Hello,
Well, we finally had a good night. The Rams and Oilers took care of business, and we were a mere few inches wide on a empty net attempt from getting a much-needed undefeated night. However, we will take 2-1 and continue to build our momentum. The NBA is looking weird tonight, so we are going back to college along with the ice. Let's do it.
NHL
Florida Panthers at San Jose Sharks -1.5, +190 (10 units wagered, 19 units won)
Jaromir Jagr turns 45 today. Think about how remarkable that is. The guy has been playing in the NHL since before I was born (1991), and yet he is still playing on the first line for a playoff contending team. Jagr is such a legend, I tend to forget the most disappointing stretch of his career, which of course happened in Washington. I remember the day he was traded to Washington for Kris Beech (biggest bust in Caps history) and a couple of other journeymen. I was at summer camp, and the resident sports news guy announced the trade by butchering the name of each player involved. Without any care for my social status for the rest of that summer, I stood up and shouted probably as loud as I ever have in my life. I have never heard the end of it, and honestly, it probably would have been worth it, if the Jagr actually performed in DC. Instead, he was sent to New York and is now known as another disappointing chapter of Capitals hockey. Anyway tonight, his young Panthers squad will head out west to take on the Sharks, who are coming off of a disappointing road trip. Despite the rough results on the east coast, the Sharks are a significantly better team at the Shark Tank where they are 18-7-1. Brent Burns is making his case for not only the Norris Trophy (best defenseman) but is also looking to become the first defenseman to win the Hart Trophy since Chris Pronger in 2000. Plus, do you think Jagr's body is going to respond well after a 6+ hour flight from South Florida? I do not think so. The Panthers will take a while to adjust to the time change and knock the cobwebs off from a long flight, and the Sharks will take advantage with a nice multi-goal victory.
NCAAB
Xavier Musketeers at Providence Friars -5 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)
Yes, at first glance, this spread is very surprising. The Musketeers are significantly higher than the Friars in the Kenpom, and they have much better wins this season. How can we possibly go with Providence? Well, the Musketeers are running out of bodies, and the bodies they are losing, happen to be their best plays. Myles Davis, who was stuck in purgatory for most of the season, was finally knocked out for the season a few weeks ago for a mix of disciplinary and personal issues. Two weeks ago, guard, Edmond Summer, suffered a season-ending injury for the second straight season. Now, news has come out that Xavier's best player Trevon Bluiett is doubtful for tonight's game with an ankle injury. Bluiett is a star and was supposed to take Xavier to the next level this season. However, the Musketeers have just been unable to live up to expectations. Despite the up and down year and Bluiett's status for tonight, the public still likes Xavier tonight as the majority of ATS bets are going with them. Still, the line continues to move in Providence's direction, and I think it is going to get all the way up to -5.5. This is a combination of the Bluiett's status and sharp money pouring in on the Friars. I am going to follow the money and make the surprising pick. The Friars will ball tonight as if Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil were still there.
Maryland Terrapins at Northwestern Wildcats -2 (10 units wagered, 9 units wagered)
I have harped on regression with the Terps in the past, and I will continue to do so until their record starts to match their computer ratings. Maryland is now at 21-4, which is a remarkable record. Despite the many wins, the Kenpom is just not impressed with the Turtles. They are currently ranked at #38, and there is not a Power 6 team with as many losses as them below them in the rankings. 15-11 Clemson and 14-11 Wake Forest are still ranked ahead of them in these rankings. Also, they rank 53rd in the nation in terms of luck (there are 351 teams in the Kenpom rankings). There is no denying that they are talented, but at some point, there luck is going to run out and their record is going to regress in a way that better equates their record with their computer rankings. Tonight, they will go against a Northwestern team that is coming off of arguably the biggest win in program history (I know it is crazy that a Big Ten school's biggest win ever could come in February). The Wildcats shocked the world on Sunday by going into the Kohl Center and beating the previously #7 ranked Wisconsin Badgers. It may have been the win that gets them into their first NCAA tournament in school history, but I think they still have little more to prove. Tonight, they get another chance to build onto their resume against this Terrapin team that the public just seems to drool over. 64% of ATS spreads are on the Turtles, yet the line is not really moving at all. Sharp money must be keeping the spread, where it is. I'm sure the sharps love the higher Kenpom rating, and the hyped-up crowd that will be showing up in Evanston tonight to support the Cats. I think the Cats will put themselves even closer to hearing their name on Selection Sunday and get a big win over a Maryland team that is bound to regress back to the mean.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 61-54-5 (+71 units)
February: 17-24-1 (-55 units)
20 unit picks: 1-0
Wednesday, February 15, 2017
Tuesday, February 14, 2017
Daily Three 2/14
Hello,
June 8, 2010: In game 3 of the NBA Finals, Ray Allen goes 0-13 from the field, including 8 missed three point attempts, as the Boston Celtics go down to the Los Angeles Lakers 91-84.
June 7, 2015: In game 2 of the NBA Finals, Stephen Curry had one of the worst shooting performances by an NBA MVP ever as he bricked 13 three point attempts in an Overtime loss to the vulnerable Cleveland Cavaliers.
These two legends are the two of the greatest shooters to ever play the game, if not the two greatest ever. After these clunkers, the two went on to make huge shots that would propel themselves to NBA Finals lore, and ultimately the title of champion (Ray Allen did it years later with the Heat, Steph did it in the same year with the Warriors). These two guys had perhaps the worst games in their careers on the brightest stage, but did not fade away into the limelight. They understood a very simple phrase, "Shooters Shoot." They stuck to the motto and shot away. And now, they are the main attractions in a "How to shoot" video.
Last night was definitely my most abysmal night since I began making these picks. None of the picks were even close, and honestly were quite embarassing. Despite I shame these picks may have brought upon me, just like Steph and Ray, and I have to continue to shoot. I will continue to push through this rough streak and will get back to the high level of performance that was seen in January. It's just, well, I am not throwing away my shot! Man, Hamilton is so culturally relevant. Anyway, we are going to be taking our shots at pucks and college baketball tonight, so let's turn things around.
