Daily Three 3/6

 Hello,

 We enjoyed a nice 2-1 effort yesterday as the Badgers finally figured out their issues. However, I do have to defend the team that was our only loss yesterday. The Illinois State Redbirds are a very good basketball team and deserve to hear their named called by Greg Gumbel on Sunday. I'm sure yesterday was the first time many of the selection committee members watched this team, and well, it is a damn shame. They are currently a top 50 team in the Kenpom and RPI (will probably go down as the week continue). There are teams outside of the top 50 in both rating systems that will probably make the tourney ahead of them. If anything, yesterday was proof that Wichita State is really good, and there is going to be a 1 or 2 seed grumbling on Sunday when they find out that they will be playing the Shockers on Saturday or Sunday. So Selection Committee, do what is right and get the Redbirds into the Big Dance.

 Tonight, we got three more bids being handed out, and we will be looking at two of them. Also, we got our favorite hockey team playing at home, so we should be in an exciting night of basketball and hockey.

NHL
Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals -1.5, +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7:30 EST TV: NBCSN

I don't need to say too much about this one. The Capitals have won 15 straight games on home ice, and the streak does not appear to be ending any time soon. There is a little concern with the fact that they have struggled to score goals in the first two games of this home stand. However, I will credit it towards playing two very familiar teams that are in the same division. Those teams need to grind to keep up with the Caps. The Stars are the total opposite. If they try to grind, the Caps will just out-finesse them. It has been a lost season in Dallas, and it is most likely going to get worse tonight in the District. Go with the surest thing in sports at the moment, the Washington Capitals at the Verizon Center.

NCAAB
East Tennessee State Buccaneers -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)  vs UNC Greensboro Spartans
Time: 7 PM EST TV: ESPN

In the Southern Conference Championship Game, we got the Buccaneers and the Spartans duking it out for the conference's only tournament bid. When I originally looked at this matchup, I was leaning towards the Spartans. They had won both previous meetings between the two schools this season, and they were the number one seed in the tournament. However, after a deeper look, it appears that the Bucs are the pick here. First, it is incredibly difficult to beat a team three times in the season, especially a team that is better than you. The Kenpom has the Bucs ranked as the 66th best team in the country, while the Spartans are the 123rd best team in the land. Second, you very rarely find a lower seed favored by so much. The public will normally just look at the seeds for the teams and just assume the higher seed is better. In this case, 66% of ATS bets are on the Spartans. These bets have helped push the line down a point. We appreciate that public, because now we just need the Bucs to win by 6 instead of 5. Lastly, the most startling revelation I came across involved UNC Greensboro's spot in the luck category of the Kenpom. As I'm sure you remember, we picked on USC a couple of weeks ago, because they were the luckiest team in the country. We knew that regression was in store for the Trojans and that they would get rocked by the Arizona Wildcats. We were correct with that judgement, as the Trojans lost, and we hit our lock of the month (the Trojans would go onto lose to sub top 100 Arizona State later that week, justifying our point even more). Well, guess who the luckiest team in the country is currently? If you guessed the UNC Greensboro Spartans, you would be correct. Kenpom says that they are very fortunate to have their current record and essentially says they were lucky to beat the Bucs at all. Here at the Daily Three, we know when a team's fortunes are about to change. Tonight, we know the Spartans' NCAA tourney aspirations will turn into an NIT berth (first place team in each conference is guaranteed a spot in the NIT if they don't qualify for the NCAA Tournament). So, go with the Bucs tonight and cheer on as they return to the Big Dance.

College of Charleston Cougars +2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) vs UNC Wilmington Seahawks
Time: 7 PM EST TV: CBSSN

 In the Colonial Athletic Association Championship, we have two teams that split their two meetings this season. I have two reasons that the Cougars should be able to cover this spread. First, the Cougars are essentially playing a home game. I mentioned during the first conference tournament right up that most of these games will be at neutral sites. Well, this one is being played in Charleston, because Charleston is one of the best cities in America (no joke). It is worth noting that is not the same gym that the Cougars play their home games, but it is nonetheless in the same city. Many bettors probably assume that the game is being played at some neutral site where the fan bases will cancel each other out. That will not be the case tonight in this game, we should expect a very pro-Cougar crowd. The second reason is we got some sharp money going our way. 67% of ATS bets have been placed on the Seahawks thus far. However, the spread has dropped a half point to 2.5. The sharps are probably aware, just like we are, that this is a virtual home game for the Cougars. I'm going to side with the "home team" and the sharp bettors tonight in this matchup of the Carolinas.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 91-83-6 (+99.5 Units)
March: 9-9 (-0.5 Units)