Hello,
Yesterday was an incredibly frustrating day for us. What at one point looked like a 3-0 night, suddenly turned into a 1-1-1 disappointment. While the Capitals absolutely blew out the Blue Jackets, like they normally do in overhyped January hockey games, the Pistons blew an 18 point fourth quarter league, only to be bailed out by the refs on a questionable Kemba Walker foul and win by a single point. Nebraska, also blew many opportunities to put their game out of reach with poor free throw shooting (19-35), and could only get us the push. Some books had this game at -2.5, so hopefully most people got it at that number. Overall, an even night is not terrible, especially after two previous winning nights. We are back at it with a pick in each the NHL, NBA, and NCAAB.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Anaheim Ducks (-1.5, +135)
With this pick, we are just going back to well. The Ducks did very well for us on Wednesday night with a 2-0 win over the Red Wings. The Ducks now get an even easier task against a Coyotes team that has lost eight in a row and has only averaged about a goal a game during that span. The Yotes have some of the worst Corsi numbers in the league, have trouble possessing the puck, and are currently dealing with some injury troubles, more specifically young star, Max Domi. Basically, the Coyotes are a dumpster fire at the moment and will need to put up some goals in order to change that image. With our boy John Gibson back in net tonight for the Ducks, Arizona should continue their scoring woes, and the Ducks should take care of business once again tonight. Worth noting, Ryan Getzlaf will miss tonight's game, but it did not stop the Ducks on Wednesday.
NBA
Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers -2.5
Well, it certainly seems like there is a theme tonight in these first two picks. In our NBA pick, we are going after our favorite team to attack, the Miami Heat. I do have to give the Heat some credit, they did pull off a nice win the other night in Sacramento as big underdogs. However, performances like those tend to be outliers rather than signs of things to come. The Heat are still without Hassan Whiteside and Justice Winslow recently had season-ending surgery on his shoulder. So, the onus once again falls on Goran Dragic's shoulders to carry the load for this very thin Heat roster. For a guy who constantly gets injured himself, I think it may be too tall of task for him and his team. They will be playing their third game in four nights on this road trip that is a very far distance from their home in Miami. There is some concern with the Lakers, as they will be playing in the second of back-to-back games. However, the Lakers seem to have gotten through their rough patch of injuries and should be getting Luol Deng back tonight after missing last night's game with a biceps injury. Also, as I mentioned earlier, the Heat are playing their third game in four nights. Keep going with the flow, and take the Lakers over the Heat.
NCAAB
Rhode Island Rams at Dayton Flyers -2
This is going to be a fun game in a great environment between two evenly matched teams. The Rhode Island Rams were preseason darlings in the media (https://theringer.com/rhode-island-rams-cinderella-b86c653f086c) as they eagerly awaited the return of E.C. Matthews. In 2014-2015, Matthews was one of the breakthrough players for the Rams and was looking to build onto this success in the 2015-2016 season. However, Matthews blew out his knee in the first half of their first game and the Rams could never recover. With Matthews back in the fold and Hassan Martin, Jarvis Garrett, and Kuran Iverson returning, this team seems destined to make it back to the Big Dance for the first time in this century. Under Archie Miller, Dayton has just been consistently good. The Flyers have been in the tourney the past three seasons, including a sweet sixteen appearance in 2014, and look like they are on pace to make it again this year. Led by Charles Cooke and Scoochie Smith (seriously how does he still have eligibility), the Flyers have gotten off to a good start to the year and will look to build onto it tonight. These teams could not be much more even. The Flyers are ranked 32 in the Ken Pom rankings while the Rams are right behind them at 33. They are only separated in adjusted efficiency by .02 points! Their non-conference strength of schedules are also basically the same as Rhode Island beats out by Dayton by a couple of spots. Rhode Island is pretty balanced and rates high on both sides of the ball, while Dayton relies more on their stingy defense, although they are competent on the offensive side of the floor. These teams are fairly even, so there are two things that lead me towards the Flyers. One, they have an incredible home court advantage. This home court experience is rewarded every year as the University hosts the First Four of the tournament every season. Second, the Flyers are very good at home against the spread, while the Rams have struggled on the road against the spread. The Flyers are 4-2 at home against the spread and 4-1 as a home favorite, while the Rams are 1-3 on the road and have lost their only game of the year as road dogs. Yes, this isn't the largest sample size, but the numbers do not lie, the Flyers play well at home. These teams will meet twice this year, and I think they will split their meetings with the home team winning each game. Tonight, they are playing Dayton and the rowdy crowd will push them to victory.
Last night: 1-1-1
Overall: 6-3-1
Friday, January 6, 2017
Thursday, January 5, 2017
The Daily Three 1/5
Hello,
We are back for another round after a very successful day at 3-1. Michigan State and the Charlotte Hornets took care of business fairly easily against Rutgers and Oklahoma City, respectively. The Ducks got a late goal to give us a big value win 2-0 over the Red Wings. Our one downfall was once again in the SEC as another home favorite, Georgia, went down. If we take out SEC basketball, we got a perfect 5-0 mark. However, we include everything here and will continue trying to get better as time goes on. Today, we go back to the traditional three picks, and we will be looking at one game each in the NHL, NBA, and NCAAB.