NHL
Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils -1.5, +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won)
G-D bless Jeremy Smith. Tonight, he will be making his NHL debut between the pipes for the Colorado Avalanche. It has been a long time coming for Smith, as he was drafted all the way back in 2007. Smith paraded around the AHL circuit for years playing for five teams before finally getting his shot tonight. While this is one of the better stories you will hear, it doesn't mean that he will have a good night against the Devils. The Avalanche have been abysmal all season. They have the league's worst goal differential and have lost 21 of their last 25 games. They are also playing their third game in four nights, all of them on in the New York metropolitan area, which is far away from home. If anything, the Avs will probably tighten it up a bit to protect their inexperienced keeper, so I am not expecting the Avs to be potent on offense (not like they would be if they tried). Taylor Hall and Co. should give Smith a icy welcome to the NHL, and the Devils should pound the Avs just like the rest of the league has done all season.
Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers -1.5, + 140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Wait, didn't we pick against the Coyotes last night, and they ended winning 5-0? Yes, yes we did. Haven't the Coyotes won 3 of 4 including wins over last year's Stanley Cup Championship participants. This is also true. So, why in the world would we go against them right now? Actually, it is pretty simple. The Coyotes are bound to regress back to normal tonight. As we highlighted last night, they have the second worst goal differential in the league, and the worst road record in the league. In yesterday's game, the Flames completely outplayed the Coyotes in the first period. The Flames outshot them by ten shots, but Mike Smith was just a brick wall. The 'Yotes sneaked a goal in there and went into the second period up a goal. In the second period, the third and fourth lines for Arizona turned into the top lines of Washington and Pittsburgh and produced at ridiculous rate that they surely cannot replicate tonight. Tonight, the Coyotes will be playing the second of a back-to-back with their backup goalie in freezing Alberta. Connor McDavid and crew are very aware of last night's result and will definitely be full throttle tonight in their brand new building. Expect a tired Coyotes team to regress back to their normal selves, as Edmonton is able to take advantage of a nice opportunity.
NCAAB
Colorado State Rams Pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Wyoming Cowboys
This is Colorado State's coach, Larry Eustachy. Coach Eustachy was originally the coach at Iowa State, where he led the Cyclones to one of their best seasons in school history (of course they were upset by #15 Hampton that season, but still, a wonderful regular season). He was a successful head coach and the most important man in Ames, Iowa. Everything seemed to be going his way, and it looked like he would have a successful career at the Big 12 school. Then, controversy struck. One night after a game at the University of Missouri, pictures were taken of Eutaschy at a Fraernity Party. The pictures showed him kissing college-aged women and drinking beers with under-aged students. Iowa State's administration was rocked by Eustachy's actions and essentially forced him to resign. Although his character is, at best, questionable, one thing still rings true, he is a good basketball coach. Tonight he brings his squad into Laramie to take on the Cowboys, in a matchup where his team is clearly better. The Rams currently ranked in the top 100 at #98, while the Cowboys fall outside of that group at #149. The Rams are significantly much more efficient on both sides of the ball with way higher rankings in both categories than the Cowboys. Take the Rams here, as they continue to climb the Mountain West standings.
Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 59-53-5 (+57 Units)
February: 15-23-1 (-69 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0
June 8, 2010: In game 3 of the NBA Finals, Ray Allen goes 0-13 from the field, including 8 missed three point attempts, as the Boston Celtics go down to the Los Angeles Lakers 91-84.
June 7, 2015: In game 2 of the NBA Finals, Stephen Curry had one of the worst shooting performances by an NBA MVP ever as he bricked 13 three point attempts in an Overtime loss to the vulnerable Cleveland Cavaliers.
These two legends are the two of the greatest shooters to ever play the game, if not the two greatest ever. After these clunkers, the two went on to make huge shots that would propel themselves to NBA Finals lore, and ultimately the title of champion (Ray Allen did it years later with the Heat, Steph did it in the same year with the Warriors). These two guys had perhaps the worst games in their careers on the brightest stage, but did not fade away into the limelight. They understood a very simple phrase, "Shooters Shoot." They stuck to the motto and shot away. And now, they are the main attractions in a "How to shoot" video.
Last night was definitely my most abysmal night since I began making these picks. None of the picks were even close, and honestly were quite embarassing. Despite I shame these picks may have brought upon me, just like Steph and Ray, and I have to continue to shoot. I will continue to push through this rough streak and will get back to the high level of performance that was seen in January. It's just, well, I am not throwing away my shot! Man, Hamilton is so culturally relevant. Anyway, we are going to be taking our shots at pucks and college baketball tonight, so let's turn things around.
NHL
Colorado Avalanche at New Jersey Devils -1.5, +150 (10 units wagered, 15 units won)
G-D bless Jeremy Smith. Tonight, he will be making his NHL debut between the pipes for the Colorado Avalanche. It has been a long time coming for Smith, as he was drafted all the way back in 2007. Smith paraded around the AHL circuit for years playing for five teams before finally getting his shot tonight. While this is one of the better stories you will hear, it doesn't mean that he will have a good night against the Devils. The Avalanche have been abysmal all season. They have the league's worst goal differential and have lost 21 of their last 25 games. They are also playing their third game in four nights, all of them on in the New York metropolitan area, which is far away from home. If anything, the Avs will probably tighten it up a bit to protect their inexperienced keeper, so I am not expecting the Avs to be potent on offense (not like they would be if they tried). Taylor Hall and Co. should give Smith a icy welcome to the NHL, and the Devils should pound the Avs just like the rest of the league has done all season.
