The Daily Three

  Hello,

 Every day, I will look at three matchups (preferably one NBA, one NCAAB, and one NHL) and try to find good spreads that appear to add great value and can easily cover. Picks will also include NFL, MLB, and NCAAF (if not more) when necessary. Unfortunately, there are not very appealing match ups in the NHL. All of the home teams are considerable favorites and none of those road dogs offer much value. So tonight, we look at one NBA matchup and two NCAAB matchup

NBA 
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns (-2.5) 

 Yes, I understand the Phoenix Suns are a not a very good basketball team. But you know what else, the Miami Heat are also not very good. Miami is traveling cross-country with a very depleted roster (Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters, and Justice Winslow have already been ruled out) and very few good results lately to inspire confidence. Goran Dragic will most likely return from a three game absence, but who exactly willl he distribute the ball too? Tyler Johnson? Wayne Ellington? Luke Babbitt? Yeah, I think I will pass. It may discourage you to take the Suns playing in the second of a back-to-back after a loss to  a similarly depleted Clippers squad the night before. However, before yesterday's setback, the Suns had a couple of encouraging results including a nice home win against Eastern Conference Power Toronto. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker should run the show tonight and win handedly at home against the struggling Heat.

NCAAB
Arkansas at Tennessee (-2.5)

The Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Knoxville to take on Rick Barnes and the Volunteers tonight. The Rick Barnes era has not gotten off to the best of starts for Tennessee, however I do think they should prevail tonight over Mike Anderson's Razorbacks. The first thing I like to do when evaluating match ups is look at their Ken Pom ratings (probably the most effective and accurate ratings of college basketball teams in the country). Currently, Ken Pom has Arkansas at 42, while rating Tennessee slightly lower at 62. While the numbers show a significant difference, their adjusted efficiency ratings (which the whole rating system is based on is only about four points. For comparison's sake, that is the difference between number one ranked Kentucky and number ten, undefeated Gonzaga (both Final Four contenders). Also, both teams have fairly similar adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, with both teams being more efficient offensively than defensively.  Also, the Vols do have home court. Although Arkansas ranks higher, the home court advantage for Tennessee essentially washes out any advantage, so let's consider them even. Now that both teams are on even terms, there is one thing that really stands out, Strength of Schedule. Tennessee went out during the non-conference slate and challenged themselves. They played against likely Sweet 16 teams Wisconsin, Oregon, and Gonzaga. They did lose each game, but they did manage to hang close with each team and even took Oregon to overtime. Arkansas, however, failed to go out and play anyone that will impress the Selection Committee in March. I will give them credit for scheduling and winning at Texas, who in Shaka Smart's second year were expected to improve drastically. Still, the rest of the slate is unimpressive, and it shows in their Ken Pom non-conference SOS, a negative rating. Both teams' approaches to the first two months of the seasons may explain how Tennessee pulled out a tough win in their first conference game of the year at College Station against Texas A&M, while Arkansas fell at home in their first real test of the year to Florida. With this being said, expect the Volunteers to turn 40 minutes of hell into 40 minutes of leisure and come away with the two to three possession victory.

West Virginia at Texas Tech (+2.5)

Something about 2.5, right. Anyway, one of the ways Vegas tries to trick us is throw spreads like this at us. At first glance, this looks ridiculous. West Virginia is a top ten team going against decent squad that hasn't even received any top 25 votes, how does Vegas possibly think this will be a one possession game. Well, there are a few things to consider. One, there are not many things more difficult in college basketball than going on the road in-conference and getting a victory. Just ask UNC and Duke how they fared last weekend against perennial doormats Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, respectively. The students will be in full force in Lubbock and will most certainly create a chaotic environment. Second, the two teams' Ken Pom ratings are not very far off, as there is only a twenty spot difference between the two teams, although their efficiency ratings are definitely further apart than the two teams mentioned above. Lastly, we have to consider what is going on with Vegas and the other books. As noted above, the spread currently has Texas Tech receiving 2.5 points. However, Texas Tech opened up at +4 and have been only receiving 20% of the bets since it has opened. This must mean that the sharp bettors (the people that matter) are putting large money on Tech and pushing the line down. This is what is called reverse line movement. When this happens, I tend to lean with the sharps. In full honestly though, the key to this game will be if Texas Tech can control the pace of the game and break the stingy West Virginia press. West Virginia plays at a very  high tempo that is ranked up at 45, while Texas Tech is quite the opposite and plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, all the way down at 327. If Texas Tech can get the game to be played that slow, Chris Beard may come away with his first big win in Lubbock.