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals +110
I will not lie, this pick reeks of homerism and picking with the heart as I am huge Caps fan. Normally, I try to avoid letting emotion affect the way I pick, but my bittersweet history with this team leads me to believe that they will pull it out tonight and end the Blue Jackets' epic streak. For those that don't know, Columbus is currently on a 16 game win streak, which as I am sure you can tell, is one of the longest win streaks in the history of the sport. Initially, one would think I am crazy for wanting to go against this juggernaut. However, there are a couple of reasons that I am siding with the Caps here, outside of being a fan. For one as any true Caps fan knows, there is no team better at winning overhyped, somewhat meaningless regular season hockey games. Obviously, every game counts. Two points can be the difference between home ice, making the playoffs, etc. However, the Caps always seem to be victorious in these January regular season games that get intensified by the hockey media. For example, they have won both of their Winter Classic match ups against the Penguins and Blackhawks, and boy were they excited about those wins. Look back at an old YouTube video from the 2011 game against the Penguins and look how fired up they are. It was as if they had just won the Eastern Conference. The Capitals, of course, did not win the Eastern Conference that year and have not done so (let alone get past the second round) since 1998. Also, the Caps have lost seven of eight playoff series' against the Pens, so I guess they should celebrate while they can. Also, the Blackhawk team they beat in the 2015 Winter Classic, went on to win the Stanley Cup that year. You know what, maybe I want the Caps to lose this game so they can go on to win the Cup. Na, they will win this game and the Cup, I know it. If you want a statistical reason to go with the Caps, you are getting incredible value as they are never underdogs, especially at home. In fact, they have been underdogs only one time this season (they won that game). So if anything, take advantage of a rare opportunity where the Washington Capitals are underdogs and cheer when the streak finally ends tonight in D.C.
NBA
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons -4.5
Last night, we went against the public and sided with the Charlotte Hornets in their big home victory against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. After they came through for us last night, why would we suddenly just turn on them? Well, we can look back at something I brought up last night that will support this argument. The Hornets are completely different team on the road. Against the spread on the road, they are at 7-9-1 and as road underdogs 1-2-1. The most interesting tidbit that is seen from these two records is that the Hornets have been favorites on the road at a much higher clip than most teams in this league tend to be. As favorites, they struggle to cover, so I do not have much confidence that they will be able to cover as road dogs. Also, as already noted, they did play last night, so they maybe restricting minutes or resting some of their key guys. The Pistons are entering this contest pretty fresh and fairly healthy. I would expect Andre Drummond to exploit some mismatches inside, while point guard, Reggie Jackson, should be able to take advantage of Kemba Walker's defensive struggles. The Pistons should pull off a rather routine victory at home and put away the tired Hornets.
NCAAB
Iowa at Nebraska -3
SEC basketball has really not been treating us very well. So, I am going to look at a matchup in my favorite conference. The Iowa Hawkeyes have really struggled this season to get over the loss of star forward Jared Uthoff. Currently sitting at 9-6 (they only lost 11 games last year), the Hawkeyes have a few bad losses on their resume, including a home upset at the hands of Nebraska-Omaha. Their lone bright spot is Peter Jok, who is averaging 22 points a game so far this season. The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, are exceeding expectations and are coming off of one of the biggest week's in the Tim Miles's era. Coming off big wins at Indiana and at Maryland, the Cornhuskers are looking to continue to ride this wave of momentum to a 3-0 start in conference play. Tai Webster and very tiny guard, Glynn Watson Jr., were huge for Nebraska and will most likely need to continue their torrid place to keep them afloat in the Big Ten. When we look at the numbers, the only things that these teams really share in common are their Ken Pom rankings. Iowa are at 75, while Nebraska is right there at 83, and there is only point separating the two. The home court edge becomes gigantic for Nebraska in this case. Their tempo numbers are polar opposites as the Hawkeyes like to push the pace as they rank 27th in tempo, while the Cornhuskers like to take their time and rank all the way down at 194. Whoever controls the pace of this game is going to most likely come out of this victorious, and at home, I think Nebraska should have no issues playing their game. Lastly, the most important thing that stood out to me is that Nebraska really went out in the non-conference slate and challenged themselves. Their non-conference SOS is ranked 17th and includes UCLA, Kansas, Virginia Tech, and Creighton. Iowa, on the other hand, played a fairly weak non-conference schedule, which was ranked all the way down at 285. Iowa played a really weak schedule and could only muster an 8-5 non-conference record, yuck! Being battle tested early in the season really helps your team with your first few conference games, as they help prepare you for the level of intensity you will be facing on a nightly basis. I think that home court advantage and Nebraska's earlier battles with highly ranked teams will benefit them greatly tonight, as they take down the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Last Night: 3-1
Overall: 5-2
We are back for another round after a very successful day at 3-1. Michigan State and the Charlotte Hornets took care of business fairly easily against Rutgers and Oklahoma City, respectively. The Ducks got a late goal to give us a big value win 2-0 over the Red Wings. Our one downfall was once again in the SEC as another home favorite, Georgia, went down. If we take out SEC basketball, we got a perfect 5-0 mark. However, we include everything here and will continue trying to get better as time goes on. Today, we go back to the traditional three picks, and we will be looking at one game each in the NHL, NBA, and NCAAB.
