Daily Three 2/13

 Hello,

 Sorry for the lull over the weekend. An early flight along with some other activities made it tricky to make and write up effective picks. It is unacceptable on my part, and I will do my best to reduce this in the future. Tonight, we are back with picks from all across the sporting spectrum. So, let's do it.

 NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)

 The Flames are literally on fire. They have won 4 of their past 5 games, including nice wins against the Penguins and the Wild. The Flames have also already beaten the Coyotes four times this season, including two wins by multiple goals. The 'Yotes are a league worst 6-17-1 on the road and currently have the second worst goal differential in the league at -45. All signs point to a big victory for Calgary, so I am going to jump on it and get some value to boot.

NBA
Los Angles Clippers at Utah Jazz -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)

 In this battle between two hated NBA nicknames, I am once again going against the public. Currently, 70% of ATS bets are on the Clippers. I can understand why the public would jump on this spread. Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers are a very popular team. They still have high-flyers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan plus a championship coach in Doc Rivers. Any time the public can get this many points with LA, they are probably going to take it. However, the sharps side with me on this one. Despite the popularity following LA, the spread has actually moved up a point from -7 Jazz to -8 Jazz. There are a few things to consider when trying to figure out how the sharps pushed this line. First, the Jazz are a very good home team, sporting a 19-10 record in Salt Lake City. The Clippers aren't terrible on the road at 16-13 but playing in the high altitude definitely has an effect on players that do not normally play in those conditions. Second, the Jazz actually have a better record than the Clippers. Yes, it is only a half game difference, but I guarentee if you asked the casual NBA fan, which of these two teams is higher up in the standings, you would most likely hear, Clippers. Lastly and I think most importantly, the Jazz probably have the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, Playing in the mountains, many casual fans may not know the "Flying Frenchman," but he currently leads the league in blocks with 2.5 a game. LA's main source of offense comes from attacking the paint with Blake and DeAndre. Tonight, they are going to have a difficult time scoring inside with Gobert standing by ready to block everything in sight. I think Big Rudy will be the big difference tonight and will ultimately lead the Jazz to cover.

NCAAB
Baylor Bears -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders

 We tried this with Kansas on Saturday, and it didn't work. Kansas was covering their -4.5 spread for most of the contest, and then ultimately faltered down the stretch. They did end up winning the game on the last possession but failed to cover the spread. Why would I go back down this path after coming up unsuccessful on Saturday? Well, Baylor is actually a more efficient team than Kansas according to the Kenpom. Baylor is ranked #7, while Kansas was ranked #9. Second, Baylor presents a much tougher challenge defensively than Kansas did. Baylor is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency compared to Kansas, who ranks pretty low for a top ten team at #41. Most importantly though, we are giving up less points than we did on Saturday. Sure, a possession really doesn't seem like a huge difference, but in a close game that could come down to the final play, 2 points really does matter. Baylor should continue to keep pace with Kansas in the Big 12 race and get a big W in Lubbock tonight.

Saturday: 2-4
Overall: 59-50-5 (+87 Units)
February: 15-20-1 (-39 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0