Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Daily Three 4/12

 Hello,

 Alright, the hiatus is over. My favorite time of the year is here as the NHL playoffs start tonight. Tonight will kick off an action-packed couple of months with baseball getting going, the UEFA Champions league revving up, and the NBA playoffs starting on Saturday. The focus, today, will be on the NHL, so let's get to it.

NHL 

Boston Bruins at Ottawa Senators +115 (10 units wagered, 11.5 units won)
Time: 7 EST TV: NHL Network

 We start tonight in the Canada's capitol, as the Bruins and Senators return to the postseason after their absence from last year's edition. Many people are jumping on the Bruins in this series as they have "veteran leadership" and a really strong scoring line in Patrice Bergeron, David Backes, and Brad Marchand. However, I am not sold on the Bruins, especially in Ottawa. First, the Bruins are incredibly banged up on their blue line. Power play stud, Torrey Krug, will not play tonight, and Zdeno Chara's right-hand man, Brando Carlo, will also be sitting out with an upper body injury. Things have gotten so dire for the Bruins, they were forced to sign top prospect, Charlie McAvoy, to an entry-league contract, so he could suit up tonight. By signing this contract, the Bruins essentially given up a year of team control over McAvoy. It seems like a risky endeavor for a team that doesn't have a great chance to go the distance. Also, at least in Ottawa, the aforementioned "Killer B's" line will be matched with Erik Karlsson every time they are on the ice. Karlsson is a two-time Norris trophy winner (best defenseman) and is still one of the more under-appreciated players in the NHL. If Karlsson can shut down this line consistently over the first two games in Ottawa, there is a good chance, Marchand loses his head and takes unneccesarry penalties that will severely hurt his team. Until the Bruins get their blue line situated, I think the Sens are in good position to head into Boston with a 2-0 lead. Trust the best defenseman in hockey to shut down the Bruins and help the Sens take a 1-0 lead in the series.

St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild +105, regulation time (9.5 units wagered, 10 units won)
Time: 9:30 EST TV: NBCSN

 First, let me clarify the odds. The Wild must win the game in regulation. If they get the win in overtime, it would count as a loss. I am taking this chance, because the Wild are currently -170 on the money line. Vegas thinks they have a very good shot at winning this game. So, let's just a wager about 7.5 units less and take something that Vegas expects to happen. Anyway, the interesting storyline coming into this series is St. Louis Blues coach, Mike Yeo, returning to Minnesota to coach against the team that fired him after last season. Yeo was able to turn things around in Minnesota, as he made the playoffs consistently over his tenure. However, he was never able to get over the proverbial hump, as the Wild were never able to get past the second round, usually falling to the Blackhawks. Also, the team strayed towards protecting their net and could never get it going offensively. Thus, the Wild brought Bruce Boudreau to use his run n' gun system, and it really got all four lines scoring for the Wild. The Blues have picked things up over the past month, but the Wild are still a significantly better team. The Blues' own GM even knows this as he traded his best defenseman at the trade deadline for a decent haul, instead of making a run for the Cup. Give props to the Blues for continuing to fight, but their stay in the playoffs should be short. Go with the Wild to win tonight in 60 minutes.

San Jose Sharks +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won) at Edmonton Oilers
Time: 10 EST TV: USA

 Welcome to the big time Connor McDavid. All eyes will be on Mr. McDavid tonight as he plays in his first playoff game along with many other Oilers, who as a franchise have not made the playoffs in 11 years (previously the longest drought in the NHL). Although I imagine Connor will win many playoff games with this franchise, he will not win his first one tonight. I am going to jump on the Sharks, as I see some value with their high money line total. After years of being labeled chokers, San Jose finally broke through last year and made the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in franchise history. Although they ended up losing in 6, it set the tone for this franchise that they can take it to the next level. They are dealing with a couple of injuries to key cogs Joe Thornton and Logan Couture, who are both game time decisions tonight. However, I cannot imagine that they would not suit up tonight. Once, it is announced that they will play, I am guessing this line falls 20 or so points. So, I am going to jump on it now and hope that experience will trump youth in the first game of this series.

Last Monday: 0-3
Overall: 113-105-7 (+78.5 units)



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