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets at Washington Capitals +110
I will not lie, this pick reeks of homerism and picking with the heart as I am huge Caps fan. Normally, I try to avoid letting emotion affect the way I pick, but my bittersweet history with this team leads me to believe that they will pull it out tonight and end the Blue Jackets' epic streak. For those that don't know, Columbus is currently on a 16 game win streak, which as I am sure you can tell, is one of the longest win streaks in the history of the sport. Initially, one would think I am crazy for wanting to go against this juggernaut. However, there are a couple of reasons that I am siding with the Caps here, outside of being a fan. For one as any true Caps fan knows, there is no team better at winning overhyped, somewhat meaningless regular season hockey games. Obviously, every game counts. Two points can be the difference between home ice, making the playoffs, etc. However, the Caps always seem to be victorious in these January regular season games that get intensified by the hockey media. For example, they have won both of their Winter Classic match ups against the Penguins and Blackhawks, and boy were they excited about those wins. Look back at an old YouTube video from the 2011 game against the Penguins and look how fired up they are. It was as if they had just won the Eastern Conference. The Capitals, of course, did not win the Eastern Conference that year and have not done so (let alone get past the second round) since 1998. Also, the Caps have lost seven of eight playoff series' against the Pens, so I guess they should celebrate while they can. Also, the Blackhawk team they beat in the 2015 Winter Classic, went on to win the Stanley Cup that year. You know what, maybe I want the Caps to lose this game so they can go on to win the Cup. Na, they will win this game and the Cup, I know it. If you want a statistical reason to go with the Caps, you are getting incredible value as they are never underdogs, especially at home. In fact, they have been underdogs only one time this season (they won that game). So if anything, take advantage of a rare opportunity where the Washington Capitals are underdogs and cheer when the streak finally ends tonight in D.C.
NBA
Charlotte Hornets at Detroit Pistons -4.5
Last night, we went against the public and sided with the Charlotte Hornets in their big home victory against Russell Westbrook and the Thunder. After they came through for us last night, why would we suddenly just turn on them? Well, we can look back at something I brought up last night that will support this argument. The Hornets are completely different team on the road. Against the spread on the road, they are at 7-9-1 and as road underdogs 1-2-1. The most interesting tidbit that is seen from these two records is that the Hornets have been favorites on the road at a much higher clip than most teams in this league tend to be. As favorites, they struggle to cover, so I do not have much confidence that they will be able to cover as road dogs. Also, as already noted, they did play last night, so they maybe restricting minutes or resting some of their key guys. The Pistons are entering this contest pretty fresh and fairly healthy. I would expect Andre Drummond to exploit some mismatches inside, while point guard, Reggie Jackson, should be able to take advantage of Kemba Walker's defensive struggles. The Pistons should pull off a rather routine victory at home and put away the tired Hornets.
NCAAB
Iowa at Nebraska -3
SEC basketball has really not been treating us very well. So, I am going to look at a matchup in my favorite conference. The Iowa Hawkeyes have really struggled this season to get over the loss of star forward Jared Uthoff. Currently sitting at 9-6 (they only lost 11 games last year), the Hawkeyes have a few bad losses on their resume, including a home upset at the hands of Nebraska-Omaha. Their lone bright spot is Peter Jok, who is averaging 22 points a game so far this season. The Cornhuskers, on the other hand, are exceeding expectations and are coming off of one of the biggest week's in the Tim Miles's era. Coming off big wins at Indiana and at Maryland, the Cornhuskers are looking to continue to ride this wave of momentum to a 3-0 start in conference play. Tai Webster and very tiny guard, Glynn Watson Jr., were huge for Nebraska and will most likely need to continue their torrid place to keep them afloat in the Big Ten. When we look at the numbers, the only things that these teams really share in common are their Ken Pom rankings. Iowa are at 75, while Nebraska is right there at 83, and there is only point separating the two. The home court edge becomes gigantic for Nebraska in this case. Their tempo numbers are polar opposites as the Hawkeyes like to push the pace as they rank 27th in tempo, while the Cornhuskers like to take their time and rank all the way down at 194. Whoever controls the pace of this game is going to most likely come out of this victorious, and at home, I think Nebraska should have no issues playing their game. Lastly, the most important thing that stood out to me is that Nebraska really went out in the non-conference slate and challenged themselves. Their non-conference SOS is ranked 17th and includes UCLA, Kansas, Virginia Tech, and Creighton. Iowa, on the other hand, played a fairly weak non-conference schedule, which was ranked all the way down at 285. Iowa played a really weak schedule and could only muster an 8-5 non-conference record, yuck! Being battle tested early in the season really helps your team with your first few conference games, as they help prepare you for the level of intensity you will be facing on a nightly basis. I think that home court advantage and Nebraska's earlier battles with highly ranked teams will benefit them greatly tonight, as they take down the Iowa Hawkeyes.