Arizona Coyotes at Edmonton Oilers -1.5, + 140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
Wait, didn't we pick against the Coyotes last night, and they ended winning 5-0? Yes, yes we did. Haven't the Coyotes won 3 of 4 including wins over last year's Stanley Cup Championship participants. This is also true. So, why in the world would we go against them right now? Actually, it is pretty simple. The Coyotes are bound to regress back to normal tonight. As we highlighted last night, they have the second worst goal differential in the league, and the worst road record in the league. In yesterday's game, the Flames completely outplayed the Coyotes in the first period. The Flames outshot them by ten shots, but Mike Smith was just a brick wall. The 'Yotes sneaked a goal in there and went into the second period up a goal. In the second period, the third and fourth lines for Arizona turned into the top lines of Washington and Pittsburgh and produced at ridiculous rate that they surely cannot replicate tonight. Tonight, the Coyotes will be playing the second of a back-to-back with their backup goalie in freezing Alberta. Connor McDavid and crew are very aware of last night's result and will definitely be full throttle tonight in their brand new building. Expect a tired Coyotes team to regress back to their normal selves, as Edmonton is able to take advantage of a nice opportunity.
NCAAB
Colorado State Rams Pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Wyoming Cowboys
This is Colorado State's coach, Larry Eustachy. Coach Eustachy was originally the coach at Iowa State, where he led the Cyclones to one of their best seasons in school history (of course they were upset by #15 Hampton that season, but still, a wonderful regular season). He was a successful head coach and the most important man in Ames, Iowa. Everything seemed to be going his way, and it looked like he would have a successful career at the Big 12 school. Then, controversy struck. One night after a game at the University of Missouri, pictures were taken of Eutaschy at a Fraernity Party. The pictures showed him kissing college-aged women and drinking beers with under-aged students. Iowa State's administration was rocked by Eustachy's actions and essentially forced him to resign. Although his character is, at best, questionable, one thing still rings true, he is a good basketball coach. Tonight he brings his squad into Laramie to take on the Cowboys, in a matchup where his team is clearly better. The Rams currently ranked in the top 100 at #98, while the Cowboys fall outside of that group at #149. The Rams are significantly much more efficient on both sides of the ball with way higher rankings in both categories than the Cowboys. Take the Rams here, as they continue to climb the Mountain West standings.
Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 59-53-5 (+57 Units)
February: 15-23-1 (-69 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0
Monday, February 13, 2017
Daily Three 2/13
Hello,
Sorry for the lull over the weekend. An early flight along with some other activities made it tricky to make and write up effective picks. It is unacceptable on my part, and I will do my best to reduce this in the future. Tonight, we are back with picks from all across the sporting spectrum. So, let's do it.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
The Flames are literally on fire. They have won 4 of their past 5 games, including nice wins against the Penguins and the Wild. The Flames have also already beaten the Coyotes four times this season, including two wins by multiple goals. The 'Yotes are a league worst 6-17-1 on the road and currently have the second worst goal differential in the league at -45. All signs point to a big victory for Calgary, so I am going to jump on it and get some value to boot.
NBA
Los Angles Clippers at Utah Jazz -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
In this battle between two hated NBA nicknames, I am once again going against the public. Currently, 70% of ATS bets are on the Clippers. I can understand why the public would jump on this spread. Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers are a very popular team. They still have high-flyers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan plus a championship coach in Doc Rivers. Any time the public can get this many points with LA, they are probably going to take it. However, the sharps side with me on this one. Despite the popularity following LA, the spread has actually moved up a point from -7 Jazz to -8 Jazz. There are a few things to consider when trying to figure out how the sharps pushed this line. First, the Jazz are a very good home team, sporting a 19-10 record in Salt Lake City. The Clippers aren't terrible on the road at 16-13 but playing in the high altitude definitely has an effect on players that do not normally play in those conditions. Second, the Jazz actually have a better record than the Clippers. Yes, it is only a half game difference, but I guarentee if you asked the casual NBA fan, which of these two teams is higher up in the standings, you would most likely hear, Clippers. Lastly and I think most importantly, the Jazz probably have the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, Playing in the mountains, many casual fans may not know the "Flying Frenchman," but he currently leads the league in blocks with 2.5 a game. LA's main source of offense comes from attacking the paint with Blake and DeAndre. Tonight, they are going to have a difficult time scoring inside with Gobert standing by ready to block everything in sight. I think Big Rudy will be the big difference tonight and will ultimately lead the Jazz to cover.
NCAAB
Baylor Bears -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
We tried this with Kansas on Saturday, and it didn't work. Kansas was covering their -4.5 spread for most of the contest, and then ultimately faltered down the stretch. They did end up winning the game on the last possession but failed to cover the spread. Why would I go back down this path after coming up unsuccessful on Saturday? Well, Baylor is actually a more efficient team than Kansas according to the Kenpom. Baylor is ranked #7, while Kansas was ranked #9. Second, Baylor presents a much tougher challenge defensively than Kansas did. Baylor is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency compared to Kansas, who ranks pretty low for a top ten team at #41. Most importantly though, we are giving up less points than we did on Saturday. Sure, a possession really doesn't seem like a huge difference, but in a close game that could come down to the final play, 2 points really does matter. Baylor should continue to keep pace with Kansas in the Big 12 race and get a big W in Lubbock tonight.
Saturday: 2-4
Overall: 59-50-5 (+87 Units)
February: 15-20-1 (-39 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0
Sorry for the lull over the weekend. An early flight along with some other activities made it tricky to make and write up effective picks. It is unacceptable on my part, and I will do my best to reduce this in the future. Tonight, we are back with picks from all across the sporting spectrum. So, let's do it.
NHL
Arizona Coyotes at Calgary Flames -1.5, +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won)
The Flames are literally on fire. They have won 4 of their past 5 games, including nice wins against the Penguins and the Wild. The Flames have also already beaten the Coyotes four times this season, including two wins by multiple goals. The 'Yotes are a league worst 6-17-1 on the road and currently have the second worst goal differential in the league at -45. All signs point to a big victory for Calgary, so I am going to jump on it and get some value to boot.
