Thursday, February 9, 2017

Daily Three 2/9

 Hello,

 A rough 1-2 slate last night. The Nevada Wolfpack are the real deal. They should definitely be on your radar when you making your bracket next month. I guess the public ended up being right jumping on Baylor and Denver, but we will just call that a case of fool's gold. Tonight, we going to hit the ice and the hardwood pretty hard. Very excited with our options, so let's get to it.

NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals -1.5, +117 (10 units wagered, 11.7 units won)

 You know how I feel about this Caps team. We are just going to keep rolling with them on home ice until we are proven otherwise. If you want an unbiased view on this game, I will pass it on to fellow blogger, Brandon. He has a good feel for this one, as well (However, they traditionally lose before the Conference Finals, man).

NCCAB
Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 Lots of eyes are going to be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium as UNC and Duke renew their heated rivalry once again. However, my eyes will be glued in on another classic building on the west coast known as Pauley Pavilion, as the Oregon Ducks and UCLA Bruins battle during this week's segment of Pac 12 after dark. I have been fortunate enough to go to Pauley three times in my life, twice before the renovation and once after, and it is definitely one of the more historical sports arenas you will ever step foot in. All of the national title banners are hanging from the rafters, the great players that have stepped on that court like Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and of course the greatest coach possibly in the history of American sports, John Wooden, who patrolled the Bruins for ten national titles. It is a place with such a great legacy, and I get chills every time I have ever walked into that concourse. I cannot imagine what it will be like for the freshmen and other new-comer Ducks that will take their first steps on Nell and John Wooden Court. In terms of the actual game, this is going to be a battle of the tempos. The Ducks play at a rather slow pace, only generating 66.5 possessions a game. They like to use the shot clock and make sure that they go through their entire offensive set before getting a shot off. The Bruins are the complete opposite and like getting shots off early and often. UCLA is averaging around 74.5 possessions a game, which ranks as the tenth highest pace in the country. The biggest key for the Ducks on offense will be to make sure, they are getting efficient shot attempts and making sure the Bruins cannot get into transition. If they take poor shots and allow Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf to get easy boards, the Bruins will be off and running. Those two big men know where Lonzo Ball is at all times, and he is pretty much unstoppable if you give him open space. The biggest key for the Bruins will be to make the Ducks uncomfortable offensively and force quick, inefficient shot selection. If UCLA can jump out to an early lead, it might force the young Ducks to feel as if they need to play fast to keep up. If UCLA can get them to fall for this trap, this could be a cakewalk for the Bruins. Earlier this year, the Ducks beat the Bruins 89-87 on a crazy, buzzer-beating three by Oregon star, Dillion Brooks. UCLA had that game under control and were able to get Oregon to play way faster than they wanted to be playing. Tonight in Pauley, the home crowd will be roaring (no pun intended) and essentially helping push the pace of play. I think home court advantage is going to be a gigantic factor, as young college players normally get suckered into playing the home team's style of play. I'm going with the Pauley faithful in what should be a fun, high scoring affair in Westwood.

BYU Cougars -8.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Pepperdine Waves

 Bang bang. Bang bang. Bang bang. We got a late night hammer. Is Vegas really going to give us another gift concerning the Pepperdine Waves? The Cougars are currently ranked #73 in the Kenpom, while the Waves finally broke the top 300, Woooooo!!!!!! They are now #296. That is a remarkable 223 spot difference in the poll, which is a greater differential than the Waves had with the Dons last week in the game that we won. The two teams played earlier this year in Provo and the Cougars won 99-70. I mean, the Cougars should just wipe the floor with this Waves team who has struggled to stop anyone all year. They currently rank #311 in defensive efficiency. The Cougars offense isn't incredibly efficient offensively at #114, but they are the fourth fastest team in the country, averaging 76.7 possessions a game. If they just hit a two pointer on half of their possessions (76 possessions to be realistic about the actual amount of possessions you can have in a game), they would drop 76 points (yes sorry, that is obvious math). However, this team jacks up threes, averaging around 19 three pointers attempted a game. The Cougars are going to drop at least a Benjamin tonight, as we get more easy money off of Pepperdine. Also, don't feel too bad for the Waves, they can go hang out on the beach at Malibu after their loss.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 55-42-5 (+119.3 units)
February: 11-12-1 (-6.7 units)


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