Last Night: 3-1
Overall: 5-2
Wednesday, January 4, 2017
The Daily Three (With a Bonus Pick) 1/4
Hello,
We are back at it tonight after a nice 2-1 effort yesterday. Texas Tech came through and pulled off the big upset, outright, against West Virginia, and the just like we predicted, the Heat were undermanned and outperformed by the host Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately, Tennessee could not hold onto a double digit lead against Arkansas, and they would end up losing the game, let alone failing to cover. However, we move onto tonight, where we have four plays that should be nice plays (1 NHL, 1 NBA, 2 NCAAB). So, let's get to it.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-1.5, +195)
Well, tonight I will take my first shot with the NHL. Normally, I do not like playing the puck line. Giving a team a goal and a half is risky and if the team you choose gets behind early, they have to dig themselves out of a pretty big hole. However, I think the Ducks provide with some value tonight, so I will take the chance. Detroit is flying cross country into Anaheim after losing in the Centennial Classic on New Years Day against Auston Matthews and the Leafs. They also will be playing tonight in the first of the a back-to-back set, as they will be in LA tomorrow night to face the Kings. One would think they may be thinking ahead to LA and also may be looking to keep a little in the tank for the game tomorrow. Yes, there are a couple of concerns on the Ducks' side. Star center, Ryan Getzlaf, has been ruled out of tonight's game with a lower-body injury. However, their American Ryan, Ryan Kesler, has proven to be their best player all year and will have no issues centering the first line and the first power play unit. Also, some may look back at their previous meeting and note that the Red Wings won 6-4 at the Joe. Despite the loss, it must be noted that Anaheim put out well-known human sieve, Jonathan Bernier, and as you can imagine, it did not end well for the Ducks. Tonight, it looks like John Gibson will man the crease. Fun fact, John Gibson was the starting goalie for the United States the last time they won the World Junior Championships. What do you know, the US are playing in the WJC semis today and look to have a good chance at winning it all this year. Sorry, not that relevant, but felt the need to give a shoutout to the US squad in Montreal. Anyway, puck line picks will not be found very often but take a chance on this one, it should hit.
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets -2
In tonight's NBA action, we head out east to Charlotte where the Russell Westbrook and the Thunder will take on Kemba Walker and the Hornets. As we can expect, the masses normally line up to take the "Human Triple-Double" Westbrook and the Thunder. Who can play them? It is pretty hard to bet against a guy who goes out there and consistently puts up ridiculous numbers. This is incredibly relevant today as the spread as dropped from it's opening line of Hornets -3.5 to Hornets -2. For you English majors out there, that is a full 1 and half point drop, which is rather significant. Now, remember yesterday, during our discussion of West Virginia/Texas Tech, we talked about reverse line movement. The line for that game continued to shrink from its opening line of West Virginia -4 all the way down to West Virginia -2, even though a majority of the bets were placed on the Mountaineers. Sharps were all over Texas Tech, and they delivered as I mentioned earlier, Texas Tech not only covered but won the game. Now, the movement in this game does not appear to be a result of reverse line movement, but rather, just the public money pushing the spread. Sharps must be split on what will happen in this game or do not have much interest. However, I do. The Hornets are significantly better home team than road team for real (11-7 home, 8-9 road real). Also, it is just a known fact the Kemba is a straight baller in the Spectrum Centre. The Thunder struggle on the road, especially when they are road dogs (3-6). Don't fall for the Russell trap and take the points that the public have gifted you with the Hornets.
NCAAB
South Carolina at Georgia -2.5
Something with college basketball and spreads at 2.5. In this matchup, Frank Martin will lead his Gamecocks into Athens to face Mark Fox and the Bulldogs. This should be a very closely contested SEC battle between two well-coached teams. Both teams are rated fairly even. South Carolina has a Ken Pom rating at 40, while Georgia is at 50 and their efficiency ratings are only two points apart, so home court will wash that out. Both teams play at fairly even tempos and do have a common opponent in their Non-Conference schedule, Clemson, who they both lost too (USC lost by 2 at home, Georgia lost by 10 at home). This should be a fairly hard-fought, close game that I think will be decided by the play of one man, Yante Maten. Maten, who is averaging 20 points and 8 boards a game, has easily been one of the most underrated players in the country thus far. His improvement since his freshman year has been phenomenal, and he can singlehandedly impact the direction of a game for the Dawgs. If he gets into early foul trouble, it could spell trouble for Georgia. However, I do not think that South Carolina has nearly enough of an inside presence to provide much issue to Maten. It also doesn't have a sharpshooter like J.J. Frazier to dish balls out to for open treys. It is worth noting that South Carolina will be getting back Sindarius Thornwell back from suspension today. The Gamecocks had lost three games during his suspension and were undefeated when Thornwell was active. However, I think it will take a game or two for him to get back his minutes and his peak performance. Go with the Bulldogs at home and let Maten carry you to victory.
Rutgers at Michigan State -13
If this game was being played at the same time last year with this spread, it would be the biggest college basketball lock of the year. However, this year things are much more complicated. As many know, the Spartans have gotten off to rough start this season. With an extremely difficult non-conference slate, the Spartans struggled to win games and played so bad, Tom Izzo apologized to his players for putting them in such a tough situation. Despite the rough stretch, things are starting to turn around in East Lansing. MSU had a huge come-behind overtime victory up at The Barn in Minneapolis that in March we may look back and say was turning point in their season. They also got a big home victory against a solid Northwestern squad and are already off to a nice 2-0 start in conference. Now, they will get an even bigger boost tonight as Miles Bridges will be returning from injury. Bridges, one of the most hyped freshmen in the country, has sort of fallen behind the wave of Josh Jackson, Markelle Fultz, and Lorenzo Ball due to his injury. However, with his return, he will look to reinsert himself back into the conversation of best underclassmen in the country. There isn't too much to say about Rutgers. They got a new coach, started off the schedule with a ridiculously easy non-conference, and somehow started the year 11-1. It was really nice, and people started to get a little excited for the Rutgers program. However, after their nice start, they started playing Power 6 teams and resumed their losing ways. I will give the new coach a little credit, the players have seemed to respond to him and are playing as a much more cohesive unit than they ever did under the incompetent Eddie Jordan. Maybe this coach can make something of this program, but now is not the time, and the Scarlet Knights will finish under .500 despite their nice start. No need for Ken Pom ratings or efficiency evaluations in this one, just take the Spartans and be happy for the friendly line.