NBA
Los Angles Clippers at Utah Jazz -8 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
In this battle between two hated NBA nicknames, I am once again going against the public. Currently, 70% of ATS bets are on the Clippers. I can understand why the public would jump on this spread. Even without Chris Paul, the Clippers are a very popular team. They still have high-flyers Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan plus a championship coach in Doc Rivers. Any time the public can get this many points with LA, they are probably going to take it. However, the sharps side with me on this one. Despite the popularity following LA, the spread has actually moved up a point from -7 Jazz to -8 Jazz. There are a few things to consider when trying to figure out how the sharps pushed this line. First, the Jazz are a very good home team, sporting a 19-10 record in Salt Lake City. The Clippers aren't terrible on the road at 16-13 but playing in the high altitude definitely has an effect on players that do not normally play in those conditions. Second, the Jazz actually have a better record than the Clippers. Yes, it is only a half game difference, but I guarentee if you asked the casual NBA fan, which of these two teams is higher up in the standings, you would most likely hear, Clippers. Lastly and I think most importantly, the Jazz probably have the best rim protector in the league, Rudy Gobert, Playing in the mountains, many casual fans may not know the "Flying Frenchman," but he currently leads the league in blocks with 2.5 a game. LA's main source of offense comes from attacking the paint with Blake and DeAndre. Tonight, they are going to have a difficult time scoring inside with Gobert standing by ready to block everything in sight. I think Big Rudy will be the big difference tonight and will ultimately lead the Jazz to cover.
NCAAB
Baylor Bears -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
We tried this with Kansas on Saturday, and it didn't work. Kansas was covering their -4.5 spread for most of the contest, and then ultimately faltered down the stretch. They did end up winning the game on the last possession but failed to cover the spread. Why would I go back down this path after coming up unsuccessful on Saturday? Well, Baylor is actually a more efficient team than Kansas according to the Kenpom. Baylor is ranked #7, while Kansas was ranked #9. Second, Baylor presents a much tougher challenge defensively than Kansas did. Baylor is ranked sixth in defensive efficiency compared to Kansas, who ranks pretty low for a top ten team at #41. Most importantly though, we are giving up less points than we did on Saturday. Sure, a possession really doesn't seem like a huge difference, but in a close game that could come down to the final play, 2 points really does matter. Baylor should continue to keep pace with Kansas in the Big 12 race and get a big W in Lubbock tonight.
Saturday: 2-4
Overall: 59-50-5 (+87 Units)
February: 15-20-1 (-39 Units)
20 unit picks: 1-0
Saturday, February 11, 2017
Daily Three (Times Two) 2/11
Hello,
We hit the big one last night. We rocked Vegas thanks to Ivy League efforts of the Penn Quakers. We lost the other two, but we should still be proud of our college basketball pick. It is a college basketball Saturday, so I am giving you six picks!!!! No write-ups, just lovely, luscious picks. Here they are.
NCAAB
Seton Hall Pirates -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at St. John's Red Storm
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Kansas Jayhawks -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins
Butler Bulldogs -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Providence Friars
Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 57- 46-5 (+109 Units)
February: 13-16-1 (-17 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0
We hit the big one last night. We rocked Vegas thanks to Ivy League efforts of the Penn Quakers. We lost the other two, but we should still be proud of our college basketball pick. It is a college basketball Saturday, so I am giving you six picks!!!! No write-ups, just lovely, luscious picks. Here they are.
NCAAB
Seton Hall Pirates -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at St. John's Red Storm
Syracuse Orange at Pittsburgh Panthers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Kansas Jayhawks -4.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Texas Tech Red Raiders
Ohio State Buckeyes +7.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins
Butler Bulldogs -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Providence Friars
Florida State Seminoles at Notre Dame Fighting Irish pick em' (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 57- 46-5 (+109 Units)
February: 13-16-1 (-17 Units)
20 Unit picks: 1-0
Friday, February 10, 2017
Daily Three 2/10
Hello,
Another rough 1-2 last night. The BYU game absolutely stunned me. Pepperdine really took advantage of the extra possessions and just scored at will. That was definitely their best game all season and will be remembered in the archives as the best game they played in the 2016-2017 season. Obviously, February has been much tougher on us than last month. However, I have the pick tonight that is going to turn the month around. We are hitting the ice and the hardwood on this wonderful Friday night.
NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild -1.5, +180 (10 units wagered, 18 units won)
The Caps did it for us again last night, so we are going to stick to the theme of picking division leaders at home. The Wild are rolling right now and are getting production from all four lines. Coach, Bruce Boudreau, makes a habit of finding early success with new teams. If the Wild keep this pace, this will be third time that Boudreau has lead a team to a division title in his first full season with his new squad (he previously did it with the Capitals and Ducks). Also, the Wild have been dominant in St. Paul and even more so against the Atlantic Division (yes, the Lightning are in the Atlantic). The Wild are 17-6-1 at home and 9-1-0 against the Atlantic, which are really good indicators for tonight's matchup. The Lightning have been feeling the effects of two long playoff runs all season and will continue to be without key players tonight. Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan are obviously are already not playing tonight, and now, Tampa Bay beat reporters are tweeting that Tyler Johnson is probably going to be scratch tonight as well. I am going to go with the totally healthy Wild over the banged up Lightning and try to get some much needed value.
NBA
Chicago Bulls -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Phoenix Suns
Living in Chicago, I constantly listen to Bulls' fans talk about how inept Gar Foreman and John Paxton are and how they wish they could go back to the days of Jordan and Pippen. It is worth noting that no city lives on the back of nostalgia more than the great city of Chicago, but they do seem to have a point the current state of the Bulls. They have a coach that likes to shoot threes or get baskets around the rim, yet they spent this offseason signing D-Wade, who has made his living as a great mid-range shooter, and Rajon Rondo, who likes to play in the half-court and oh yeah, cannot shoot. Yes, it does seem like the the two men in charge to not have good grasp on where this team should be headed, but it could be worse. The Bulls could have Ryan McDonough in charge. Who is Ryan McDonough? He is currently the man in charge of the dumpster fire that is the Phoenix Suns. What is his track record? Here are his first round picks: Alex Lin, Nemanja Nedovic, T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, Georgis Papagiannis, and Skal Labissiere (worth noting he traded the last two for current Sun forward, Marquese Chriss). Of this group, Booker and Chriss are the only two players that seem to have any potential to be consistent starters in the NBA, and Chriss might be a stretch. He created a situation where Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Isaiah Thomas were all fighting for time in the same backcourt. He decided the odd man out should be Thomas. That really worked out well for McDonough. Along with Thomas, he has also traded the Morris brothers, Marcin Gortat, and Goran Dragic, who have all become productive starters in their new locations. He also ran out John Hornacek, who was the only person that was able to make anything of McDonough's mess. It is amazing that McDonough is still running the organization, and things probably will not change for the Suns until he leaves. Anyway, Jimmy Butler looks like he will be back tonight in a pseudo-home game for the Bulls (Chicagoans move to Phoenix when they get old and buy season tickets just so they can see the Bulls the one time they play in Phoenix every year). I'm going with the Bulls tonight in the battle of poorly-run organizations.
