duke do not, a stingy defense. Baylor has the 13th most efficient defense according to Kenpom and should really expose South Carolina's weak offense. Their weak offense was on display in the first half of the Duke game when they only shot 20% from the field. 20%!!!! Then, USC went on an unprecedented run in the second half when they scored a ridiculous 65 points. They were unable to hit 65 points in 10 full games this season. I am sorry, that type of scoring from this team is just not sustainable. Sindarius Thornwell is a monster for the Gamecocks, and the SEC Player of the Year. However, he alone, will not be able to penetrate on this Baylor D. Go with the Bears to move onto the Elite Eight.
UCLA Bruins vs Kentucky Wildcats +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:39 TV: CBS
This game will be a lot of fun and will involve a lot of scoring. The game currently has an over/under of 167, which, according to some accounts, is the largest over/under in the history of the tournament. The two teams played earlier this season in Rupp, and surprisingly, the Bruins came out of Lexington with the victory. Despite the temptation to account this game in my pick, I am going to avoid doing so, as many of the players on the court that day were playing in the first meaningful college basketball game of their careers. Also, both teams have grown significantly since that day in December. As the spread will show you, the two teams are incredibly even. Although there is a little bit of experience on both teams, this game is mostly going to be decided by players that are playing their first NCAA tournament. So, in this situation, I am going to go with the better coach. It is clearly John Calipari. Calipari has been to multiple final fours and has won a championship with Anthony Davis and Michael-Kidd Gilchrist. Steve Alford has won a championship as a player at Indiana, but he has never gotten to the Final Four as a coach. Honestly, I think there could be a legitimate argument made that the Bruins have underachieved this season with Alford at the helm. Yes, their offense is probably the best in the country, but a team this athletic should be able to defend. UCLA cannot defend, although they have gotten better. Kentucky has the seventh most efficient defense in the country according to Kenpom, and although they may not be able to completely stop Lonzo Ball and Co., they should be able to slow them down. I'm going with good coaching and strong defense in this matchup of the Blue Blood programs. Big Blue Nation will be celebrating hard in Memphis tonight.
Wisconsin Badgers +1.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Florida Gators
Time: 9:59 EST TV: TBS
This is obviously a gut call. I really do like this Florida team, and I think they got a rough draw. I honestly may not have even written this game up if John Egbunu was still healthy. However, I think the Badgers have this one, and it all comes down to experience. The Badgers' senior class has been to three Sweet Sixteens and two Final Fours in the last three years, and they will be playing in their fourth Sweet Sixteen game tonight. The Gators haven't been in the tournament the past two seasons. Only two regulars remain from their Final Four team in 2014, and Kasey Hill is the only one that received significant time. In a game this close, the battle tested Badgers should be locked in and ready to pull out a victory at all costs. That is why I will go with the guys wearing red to play a sunday Elite Eight game at the Mecca of basketball.
Yesterday: 2-2
Overall: 110-99-7 (+104.5 Units)
March: 28-26 (+4.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 8-4 (+36 Units)
Thursday, March 23, 2017
Daily Three 3/23
Hello,
Sorry for the hiatus. The tourney definitely kept me off the NBA and NHL track, so I didn't feel comfortable making picks this week. Regardless, the tourney starts back up tonight, and we are ready to roll.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks + 1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:09 EST TV: CBS
Watch this video of Dillion Brooks. Now, watch this one. Yes, the man has ice in his veins. It must be from his Canadian uprbringing. There is not a single person I want taking the last shot other than Mr. Brooks. Michigan is a very nice story and that is probably inflating their value a little bit. I know they are very hot, but there is a reason they are #7 seed. At some point the shots have to stop falling, and I think tonight is the night. Yes, the loss of Chris Boucher was huge, but people seem to forget, they have another incredible rim protector in Jordan Bell. Also, there defense is pretty stout overall, ranked #25 in the Kenpom in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are the more balanced squad, and I think, that along with a clutch Dillion Brooks basket, will get them the "upset."
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:39 EST TV: TBS
I have the Zags winning the whole thing, so I'm going to stick my pick. The Bulldogs have many detractors. Tonight, haters think that West Virginia is their first real test. Well, they also played and beat two other teams playing this weekend, so they are wrong. They are also scared that the Bulldogs will not be able to handle "Press Virginia" and their ability to force turnovers. Well, there aren't many teams that throw out four guards to handle high pressure defenses. Gonzaga is one of those teams. Josh Perkins, Jordan Matthews, Silas Melson, and of course, Nigel Williams-Goss can do it. Also, West Virginia historically crashes out by the Sweet Sixteen. The one exception during the Bob Huggins era was in 2010, when they had a college super star in Da'Sean Butler. I love Jevon Carter, but he is not a college super star. Also, worth noting, although not incredibly relevant, the one time these two schools met in the tourney (2012), Gonzaga rocked West Virginia. No players remain, but Mark Few definitely knows how to beat Bobby's press. I'm rolling with the Zags tonight and will be as long as their play allows me.