Last night: 2-1
Overall: 2-1
We are back at it tonight after a nice 2-1 effort yesterday. Texas Tech came through and pulled off the big upset, outright, against West Virginia, and the just like we predicted, the Heat were undermanned and outperformed by the host Phoenix Suns. Unfortunately, Tennessee could not hold onto a double digit lead against Arkansas, and they would end up losing the game, let alone failing to cover. However, we move onto tonight, where we have four plays that should be nice plays (1 NHL, 1 NBA, 2 NCAAB). So, let's get to it.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Anaheim Ducks (-1.5, +195)
Well, tonight I will take my first shot with the NHL. Normally, I do not like playing the puck line. Giving a team a goal and a half is risky and if the team you choose gets behind early, they have to dig themselves out of a pretty big hole. However, I think the Ducks provide with some value tonight, so I will take the chance. Detroit is flying cross country into Anaheim after losing in the Centennial Classic on New Years Day against Auston Matthews and the Leafs. They also will be playing tonight in the first of the a back-to-back set, as they will be in LA tomorrow night to face the Kings. One would think they may be thinking ahead to LA and also may be looking to keep a little in the tank for the game tomorrow. Yes, there are a couple of concerns on the Ducks' side. Star center, Ryan Getzlaf, has been ruled out of tonight's game with a lower-body injury. However, their American Ryan, Ryan Kesler, has proven to be their best player all year and will have no issues centering the first line and the first power play unit. Also, some may look back at their previous meeting and note that the Red Wings won 6-4 at the Joe. Despite the loss, it must be noted that Anaheim put out well-known human sieve, Jonathan Bernier, and as you can imagine, it did not end well for the Ducks. Tonight, it looks like John Gibson will man the crease. Fun fact, John Gibson was the starting goalie for the United States the last time they won the World Junior Championships. What do you know, the US are playing in the WJC semis today and look to have a good chance at winning it all this year. Sorry, not that relevant, but felt the need to give a shoutout to the US squad in Montreal. Anyway, puck line picks will not be found very often but take a chance on this one, it should hit.
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder at Charlotte Hornets -2
In tonight's NBA action, we head out east to Charlotte where the Russell Westbrook and the Thunder will take on Kemba Walker and the Hornets. As we can expect, the masses normally line up to take the "Human Triple-Double" Westbrook and the Thunder. Who can play them? It is pretty hard to bet against a guy who goes out there and consistently puts up ridiculous numbers. This is incredibly relevant today as the spread as dropped from it's opening line of Hornets -3.5 to Hornets -2. For you English majors out there, that is a full 1 and half point drop, which is rather significant. Now, remember yesterday, during our discussion of West Virginia/Texas Tech, we talked about reverse line movement. The line for that game continued to shrink from its opening line of West Virginia -4 all the way down to West Virginia -2, even though a majority of the bets were placed on the Mountaineers. Sharps were all over Texas Tech, and they delivered as I mentioned earlier, Texas Tech not only covered but won the game. Now, the movement in this game does not appear to be a result of reverse line movement, but rather, just the public money pushing the spread. Sharps must be split on what will happen in this game or do not have much interest. However, I do. The Hornets are significantly better home team than road team for real (11-7 home, 8-9 road real). Also, it is just a known fact the Kemba is a straight baller in the Spectrum Centre. The Thunder struggle on the road, especially when they are road dogs (3-6). Don't fall for the Russell trap and take the points that the public have gifted you with the Hornets.
NCAAB
South Carolina at Georgia -2.5
Something with college basketball and spreads at 2.5. In this matchup, Frank Martin will lead his Gamecocks into Athens to face Mark Fox and the Bulldogs. This should be a very closely contested SEC battle between two well-coached teams. Both teams are rated fairly even. South Carolina has a Ken Pom rating at 40, while Georgia is at 50 and their efficiency ratings are only two points apart, so home court will wash that out. Both teams play at fairly even tempos and do have a common opponent in their Non-Conference schedule, Clemson, who they both lost too (USC lost by 2 at home, Georgia lost by 10 at home). This should be a fairly hard-fought, close game that I think will be decided by the play of one man, Yante Maten. Maten, who is averaging 20 points and 8 boards a game, has easily been one of the most underrated players in the country thus far. His improvement since his freshman year has been phenomenal, and he can singlehandedly impact the direction of a game for the Dawgs. If he gets into early foul trouble, it could spell trouble for Georgia. However, I do not think that South Carolina has nearly enough of an inside presence to provide much issue to Maten. It also doesn't have a sharpshooter like J.J. Frazier to dish balls out to for open treys. It is worth noting that South Carolina will be getting back Sindarius Thornwell back from suspension today. The Gamecocks had lost three games during his suspension and were undefeated when Thornwell was active. However, I think it will take a game or two for him to get back his minutes and his peak performance. Go with the Bulldogs at home and let Maten carry you to victory.