NCAAB
Columbia Lions at Pennsylvania Quakers -3.5 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)
As you can tell, the units that I am wagering in this game are higher than usual. I am not going to do this very often, but I feel the need to address something very important with this pick. I think that raising the stakes can help do that. In my stats at the end of each blog post, I will keep track of the record of each pick I make that involves over 10 units. In regards to the game at hand, Vegas is trying to lure you into make a sucker's bet. The first thing that you will notice when you look at both teams is their records. Columbia is 10-9 overall and 4-2 in conference, while Penn is 7-12 overall and 0-6 in conference. At first glance, the Lions look like the obvious pick. They have a winning record, overall, but more importantly to the naked eye, they have a very strong conference record, while Penn cannot even claim they have won an Ivy League game this year. Vegas wants you to look at the records and jump on Columbia. So far, the pubic has taken the bait. Thus far, 77% of bettors are taking the points with the Lions. That number is staggering and normally does not apply to road dogs in an Ivy League matchup. So, what information is the public missing and what does Vegas not want you to know? Well first, Penn is ranked significantly higher in the Kenpom rankings. Penn is a top-200 team at #188, while Columbia is ranked down at #222. I am sure you are wondering, if Columbia has such a significantly better record than how can they be ranked so much lower than Penn. Well, Penn went out and challenged themselves in the non-coference slate, and their Ivy League schedule thus far has been much more challenging. Penn currently has an SOS that ranks at #105, while Columbia is an incredible 204 slots below them at #309. Penn got dealt an unlucky hand as 4 of their first 6 conference games were against the top 3 teams in the conference, including Princeton twice. Columbia has been beating up on cellar-dwellars in conference, which has really inflated their conference record to this point. The last thing I will mention, which ultimately could be the difference is the matchups on both sides of the floor. Penn's offense and Columbia's defense are both rather abysmal, and they rank nearly the same in terms of efficiency (Penn is 232 in offense, Columbia 230). However, when you change sides, Columbia's offense remains inefficient at #211, but Penn's defense rises to respectable at #145. Penn's defense is the only quality that any of these teams can tout about, and it should make a difference in tonight's game. I expect Penn to be able to slow down the pace of the game and make Colombia play their half-court offense, which they struggle in, as they try to play up-tempo as much as possible (top 90 in tempo in the country). Also, we got to give a little bit of an edge to Penn, because they get to call the Palestra their home building. It is one of the more underrated buildings in the country and is really a great setting for the Big 5 in Philly. So, let's rock the Palestra hard tonight Penn and rock Vegas even harder.
Edit: Line just moved to -4 in this game. Very good news for those that got it in at -3.5, and even if you take it now. The sharp money has moved the line. I am even more excited about this pick than I was before.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 56-44-5 (+111 units)
February: 12-14-1 (-15 units)
Another rough 1-2 last night. The BYU game absolutely stunned me. Pepperdine really took advantage of the extra possessions and just scored at will. That was definitely their best game all season and will be remembered in the archives as the best game they played in the 2016-2017 season. Obviously, February has been much tougher on us than last month. However, I have the pick tonight that is going to turn the month around. We are hitting the ice and the hardwood on this wonderful Friday night.
NHL
Tampa Bay Lightning at Minnesota Wild -1.5, +180 (10 units wagered, 18 units won)
The Caps did it for us again last night, so we are going to stick to the theme of picking division leaders at home. The Wild are rolling right now and are getting production from all four lines. Coach, Bruce Boudreau, makes a habit of finding early success with new teams. If the Wild keep this pace, this will be third time that Boudreau has lead a team to a division title in his first full season with his new squad (he previously did it with the Capitals and Ducks). Also, the Wild have been dominant in St. Paul and even more so against the Atlantic Division (yes, the Lightning are in the Atlantic). The Wild are 17-6-1 at home and 9-1-0 against the Atlantic, which are really good indicators for tonight's matchup. The Lightning have been feeling the effects of two long playoff runs all season and will continue to be without key players tonight. Steven Stamkos and Ryan Callahan are obviously are already not playing tonight, and now, Tampa Bay beat reporters are tweeting that Tyler Johnson is probably going to be scratch tonight as well. I am going to go with the totally healthy Wild over the banged up Lightning and try to get some much needed value.
NBA
Chicago Bulls -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Phoenix Suns
Living in Chicago, I constantly listen to Bulls' fans talk about how inept Gar Foreman and John Paxton are and how they wish they could go back to the days of Jordan and Pippen. It is worth noting that no city lives on the back of nostalgia more than the great city of Chicago, but they do seem to have a point the current state of the Bulls. They have a coach that likes to shoot threes or get baskets around the rim, yet they spent this offseason signing D-Wade, who has made his living as a great mid-range shooter, and Rajon Rondo, who likes to play in the half-court and oh yeah, cannot shoot. Yes, it does seem like the the two men in charge to not have good grasp on where this team should be headed, but it could be worse. The Bulls could have Ryan McDonough in charge. Who is Ryan McDonough? He is currently the man in charge of the dumpster fire that is the Phoenix Suns. What is his track record? Here are his first round picks: Alex Lin, Nemanja Nedovic, T.J. Warren, Tyler Ennis, Bogdan Bogdanovic, Devin Booker, Dragan Bender, Georgis Papagiannis, and Skal Labissiere (worth noting he traded the last two for current Sun forward, Marquese Chriss). Of this group, Booker and Chriss are the only two players that seem to have any potential to be consistent starters in the NBA, and Chriss might be a stretch. He created a situation where Eric Bledsoe, Brandon Knight, and Isaiah Thomas were all fighting for time in the same backcourt. He decided the odd man out should be Thomas. That really worked out well for McDonough. Along with Thomas, he has also traded the Morris brothers, Marcin Gortat, and Goran Dragic, who have all become productive starters in their new locations. He also ran out John Hornacek, who was the only person that was able to make anything of McDonough's mess. It is amazing that McDonough is still running the organization, and things probably will not change for the Suns until he leaves. Anyway, Jimmy Butler looks like he will be back tonight in a pseudo-home game for the Bulls (Chicagoans move to Phoenix when they get old and buy season tickets just so they can see the Bulls the one time they play in Phoenix every year). I'm going with the Bulls tonight in the battle of poorly-run organizations.