Xavier Musketeers +7.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arizona Wildcats
Time: 10:09 EST TV: TBS
Xavier is the lowest seed left in the tourney, and they got to the Sweet Sixteen in pretty convincing fashion. In their win over Florida State, the Musketeers played a a lot of zone to turn the Seminoles' athletes in to shooters. It worked very well as a 25 point win could easily tell you. The Musketeers will do the same thing tonight in order to limit drives from Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen. Also, they are a bit small on the interior, so this should stop the Arizona bigs from getting easy buckets inside. I still think the Wildcats will pull this one out, however, the Musketeers will make them fight for it.
Bonus Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals -1.5, +165 (10 units wagered, 16.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: CSN-MA
Meaningless regular season games are where the Caps strive. Okay, this has important seeding implications on the line, but still, at this point, nothing matters until the middle of April. I made this point the last time people hyped up a Jackets-Caps game in D.C., and the Caps killed the Jackets. So, I am just going to stick with that logic.
Saturday: 1-2
Overall: 108-97-7 (+105.5 Units)
March: 26-24: (+5.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 6-3 (+27 units)
Sorry for the hiatus. The tourney definitely kept me off the NBA and NHL track, so I didn't feel comfortable making picks this week. Regardless, the tourney starts back up tonight, and we are ready to roll.
Michigan Wolverines vs Oregon Ducks + 1 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:09 EST TV: CBS
Watch this video of Dillion Brooks. Now, watch this one. Yes, the man has ice in his veins. It must be from his Canadian uprbringing. There is not a single person I want taking the last shot other than Mr. Brooks. Michigan is a very nice story and that is probably inflating their value a little bit. I know they are very hot, but there is a reason they are #7 seed. At some point the shots have to stop falling, and I think tonight is the night. Yes, the loss of Chris Boucher was huge, but people seem to forget, they have another incredible rim protector in Jordan Bell. Also, there defense is pretty stout overall, ranked #25 in the Kenpom in defensive efficiency. The Ducks are the more balanced squad, and I think, that along with a clutch Dillion Brooks basket, will get them the "upset."
West Virginia Mountaineers vs Gonzaga Bulldogs -3.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 7:39 EST TV: TBS
I have the Zags winning the whole thing, so I'm going to stick my pick. The Bulldogs have many detractors. Tonight, haters think that West Virginia is their first real test. Well, they also played and beat two other teams playing this weekend, so they are wrong. They are also scared that the Bulldogs will not be able to handle "Press Virginia" and their ability to force turnovers. Well, there aren't many teams that throw out four guards to handle high pressure defenses. Gonzaga is one of those teams. Josh Perkins, Jordan Matthews, Silas Melson, and of course, Nigel Williams-Goss can do it. Also, West Virginia historically crashes out by the Sweet Sixteen. The one exception during the Bob Huggins era was in 2010, when they had a college super star in Da'Sean Butler. I love Jevon Carter, but he is not a college super star. Also, worth noting, although not incredibly relevant, the one time these two schools met in the tourney (2012), Gonzaga rocked West Virginia. No players remain, but Mark Few definitely knows how to beat Bobby's press. I'm rolling with the Zags tonight and will be as long as their play allows me.
Xavier Musketeers +7.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs Arizona Wildcats
Time: 10:09 EST TV: TBS
Xavier is the lowest seed left in the tourney, and they got to the Sweet Sixteen in pretty convincing fashion. In their win over Florida State, the Musketeers played a a lot of zone to turn the Seminoles' athletes in to shooters. It worked very well as a 25 point win could easily tell you. The Musketeers will do the same thing tonight in order to limit drives from Allonzo Trier and Kadeem Allen. Also, they are a bit small on the interior, so this should stop the Arizona bigs from getting easy buckets inside. I still think the Wildcats will pull this one out, however, the Musketeers will make them fight for it.
Bonus Pick: Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals -1.5, +165 (10 units wagered, 16.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: CSN-MA
Meaningless regular season games are where the Caps strive. Okay, this has important seeding implications on the line, but still, at this point, nothing matters until the middle of April. I made this point the last time people hyped up a Jackets-Caps game in D.C., and the Caps killed the Jackets. So, I am just going to stick with that logic.
Saturday: 1-2
Overall: 108-97-7 (+105.5 Units)
March: 26-24: (+5.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 6-3 (+27 units)
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