Rutgers at Michigan State -13
If this game was being played at the same time last year with this spread, it would be the biggest college basketball lock of the year. However, this year things are much more complicated. As many know, the Spartans have gotten off to rough start this season. With an extremely difficult non-conference slate, the Spartans struggled to win games and played so bad, Tom Izzo apologized to his players for putting them in such a tough situation. Despite the rough stretch, things are starting to turn around in East Lansing. MSU had a huge come-behind overtime victory up at The Barn in Minneapolis that in March we may look back and say was turning point in their season. They also got a big home victory against a solid Northwestern squad and are already off to a nice 2-0 start in conference. Now, they will get an even bigger boost tonight as Miles Bridges will be returning from injury. Bridges, one of the most hyped freshmen in the country, has sort of fallen behind the wave of Josh Jackson, Markelle Fultz, and Lorenzo Ball due to his injury. However, with his return, he will look to reinsert himself back into the conversation of best underclassmen in the country. There isn't too much to say about Rutgers. They got a new coach, started off the schedule with a ridiculously easy non-conference, and somehow started the year 11-1. It was really nice, and people started to get a little excited for the Rutgers program. However, after their nice start, they started playing Power 6 teams and resumed their losing ways. I will give the new coach a little credit, the players have seemed to respond to him and are playing as a much more cohesive unit than they ever did under the incompetent Eddie Jordan. Maybe this coach can make something of this program, but now is not the time, and the Scarlet Knights will finish under .500 despite their nice start. No need for Ken Pom ratings or efficiency evaluations in this one, just take the Spartans and be happy for the friendly line.
Last night: 2-1
Overall: 2-1
Tuesday, January 3, 2017
The Daily Three
Hello,
Every day, I will look at three matchups (preferably one NBA, one NCAAB, and one NHL) and try to find good spreads that appear to add great value and can easily cover. Picks will also include NFL, MLB, and NCAAF (if not more) when necessary. Unfortunately, there are not very appealing match ups in the NHL. All of the home teams are considerable favorites and none of those road dogs offer much value. So tonight, we look at one NBA matchup and two NCAAB matchup
NBA
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns (-2.5)
Yes, I understand the Phoenix Suns are a not a very good basketball team. But you know what else, the Miami Heat are also not very good. Miami is traveling cross-country with a very depleted roster (Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters, and Justice Winslow have already been ruled out) and very few good results lately to inspire confidence. Goran Dragic will most likely return from a three game absence, but who exactly willl he distribute the ball too? Tyler Johnson? Wayne Ellington? Luke Babbitt? Yeah, I think I will pass. It may discourage you to take the Suns playing in the second of a back-to-back after a loss to a similarly depleted Clippers squad the night before. However, before yesterday's setback, the Suns had a couple of encouraging results including a nice home win against Eastern Conference Power Toronto. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker should run the show tonight and win handedly at home against the struggling Heat.
NCAAB
Arkansas at Tennessee (-2.5)
The Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Knoxville to take on Rick Barnes and the Volunteers tonight. The Rick Barnes era has not gotten off to the best of starts for Tennessee, however I do think they should prevail tonight over Mike Anderson's Razorbacks. The first thing I like to do when evaluating match ups is look at their Ken Pom ratings (probably the most effective and accurate ratings of college basketball teams in the country). Currently, Ken Pom has Arkansas at 42, while rating Tennessee slightly lower at 62. While the numbers show a significant difference, their adjusted efficiency ratings (which the whole rating system is based on is only about four points. For comparison's sake, that is the difference between number one ranked Kentucky and number ten, undefeated Gonzaga (both Final Four contenders). Also, both teams have fairly similar adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, with both teams being more efficient offensively than defensively. Also, the Vols do have home court. Although Arkansas ranks higher, the home court advantage for Tennessee essentially washes out any advantage, so let's consider them even. Now that both teams are on even terms, there is one thing that really stands out, Strength of Schedule. Tennessee went out during the non-conference slate and challenged themselves. They played against likely Sweet 16 teams Wisconsin, Oregon, and Gonzaga. They did lose each game, but they did manage to hang close with each team and even took Oregon to overtime. Arkansas, however, failed to go out and play anyone that will impress the Selection Committee in March. I will give them credit for scheduling and winning at Texas, who in Shaka Smart's second year were expected to improve drastically. Still, the rest of the slate is unimpressive, and it shows in their Ken Pom non-conference SOS, a negative rating. Both teams' approaches to the first two months of the seasons may explain how Tennessee pulled out a tough win in their first conference game of the year at College Station against Texas A&M, while Arkansas fell at home in their first real test of the year to Florida. With this being said, expect the Volunteers to turn 40 minutes of hell into 40 minutes of leisure and come away with the two to three possession victory.
West Virginia at Texas Tech (+2.5)
Something about 2.5, right. Anyway, one of the ways Vegas tries to trick us is throw spreads like this at us. At first glance, this looks ridiculous. West Virginia is a top ten team going against decent squad that hasn't even received any top 25 votes, how does Vegas possibly think this will be a one possession game. Well, there are a few things to consider. One, there are not many things more difficult in college basketball than going on the road in-conference and getting a victory. Just ask UNC and Duke how they fared last weekend against perennial doormats Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, respectively. The students will be in full force in Lubbock and will most certainly create a chaotic environment. Second, the two teams' Ken Pom ratings are not very far off, as there is only a twenty spot difference between the two teams, although their efficiency ratings are definitely further apart than the two teams mentioned above. Lastly, we have to consider what is going on with Vegas and the other books. As noted above, the spread currently has Texas Tech receiving 2.5 points. However, Texas Tech opened up at +4 and have been only receiving 20% of the bets since it has opened. This must mean that the sharp bettors (the people that matter) are putting large money on Tech and pushing the line down. This is what is called reverse line movement. When this happens, I tend to lean with the sharps. In full honestly though, the key to this game will be if Texas Tech can control the pace of the game and break the stingy West Virginia press. West Virginia plays at a very high tempo that is ranked up at 45, while Texas Tech is quite the opposite and plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, all the way down at 327. If Texas Tech can get the game to be played that slow, Chris Beard may come away with his first big win in Lubbock.
