Daily Three 1/30

  Hello,

  So yesterday was our first under .500 day since the Saturday debacle. I took a chance with two craphoot all-star games and faltered. My bad. Tonight provides us with a short slate but with some great opportunities to pounce. So, let's get to it.

NBA
Detroit Pistons +5 at Boston Celtics

 Wow, am I really going to do this. I really don't know if I can. For newer readers, the Pistons and I have had a very rocky relationship. It all started when the Pistons blew a twenty point lead in the fourth quarter of a game against the Hornets. The spread in that game was -5 Pistons. They would go on to win by 2. From there, I consistently picked on them and it led to wonderful results. At first glance, it would be ridiculous for an unbiased person to take the Pistons on the road in Boston, let alone someone who has shown great disdain for the Pistons and their stupid nickname. However, in the game of sports betting, we must be able to forget about spurned opportunities and take gifts when they are given to you. In this matchup, the Celtics will already be without Amir Johnson and star 2 guard Avery Bradley. Also, Al Horford is questionable and with the spread at its current state, I would imagine that the books think he is not playing tonight. Despite missing a few key players, the public still believes that the Celtics will get the job done tonight. 66% of current spread bets are on the Celtics tonight. So, 2/3rds of the betting public believe that the Celtics will perform, which is an incredibly large portion. Now, here is the kicker, despite the great confidence in the Celtics from the public, the spread has dropped a full point from when it opened. This must mean there is some serious sharp money on the Pistons. All of the indicators are pointing towards the Pistons, so even though it pains me to do it, we got go all in with Detroit tonight.

NCAAB
Duke Blue Devils -1.5 at Notre Dame Fighting Irish

 So, the Blue Devils have a long history of a white dudes playing villains for their basketball team. Bobby Hurley, Steve Wojciechowsk, Christian Laettner, Greg Paulus, JJ Redick, and I am nowhere near the end of the list. As I am sure you know, Grayson Allen is currently playing the role of Duke villain. While Allen is drawing the public's attention with his fiery play and childish antics, there is another white dude playing for the Blue Devils that you should probably start focusing you attention on. Luke Kennard is the sophomore sharpshooter, who is quietly leading the team in scoring. The man can just flat out shoot and is a solid rebounder. He also drained the game-winning three against Wake Forest on Saturday in a game they were totally outplayed in. Despite his skills, he is just annoying as any other white guy that has ever played for Duke. I mean look at this face. Ugh..... Anyway, we are dealing with the same betting metrics as the Pistons-Celtics game. Notre Dame is getting 3/5ths of the spread bets. Despite the public siding with the Irish, the spread has gone from a pick em' to Duke being favored by a 1.5. Virginia came into South Bend last week and laid a smack down on Notre Dame. I would not be surprised if the Blue Devils do the same thing.

Oklahoma State Cowboys -1.5 at Oklahoma Sooners

 Every Monday, there are only two college basketball games in Power 6 that are commonly associated with ESPN's Big Monday. Yes, occasionally there is a weaker game that they put on ESPNU, but ESPN really wants you to watch a marquee ACC game in the early slate and then keep the tube on for an exciting Big 12 game right after it. Tonight, ESPN did not get very lucky with its Big 12 game. The two Oklahoma schools are a combined 4-12 in conference and have really struggled to live up to expectations. I bet ESPN is scrambling to get a rerun of that Federer-Nadal fifth set on instead of this intrastate rivalry. I mean seriously that Federer-Nadal fifth set was one of the more riveting sports' sequences I have ever watched in my life. The two greatest men to ever step on a tennis court just hitting consistent, powerful groundstrokes, chasing balls that most men cannot normally get to, and coming up with gigantic serve after gigantic serve when they needed to, it was just incredible. I know it is just a game between two people I have never met, but in such bleak times around the world, watching a match like that can really help you start to believe in magic again. Damn, anyway, this pick is strictly a Kenpom pick. Oklahoma State is ranked 22nd, Oklahoma is ranked 73rd. The spread just doesn't add up. Go with the Cowboys in the Bedlam Series.

Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 39-29-4 (+91 units)