NCAAB
Columbia Lions at Pennsylvania Quakers -3.5 (20 units wagered, 18 units won)
As you can tell, the units that I am wagering in this game are higher than usual. I am not going to do this very often, but I feel the need to address something very important with this pick. I think that raising the stakes can help do that. In my stats at the end of each blog post, I will keep track of the record of each pick I make that involves over 10 units. In regards to the game at hand, Vegas is trying to lure you into make a sucker's bet. The first thing that you will notice when you look at both teams is their records. Columbia is 10-9 overall and 4-2 in conference, while Penn is 7-12 overall and 0-6 in conference. At first glance, the Lions look like the obvious pick. They have a winning record, overall, but more importantly to the naked eye, they have a very strong conference record, while Penn cannot even claim they have won an Ivy League game this year. Vegas wants you to look at the records and jump on Columbia. So far, the pubic has taken the bait. Thus far, 77% of bettors are taking the points with the Lions. That number is staggering and normally does not apply to road dogs in an Ivy League matchup. So, what information is the public missing and what does Vegas not want you to know? Well first, Penn is ranked significantly higher in the Kenpom rankings. Penn is a top-200 team at #188, while Columbia is ranked down at #222. I am sure you are wondering, if Columbia has such a significantly better record than how can they be ranked so much lower than Penn. Well, Penn went out and challenged themselves in the non-coference slate, and their Ivy League schedule thus far has been much more challenging. Penn currently has an SOS that ranks at #105, while Columbia is an incredible 204 slots below them at #309. Penn got dealt an unlucky hand as 4 of their first 6 conference games were against the top 3 teams in the conference, including Princeton twice. Columbia has been beating up on cellar-dwellars in conference, which has really inflated their conference record to this point. The last thing I will mention, which ultimately could be the difference is the matchups on both sides of the floor. Penn's offense and Columbia's defense are both rather abysmal, and they rank nearly the same in terms of efficiency (Penn is 232 in offense, Columbia 230). However, when you change sides, Columbia's offense remains inefficient at #211, but Penn's defense rises to respectable at #145. Penn's defense is the only quality that any of these teams can tout about, and it should make a difference in tonight's game. I expect Penn to be able to slow down the pace of the game and make Colombia play their half-court offense, which they struggle in, as they try to play up-tempo as much as possible (top 90 in tempo in the country). Also, we got to give a little bit of an edge to Penn, because they get to call the Palestra their home building. It is one of the more underrated buildings in the country and is really a great setting for the Big 5 in Philly. So, let's rock the Palestra hard tonight Penn and rock Vegas even harder.
Edit: Line just moved to -4 in this game. Very good news for those that got it in at -3.5, and even if you take it now. The sharp money has moved the line. I am even more excited about this pick than I was before.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 56-44-5 (+111 units)
February: 12-14-1 (-15 units)
Thursday, February 9, 2017
Daily Three 2/9
Hello,
A rough 1-2 slate last night. The Nevada Wolfpack are the real deal. They should definitely be on your radar when you making your bracket next month. I guess the public ended up being right jumping on Baylor and Denver, but we will just call that a case of fool's gold. Tonight, we going to hit the ice and the hardwood pretty hard. Very excited with our options, so let's get to it.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals -1.5, +117 (10 units wagered, 11.7 units won)
You know how I feel about this Caps team. We are just going to keep rolling with them on home ice until we are proven otherwise. If you want an unbiased view on this game, I will pass it on to fellow blogger, Brandon. He has a good feel for this one, as well (However, they traditionally lose before the Conference Finals, man).
NCCAB
Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Lots of eyes are going to be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium as UNC and Duke renew their heated rivalry once again. However, my eyes will be glued in on another classic building on the west coast known as Pauley Pavilion, as the Oregon Ducks and UCLA Bruins battle during this week's segment of Pac 12 after dark. I have been fortunate enough to go to Pauley three times in my life, twice before the renovation and once after, and it is definitely one of the more historical sports arenas you will ever step foot in. All of the national title banners are hanging from the rafters, the great players that have stepped on that court like Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and of course the greatest coach possibly in the history of American sports, John Wooden, who patrolled the Bruins for ten national titles. It is a place with such a great legacy, and I get chills every time I have ever walked into that concourse. I cannot imagine what it will be like for the freshmen and other new-comer Ducks that will take their first steps on Nell and John Wooden Court. In terms of the actual game, this is going to be a battle of the tempos. The Ducks play at a rather slow pace, only generating 66.5 possessions a game. They like to use the shot clock and make sure that they go through their entire offensive set before getting a shot off. The Bruins are the complete opposite and like getting shots off early and often. UCLA is averaging around 74.5 possessions a game, which ranks as the tenth highest pace in the country. The biggest key for the Ducks on offense will be to make sure, they are getting efficient shot attempts and making sure the Bruins cannot get into transition. If they take poor shots and allow Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf to get easy boards, the Bruins will be off and running. Those two big men know where Lonzo Ball is at all times, and he is pretty much unstoppable if you give him open space. The biggest key for the Bruins will be to make the Ducks uncomfortable offensively and force quick, inefficient shot selection. If UCLA can jump out to an early lead, it might force the young Ducks to feel as if they need to play fast to keep up. If UCLA can get them to fall for this trap, this could be a cakewalk for the Bruins. Earlier this year, the Ducks beat the Bruins 89-87 on a crazy, buzzer-beating three by Oregon star, Dillion Brooks. UCLA had that game under control and were able to get Oregon to play way faster than they wanted to be playing. Tonight in Pauley, the home crowd will be roaring (no pun intended) and essentially helping push the pace of play. I think home court advantage is going to be a gigantic factor, as young college players normally get suckered into playing the home team's style of play. I'm going with the Pauley faithful in what should be a fun, high scoring affair in Westwood.