Every day, I will look at three matchups (preferably one NBA, one NCAAB, and one NHL) and try to find good spreads that appear to add great value and can easily cover. Picks will also include NFL, MLB, and NCAAF (if not more) when necessary. Unfortunately, there are not very appealing match ups in the NHL. All of the home teams are considerable favorites and none of those road dogs offer much value. So tonight, we look at one NBA matchup and two NCAAB matchup
NBA
Miami Heat at Phoenix Suns (-2.5)
Yes, I understand the Phoenix Suns are a not a very good basketball team. But you know what else, the Miami Heat are also not very good. Miami is traveling cross-country with a very depleted roster (Hassan Whiteside, Dion Waiters, and Justice Winslow have already been ruled out) and very few good results lately to inspire confidence. Goran Dragic will most likely return from a three game absence, but who exactly willl he distribute the ball too? Tyler Johnson? Wayne Ellington? Luke Babbitt? Yeah, I think I will pass. It may discourage you to take the Suns playing in the second of a back-to-back after a loss to a similarly depleted Clippers squad the night before. However, before yesterday's setback, the Suns had a couple of encouraging results including a nice home win against Eastern Conference Power Toronto. Eric Bledsoe and Devin Booker should run the show tonight and win handedly at home against the struggling Heat.
NCAAB
Arkansas at Tennessee (-2.5)
The Arkansas Razorbacks will travel to Knoxville to take on Rick Barnes and the Volunteers tonight. The Rick Barnes era has not gotten off to the best of starts for Tennessee, however I do think they should prevail tonight over Mike Anderson's Razorbacks. The first thing I like to do when evaluating match ups is look at their Ken Pom ratings (probably the most effective and accurate ratings of college basketball teams in the country). Currently, Ken Pom has Arkansas at 42, while rating Tennessee slightly lower at 62. While the numbers show a significant difference, their adjusted efficiency ratings (which the whole rating system is based on is only about four points. For comparison's sake, that is the difference between number one ranked Kentucky and number ten, undefeated Gonzaga (both Final Four contenders). Also, both teams have fairly similar adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, with both teams being more efficient offensively than defensively. Also, the Vols do have home court. Although Arkansas ranks higher, the home court advantage for Tennessee essentially washes out any advantage, so let's consider them even. Now that both teams are on even terms, there is one thing that really stands out, Strength of Schedule. Tennessee went out during the non-conference slate and challenged themselves. They played against likely Sweet 16 teams Wisconsin, Oregon, and Gonzaga. They did lose each game, but they did manage to hang close with each team and even took Oregon to overtime. Arkansas, however, failed to go out and play anyone that will impress the Selection Committee in March. I will give them credit for scheduling and winning at Texas, who in Shaka Smart's second year were expected to improve drastically. Still, the rest of the slate is unimpressive, and it shows in their Ken Pom non-conference SOS, a negative rating. Both teams' approaches to the first two months of the seasons may explain how Tennessee pulled out a tough win in their first conference game of the year at College Station against Texas A&M, while Arkansas fell at home in their first real test of the year to Florida. With this being said, expect the Volunteers to turn 40 minutes of hell into 40 minutes of leisure and come away with the two to three possession victory.
West Virginia at Texas Tech (+2.5)
Something about 2.5, right. Anyway, one of the ways Vegas tries to trick us is throw spreads like this at us. At first glance, this looks ridiculous. West Virginia is a top ten team going against decent squad that hasn't even received any top 25 votes, how does Vegas possibly think this will be a one possession game. Well, there are a few things to consider. One, there are not many things more difficult in college basketball than going on the road in-conference and getting a victory. Just ask UNC and Duke how they fared last weekend against perennial doormats Georgia Tech and Virginia Tech, respectively. The students will be in full force in Lubbock and will most certainly create a chaotic environment. Second, the two teams' Ken Pom ratings are not very far off, as there is only a twenty spot difference between the two teams, although their efficiency ratings are definitely further apart than the two teams mentioned above. Lastly, we have to consider what is going on with Vegas and the other books. As noted above, the spread currently has Texas Tech receiving 2.5 points. However, Texas Tech opened up at +4 and have been only receiving 20% of the bets since it has opened. This must mean that the sharp bettors (the people that matter) are putting large money on Tech and pushing the line down. This is what is called reverse line movement. When this happens, I tend to lean with the sharps. In full honestly though, the key to this game will be if Texas Tech can control the pace of the game and break the stingy West Virginia press. West Virginia plays at a very high tempo that is ranked up at 45, while Texas Tech is quite the opposite and plays at one of the slowest tempos in the country, all the way down at 327. If Texas Tech can get the game to be played that slow, Chris Beard may come away with his first big win in Lubbock.
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
3 Keys to an Orioles AL East Division Crown
Well, we have hit the halfway point of the MLB season, and the Baltimore Orioles are in first place in the AL East. Although many pundits claim that the Orioles may be the least likely of the six current first place teams in baseball to hang on to their spot, the Birds are still hitting the ball at a league-best pace and still have one of the bullpens in the league. Still, if this team wants to play in October, there are five main keys to maintain their success.
