Sunday, March 26, 2017

Daily Three 3/26

 Hello,

 Sorry for not doing a post yesterday. That Badger loss was brutal. Great, they covered, I don't care. Still, thankful for the four seniors and their great achievements at the UW. Also, I am thankful for them being such great ambassadors for the university. Anyway, to make up for giving you nothing yesterday, I am giving you my lock of the month today. So, let's do it.

 Brooklyn Nets +6.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
Time: 1 EST TV: YES

 Honestly, I am just picking this game, because I need a third game. The Hawks are really struggling having lost their last six games. They also will be without three starters today including Paul Millsap. I know the Nets are the worst team in the league, but they have been playing better lately. Also, I would have to think that the Nets starting five can compete against the Hawks' bench. I'm going with the Nets today to at least cover against a flailing Hawks team.

 LOTM: 1-1 thus far
South Carolina Gamecocks vs Florida Gators -3 (22 units wagered, 20 units won)
Time: 2:20 EST TV: CBS

 Alright, here is our lock of the month. These two teams have played each other twice, and they split both meetings with the home team winning each game. However, it is definitely worth noting that the Gators did not have John Egbunu during their win like they will not have him during today's matchup. In terms of Kenpom, the Gators are the third best team in the country, while the Gamecocks sit at 26. Numbers favor the Gators, and personally, I just don't think that the Gamecocks can keep up the offensive productivity. Yes, they have been hot so far, but it is hard for incredibly efficient offenses to keep it up over a string of games in the tournament, let alone one that ranks outside of the Top 100 of the Kenpom offensive efficiency rankings. They are also going to have to maintain their hot shooting against the best defense they will face in this tournament. The Gators are currently the fourth best defense in the country according to Kenpom. Also, I am sure that the Gamecocks have surprised Marquette, Duke, and Baylor with their athleticism and physicality. Well, there will be no surprises today, as they have played each other multiple times. Gator coach, Mike Hill knows what it takes to beat this team, and his squad should not be shocked by anything they see out on the court today. Lastly, there are no significant betting trends that I notice. I guess a small majority has placed bets on the Gamecocks but that does not really sway my judgement. In situations like this where the two teams know each other very well, I just tend to go with the better team. The Gators are far and away the better team. We got this game on "lock." Take the Gators and reap the benefits.

Kentucky Wildcats +2.5 (11 units wagered, 10 units won) vs North Carolina Tar Heels
Time: 5:05 EST TV: CBS

 I have the Wildcats winning this game in my bracket, so I am just going to pick them here too. These two teams played one of the best games of the regular season as Malik Monk took over and led the Wildcats to victory. He probably will not be unstoppable today, but the growth of fellow freshmen De'Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo should be enough to carry the 'Cats toady. Also, just like the Gamecocks, I am not that impressed by the Tar Heels thus far. They definitely had the easiest road of any team that made to the Elite Eight this season, and they struggled with the Arkansas Razorbacks in the second round. The Razorbacks, an SEC team, got rocked by the Wildcats both times they played this season. Common teams and head-to-head are the only two factors that can be considered, but the Tar Heels have been able to beat teams by either outmuscling them or just being better athletes. They will not have that advantage today, and I think it will definitely show, especially late in the game. I'm sticking with my bracket and am going with Big Blue Nation. You should too.

Friday: 2-1
Overall: 112-100-7 (+113.5 Units)
March: 30-27 (+13.5 Units)
NCAA Tournament: 10-5: (+45 Units)


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