Daily Three 2/15

  Hello,

  Well, we finally had a good night. The Rams and Oilers took care of business, and we were a mere few inches wide on a empty net attempt from getting a much-needed undefeated night. However, we will take 2-1 and continue to build our momentum. The NBA is looking weird tonight, so we are going back to college along with the ice. Let's do it.

 NHL
Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks -1.5, +190 (10 units wagered, 19 units won)

 Jaromir Jagr turns 45 today. Think about how remarkable that is. The guy has been playing in the NHL since before I was born (1991), and yet he is still playing on the first line for a playoff contending team. Jagr is such a legend, I tend to forget the most disappointing stretch of his career, which of course happened in Washington. I remember the day he was traded to Washington for Kris Beech (biggest bust in Caps history) and a couple of other journeymen.  I was at summer camp, and the resident sports news guy announced the trade by butchering the name of each player involved. Without any care for my social status for the rest of that summer, I stood up and shouted probably as loud as I ever have in my life. I have never heard the end of it, and honestly, it probably would have been worth it, if the Jagr actually performed in DC. Instead, he was sent to New York and is now known as another disappointing chapter of Capitals hockey. Anyway tonight, his young Panthers squad will head out west to take on the Sharks, who are coming off of a disappointing road trip. Despite the rough results on the east coast, the Sharks are a significantly better team at the Shark Tank where they are 18-7-1. Brent Burns is making his case for not only the Norris Trophy (best defenseman) but is also looking to become the first defenseman to win the Hart Trophy since Chris Pronger in 2000. Plus, do you think Jagr's body is going to respond well after a 6+ hour flight from South Florida? I do not think so. The Panthers will take a while to adjust to the time change and knock the cobwebs off from a long flight, and the Sharks will take advantage with a nice multi-goal victory.

NCAAB

 Xavier Musketeers at Providence Friars -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)

 Yes, at first glance, this spread is very surprising. The Musketeers are significantly higher than the Friars in the Kenpom, and they have much better wins this season. How can we possibly go with Providence? Well, the Musketeers are running out of bodies, and the bodies they are losing, happen to be their best plays. Myles Davis, who was stuck in purgatory for most of the season, was finally knocked out for the season a few weeks ago for a mix of disciplinary and personal issues. Two weeks ago, guard, Edmond Summer, suffered a season-ending injury for the second straight season. Now, news has come out that Xavier's best player Trevon Bluiett is doubtful for tonight's game with an ankle injury. Bluiett is a star and was supposed to take Xavier to the next level this season. However, the Musketeers have just been unable to live up to expectations. Despite the up and down year and Bluiett's status for tonight, the public still likes Xavier tonight as the majority of ATS bets are going with them. Still, the line continues to move in Providence's direction, and I think it is going to get all the way up to -5.5. This is a combination of the Bluiett's status and sharp money pouring in on the Friars. I am going to follow the money and make the surprising pick. The Friars will ball tonight as if Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil were still there.

Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)

 I have harped on regression with the Terps in the past, and I will continue to do so until their record starts to match their computer ratings. Maryland is now at 21-4, which is a remarkable record. Despite the many wins, the Kenpom is just not impressed with the Turtles. They are currently ranked at #38, and there is not a Power 6 team with as many losses as them below them in the rankings. 15-11 Clemson and 14-11 Wake Forest are still ranked ahead of them in these rankings. Also, they rank 53rd in the nation in terms of luck (there are 351 teams in the Kenpom rankings). There is no denying that they are talented, but at some point, there luck is going to run out and their record is going to regress in a way that better equates their record with their computer rankings. Tonight, they will go against a Northwestern team that is coming off of arguably the biggest win in program history (I know it is crazy that a Big Ten school's biggest win ever could come in February). The Wildcats shocked the world on Sunday by going into the Kohl Center and beating the previously #7 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. It may have been the win that gets them into their first NCAA tournament in school history, but I think they still have little more to prove. Tonight, they get another chance to build onto their resume against this Terrapin team that the public just seems to drool over. 64% of ATS spreads are on the Turtles, yet the line is not really moving at all. Sharp money must be keeping the spread, where it is. I'm sure the sharps love the higher Kenpom rating, and the hyped-up crowd that will be showing up in Evanston tonight to support the Cats. I think the Cats will put themselves even closer to hearing their name on Selection Sunday and get a big win over a Maryland team that is bound to regress back to the mean.

Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 61-54-5 (+71 units)
February: 17-24-1 (-55 units)
20 unit picks: 1-0