1. Figure out the rotation
This key may be the obvious one, but it does not make it any less important to address. It is a serious issue when a team that averages around five runs a game can't go into each game knowing that total will be enough to win a ballgame. But that is where the Orioles are at right now. It may be a little harsh to bash the entire rotation. Chris Tillman has been pretty solid, and the Orioles tend to win when they put him out there, even if he is lacking ace quality stuff. Also, for a young gun, Kevin Gausman has looked the part, but has just had some poor luck. That being said, this team cannot be throw out Ubaldo Jiminez to the mound once every five days and expect to hold onto the division. Most teams would try to find an arm down in the farm to remedy the problem. However, this already been tried with Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson and has been proven to be fruitless. The next solution would be to get an arm from another team at the trade deadline, but the lack of depth will make this a challenge. One possible solution would be to have Dylan Bundy come into the rotation on a pitch count and hope he can hit six innings consistently. Bundy, a former #3 overall draft pick, has finally shown the promise that made him such a draft pick. If he consistently eat some innings, the bullpen should be capable of handling the last few innings. In the end, the Birds need to a new arm into this rotation in any way that they can. If they fail to do so, it might be a quiet October at Camden Yards.
2. What to do with Darren O' Day?
Darren O' Day has been an integral part of the Orioles' bullpen for the past few years. He was a huge piece of the team that made an ALCS run in 2014 and even earned a spot on the AL All-Star team last season. For his efforts, the set-up man got a nice raise this past offseason. However, O' Day, while still pitching well, has not performed up to the level he established the past two seasons and is currently sitting on the 15-day DL with a hamstring injury. When he returns from the injury, most would assume he would go right back to his usual set-up role. However, young reliever Brad Brach has taken over the role with flying colors since O' Day's injury. Brach has pitched so well, he even earned a spot on the AL All-Star team. So, the question becomes do the Birds leave Brach as the eighth inning man and place O' Day to pitch in the seventh, or do they revert back to way things had been before the injury. The positive spin on this situation would be that the Orioles will get an elite arm back into their bullpen and does not matter much where you put either of them. The way the Orioles' rotation has been doing so far this year, it would be extremely helpful to have three elite arms to cover the last three innings. However, the Birds must make sure that O' Day's return does not mess up the bullpen chemistry and does not mess with Brach's form.
3. Chris Davis
This one is the wild-card. It is hard to bash a guy that is tied for ninth in the majors in home runs with 22, however, it seems like Chris Davis hasn't been the same player this year. We all know what we get with Chris, a low contact guy that strikes out a lot, but with insane power. That being said, he does seem a bit off this year. After a monstrous 2015, Davis was given the biggest deal in Orioles' history, now he has dropped below Mark Trumbo in the batting order and is trying to regain last year's form. If Davis can show a little more consistency, this squad may be able to hold on the AL East and play far into October.
1. Figure out the rotation
This key may be the obvious one, but it does not make it any less important to address. It is a serious issue when a team that averages around five runs a game can't go into each game knowing that total will be enough to win a ballgame. But that is where the Orioles are at right now. It may be a little harsh to bash the entire rotation. Chris Tillman has been pretty solid, and the Orioles tend to win when they put him out there, even if he is lacking ace quality stuff. Also, for a young gun, Kevin Gausman has looked the part, but has just had some poor luck. That being said, this team cannot be throw out Ubaldo Jiminez to the mound once every five days and expect to hold onto the division. Most teams would try to find an arm down in the farm to remedy the problem. However, this already been tried with Mike Wright and Tyler Wilson and has been proven to be fruitless. The next solution would be to get an arm from another team at the trade deadline, but the lack of depth will make this a challenge. One possible solution would be to have Dylan Bundy come into the rotation on a pitch count and hope he can hit six innings consistently. Bundy, a former #3 overall draft pick, has finally shown the promise that made him such a draft pick. If he consistently eat some innings, the bullpen should be capable of handling the last few innings. In the end, the Birds need to a new arm into this rotation in any way that they can. If they fail to do so, it might be a quiet October at Camden Yards.
2. What to do with Darren O' Day?
Darren O' Day has been an integral part of the Orioles' bullpen for the past few years. He was a huge piece of the team that made an ALCS run in 2014 and even earned a spot on the AL All-Star team last season. For his efforts, the set-up man got a nice raise this past offseason. However, O' Day, while still pitching well, has not performed up to the level he established the past two seasons and is currently sitting on the 15-day DL with a hamstring injury. When he returns from the injury, most would assume he would go right back to his usual set-up role. However, young reliever Brad Brach has taken over the role with flying colors since O' Day's injury. Brach has pitched so well, he even earned a spot on the AL All-Star team. So, the question becomes do the Birds leave Brach as the eighth inning man and place O' Day to pitch in the seventh, or do they revert back to way things had been before the injury. The positive spin on this situation would be that the Orioles will get an elite arm back into their bullpen and does not matter much where you put either of them. The way the Orioles' rotation has been doing so far this year, it would be extremely helpful to have three elite arms to cover the last three innings. However, the Birds must make sure that O' Day's return does not mess up the bullpen chemistry and does not mess with Brach's form.
3. Chris Davis
This one is the wild-card. It is hard to bash a guy that is tied for ninth in the majors in home runs with 22, however, it seems like Chris Davis hasn't been the same player this year. We all know what we get with Chris, a low contact guy that strikes out a lot, but with insane power. That being said, he does seem a bit off this year. After a monstrous 2015, Davis was given the biggest deal in Orioles' history, now he has dropped below Mark Trumbo in the batting order and is trying to regain last year's form. If Davis can show a little more consistency, this squad may be able to hold on the AL East and play far into October.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)