BYU Cougars -8.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Pepperdine Waves
Bang bang. Bang bang. Bang bang. We got a late night hammer. Is Vegas really going to give us another gift concerning the Pepperdine Waves? The Cougars are currently ranked #73 in the Kenpom, while the Waves finally broke the top 300, Woooooo!!!!!! They are now #296. That is a remarkable 223 spot difference in the poll, which is a greater differential than the Waves had with the Dons last week in the game that we won. The two teams played earlier this year in Provo and the Cougars won 99-70. I mean, the Cougars should just wipe the floor with this Waves team who has struggled to stop anyone all year. They currently rank #311 in defensive efficiency. The Cougars offense isn't incredibly efficient offensively at #114, but they are the fourth fastest team in the country, averaging 76.7 possessions a game. If they just hit a two pointer on half of their possessions (76 possessions to be realistic about the actual amount of possessions you can have in a game), they would drop 76 points (yes sorry, that is obvious math). However, this team jacks up threes, averaging around 19 three pointers attempted a game. The Cougars are going to drop at least a Benjamin tonight, as we get more easy money off of Pepperdine. Also, don't feel too bad for the Waves, they can go hang out on the beach at Malibu after their loss.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 55-42-5 (+119.3 units)
February: 11-12-1 (-6.7 units)
A rough 1-2 slate last night. The Nevada Wolfpack are the real deal. They should definitely be on your radar when you making your bracket next month. I guess the public ended up being right jumping on Baylor and Denver, but we will just call that a case of fool's gold. Tonight, we going to hit the ice and the hardwood pretty hard. Very excited with our options, so let's get to it.
NHL
Detroit Red Wings at Washington Capitals -1.5, +117 (10 units wagered, 11.7 units won)
You know how I feel about this Caps team. We are just going to keep rolling with them on home ice until we are proven otherwise. If you want an unbiased view on this game, I will pass it on to fellow blogger, Brandon. He has a good feel for this one, as well (However, they traditionally lose before the Conference Finals, man).
NCCAB
Oregon Ducks at UCLA Bruins -4 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Lots of eyes are going to be focused on Cameron Indoor Stadium as UNC and Duke renew their heated rivalry once again. However, my eyes will be glued in on another classic building on the west coast known as Pauley Pavilion, as the Oregon Ducks and UCLA Bruins battle during this week's segment of Pac 12 after dark. I have been fortunate enough to go to Pauley three times in my life, twice before the renovation and once after, and it is definitely one of the more historical sports arenas you will ever step foot in. All of the national title banners are hanging from the rafters, the great players that have stepped on that court like Lew Alcindor, Bill Walton, Kevin Love, Russell Westbrook, and of course the greatest coach possibly in the history of American sports, John Wooden, who patrolled the Bruins for ten national titles. It is a place with such a great legacy, and I get chills every time I have ever walked into that concourse. I cannot imagine what it will be like for the freshmen and other new-comer Ducks that will take their first steps on Nell and John Wooden Court. In terms of the actual game, this is going to be a battle of the tempos. The Ducks play at a rather slow pace, only generating 66.5 possessions a game. They like to use the shot clock and make sure that they go through their entire offensive set before getting a shot off. The Bruins are the complete opposite and like getting shots off early and often. UCLA is averaging around 74.5 possessions a game, which ranks as the tenth highest pace in the country. The biggest key for the Ducks on offense will be to make sure, they are getting efficient shot attempts and making sure the Bruins cannot get into transition. If they take poor shots and allow Thomas Welsh and TJ Leaf to get easy boards, the Bruins will be off and running. Those two big men know where Lonzo Ball is at all times, and he is pretty much unstoppable if you give him open space. The biggest key for the Bruins will be to make the Ducks uncomfortable offensively and force quick, inefficient shot selection. If UCLA can jump out to an early lead, it might force the young Ducks to feel as if they need to play fast to keep up. If UCLA can get them to fall for this trap, this could be a cakewalk for the Bruins. Earlier this year, the Ducks beat the Bruins 89-87 on a crazy, buzzer-beating three by Oregon star, Dillion Brooks. UCLA had that game under control and were able to get Oregon to play way faster than they wanted to be playing. Tonight in Pauley, the home crowd will be roaring (no pun intended) and essentially helping push the pace of play. I think home court advantage is going to be a gigantic factor, as young college players normally get suckered into playing the home team's style of play. I'm going with the Pauley faithful in what should be a fun, high scoring affair in Westwood.
BYU Cougars -8.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Pepperdine Waves
Bang bang. Bang bang. Bang bang. We got a late night hammer. Is Vegas really going to give us another gift concerning the Pepperdine Waves? The Cougars are currently ranked #73 in the Kenpom, while the Waves finally broke the top 300, Woooooo!!!!!! They are now #296. That is a remarkable 223 spot difference in the poll, which is a greater differential than the Waves had with the Dons last week in the game that we won. The two teams played earlier this year in Provo and the Cougars won 99-70. I mean, the Cougars should just wipe the floor with this Waves team who has struggled to stop anyone all year. They currently rank #311 in defensive efficiency. The Cougars offense isn't incredibly efficient offensively at #114, but they are the fourth fastest team in the country, averaging 76.7 possessions a game. If they just hit a two pointer on half of their possessions (76 possessions to be realistic about the actual amount of possessions you can have in a game), they would drop 76 points (yes sorry, that is obvious math). However, this team jacks up threes, averaging around 19 three pointers attempted a game. The Cougars are going to drop at least a Benjamin tonight, as we get more easy money off of Pepperdine. Also, don't feel too bad for the Waves, they can go hang out on the beach at Malibu after their loss.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 55-42-5 (+119.3 units)
February: 11-12-1 (-6.7 units)
Wednesday, February 8, 2017
Daily Three 2/8
Hello,
2-1 last night, but a very positive night in terms of units as we get back into positive units for the month thanks to the Washington Capitals, who blew out Carolina last night. We lucked out with an empty netter in the Wild-Jets game (if you want to call it lucking out, there were five goals scored in the first 30 minutes, just one in the last 30 minutes). Also something is clearly wrong with the Wildcats. It seemed last night as if the pressure of making the Big Dance was getting to them. Their next two games will pit them against Wisconsin and Maryland, so we should truly see why this squad is made of. Only one NHL game tonight, so we will be sticking strictly to the hardwood.
