Daily Three 2/16

 Hello,

 The Sharks scored five goals last night. They still lost the game. Give props to the Panthers though, they came out flying and wanted to give Jags a nice birthday presents. We split the other two games, but we will continue to fight on. Tonight is going to be our time zone edition, so be ready for a ton of references to travel.

 NHL
Philadelphia Flyers at Edmonton Oilers -1.5, +190 (10 units wagered, 19 units won)

 We've got beef in between two NHL players, and they involve teams that play on opposite coasts weird. Here is a nice link to how seriously the city of Edmonton is taking this game, but I will give a little background.  It all started last season in a matchup between these Flyers and Oilers. Future face of the league, Connor McDavid, was well on his way to winning the Calder Trophy (rookie of the year) and sparking what had been a fairly lifeless franchise this decade. However, just as things were looking up for the Oilers, disaster struck. Late in the second period of said game, McDavid was driving hard to the net, when he took a hit from Flyers defenseman, Brandon Manning, and went hard into the boards. McDavid got up gingerly and went back to the locker room. He would stay in the locker room for another 37 games, and ultimately, the hit ended his quest for the Calder Trophy. The Oilers slid back to irrelevance and struggled for another year. The two sides met for the first time since the big hit earlier this season. Look what happens after McDavid scores on the power play here, specifically at the :11 second mark. I'm not a lip reader, but I think I know what Connor was getting at. The Oilers would end up blowing a huge lead, and the Flyers ended up winning in overtime. After the game, the normally even-keeled McDavid went off on Manning, calling him "classless" and accusing Manning of injuring himself on purpose. Manning defended himself and said that guys in the league know who he is, and that he would never intentionally injure another player. Well, two months later, here we are for McDavid-Manning: Part 3. Honestly, who would you go with in a one-on-one battle between these two, the shining young star that is taking the league by storm, or the average defenseman that plays on a middling Philadelphia Flyers team. Yeah, I will go with McDavid every time. In regards to the teams, the Flyers are playing in the second of a back-to-back set after flying across North America to get to Alberta, where they would be playing the Flames and Oilers (they got smoked in Calgary last night). If you add on the hassle of having to go through Canadian customs, this team must be incredibly jet-lagged and gassed. I mean traveling two time zones is already tiring enough, but going through customs too, man that is tough. I expect McDavid's boys to have his back tonight against an exhausted Flyers squad and don't be surprised if Matty Hendricks drops the gloves with Manning (worth noting Hendricks might have the most underrated shootout move in the league).

NBA 
Boston Celtics at Chicago Bulls -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Man, the spread of this game has swung like a pendulum. First, it opened up with the Celtics favored by a point. Immediately following the original spread opened, sharp money pushed it all the way to Chicago being favored by a point. Then, D-Wade was announced out of tonight's game with a wrist injury, and the spread moved back to the opening line. Now, the spread is back with the Bulls, and they are now favored by a point. I could talk about how 75% of ATS bets are on the Celtics and yet the spread keeps moving towards the Bulls, but you have heard that spiel already. Plus, as I already promised, this is the time zone edition of the Daily Three. So, let's look at Boston's recent schedule: Last Wednesday at Sacramento, last Thursday at Portland, Saturday at Utah, Monday at Dallas, last night home against Philly, and then tonight they are in Chicago. Over the past week, the Celtics have traveled over FOUR different time zones, and after getting back to their base, they had to immediately fly all the way back to the central time zone to play the second of a back-to-back. This type of travel just takes an incredible toll on one's body, even the greatest athletes in the world. Not only will the Celtics be dealing with their body clocks having to deal with another time change, but they also will have to get over the mental hurdle of so much travel and the fact that most of these guys are about to start a week-long vacation (All-Star break starts Thursday). Yes, these guys are professionals, but I think they are really going to struggle both to focus on the task at hand tonight, as well as physically be able to keep with a more-rested Bulls team. I think Jimmy and Co. will go into the break with a big win over the Celtics.

NCAAB
Sacramento State Hornets at Montana Grizzlies -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

I don't know what I am doing with this. I don't know anything at all about these two teams, nor did I know that Sacramento State were the Hornets before having to look it up (notable alumni include Tom Hanks, NBC Nightly News Anchor, Lester Holt, and the Office's Creed Bratton). That being said, a tweet drew me to this game and also my roommate, Andrew. He has been a loyal reader since Day 1, so I thought this would be a good place to give him a shoutout (he is a Montana alumn). The tweet that caught my eye mentioned that the Hornets have one of the best records against the spread in the country since New Year's Day at 9-2. One of Andrew's main betting theories is that everything always regresses back to the mean. So Sacramento State bettors have gotten lucky, and that their record will begin to regress back towards .500. The Kenpom backs this theory as Hornets are currently the 63rd luckiest team in the country. Their overall ranking at #307 shows that despite the luck, they are a very bad basketball team. Montana on the other hand does benefit nearly as much from luck (ranked at #282) but still have a respectable #185 overall rating. It is worth noting that the luck category makes the teams efficiency more accurate. So, Sacramento State is lucky, so there efficiency numbers go down, as it does truly evaluate how good or bad they are. Montana has a poor luck rating, but it adds to their efficiency ratings. Bettors are backing the Hornets tonight as they are receiving 65% of bets ATS. They must be aware of Sacramento State's insane spread record but have not considered that it is due to regress. Go with the Grizz tonight in Missoula and be proud that you believe in the power of regression.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 62-56-5 (+60 units)
February: 18-26-1 (-66 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0