NBA
Denver Nuggets +3.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
This is a case of someone in Vegas with deep pockets knowing something that the general public does not. This game opened up with a spread of -5 favoring the Hawks. This spread already seems somewhat suspicious. The Nuggets are currently eight games under .500, while the Hawks are 8 games above that same mark. Denver will also be without two starters tonight in Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay. The public bought right into the injured Nuggets narrative and jumped on the Hawks. Currently, according to sports insights, a whopping 70% of the public are on the Hawks tonight, in terms of spread bets. Normally when the public is backing a team that much, we will see the spread move the other way. However, thanks to a couple few contraian bettors, the money seems to really be pouring in on the Nuggets. The spread has already moved down a point and a half and the odds keep tilting towards the Nuggets. I would not be shocked if this eventually got down to three. We are going to go with the formula of contrarian bet and sharp money and laugh at the unsuspecting public, when Wilson Chandler and the Nuggets cover this game.
NCAAB
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
We are going to take the same approach with this game that we just did with the Denver-Atlanta game. Currently, there are 61% of spread bets on Baylor. Despite Baylor's popularity, the spread has moved a half point at most books towards the Cowboys, and even a full point at others (spread opened at a point). What could the public be missing about the Cowboys. First, the Kenpom puts the Cowboys at #21. That is a pretty high number for a team that only received one vote in the AP Top 25 this week, which is definitely the first poll the general public uses to evaluate the quality of a college basketball team. Second, the public is probably thrown off by Oklahoma State's record. The Cowboys are currently 15-8, which definitely does not put them at the status of a world beater. However, it should be noted that the Cowboys have played the toughest schedule in the country and those teams have combined to have the greatest defensive efficiency of any set of opponents in the country. The fact that the Cowboys have gotten to seven games over .500 is quite the accomplishment considering what they have constantly faced on the other side of the court. The most astonishing thing about this squad, however, must be the fact that the Cowboys are the second most efficient offense in the country. Yes, efficiency is measured by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Cowboys have scored 124.5 points per 100 possessions just putting them 0.6 points short of first place, which is held by UCLA. Let's put into perspective what an incredible feat this is. UCLA, who has been deemed the most explosive offense in the country by almost every national college basketball media member, has been the most efficient offense by facing a schedule that ranks sub-100 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Cowboys have essentially gotten the same amount of production out of their offense, except they have faced the toughest defenses in the country on a night-to-night basis. Oklahoma State will be doing it again tonight against a Baylor squad that is the sixth most efficient defense in the nation. However, Jawun Evans and the rest of his squad have proven all year, they can score on pretty much anyone. I think Evans and his teammates will be looking to gain a little respect from the national media and the public. I fully expect that the Cowboys will pull off the "upset" in the house that T. Boone Pickens built.
UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolfpack -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
As I'm sure you remember, last week, we took a shot on a pretty low-profile game between the San Francisco Dons and the Pepperdine Waves. The Dons beat that spread by double digits, and we got one of our easier wins of the month, which has definitely had its stressful spots. Tonight, I am getting the same vibe in this Mountain West showdown. In Nevada, we got ourselves a top 75 Kenpom squad, while UNLV is a terrible sub-200 Kenpom team. The Wolfpack are in top 55 in terms of offensive efficiency, while the Rebels are sub-250 ranked team in that same category. The numbers just seem to say that the Wolfpack will score on the Rebels at will and that the Rebels will be able to keep up, as they struggle to put the ball in the basket. Expect a massive blowout in Reno tonight, as the Pack continue to keep base with Boise State atop the Mountain West standings.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 54-40-5 (+130.3 units)
February: 10-10-1 (+4.3 units)
2-1 last night, but a very positive night in terms of units as we get back into positive units for the month thanks to the Washington Capitals, who blew out Carolina last night. We lucked out with an empty netter in the Wild-Jets game (if you want to call it lucking out, there were five goals scored in the first 30 minutes, just one in the last 30 minutes). Also something is clearly wrong with the Wildcats. It seemed last night as if the pressure of making the Big Dance was getting to them. Their next two games will pit them against Wisconsin and Maryland, so we should truly see why this squad is made of. Only one NHL game tonight, so we will be sticking strictly to the hardwood.
NBA
Denver Nuggets +3.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Atlanta Hawks
This is a case of someone in Vegas with deep pockets knowing something that the general public does not. This game opened up with a spread of -5 favoring the Hawks. This spread already seems somewhat suspicious. The Nuggets are currently eight games under .500, while the Hawks are 8 games above that same mark. Denver will also be without two starters tonight in Danilo Gallinari and Emmanuel Mudiay. The public bought right into the injured Nuggets narrative and jumped on the Hawks. Currently, according to sports insights, a whopping 70% of the public are on the Hawks tonight, in terms of spread bets. Normally when the public is backing a team that much, we will see the spread move the other way. However, thanks to a couple few contraian bettors, the money seems to really be pouring in on the Nuggets. The spread has already moved down a point and a half and the odds keep tilting towards the Nuggets. I would not be shocked if this eventually got down to three. We are going to go with the formula of contrarian bet and sharp money and laugh at the unsuspecting public, when Wilson Chandler and the Nuggets cover this game.
NCAAB
Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
We are going to take the same approach with this game that we just did with the Denver-Atlanta game. Currently, there are 61% of spread bets on Baylor. Despite Baylor's popularity, the spread has moved a half point at most books towards the Cowboys, and even a full point at others (spread opened at a point). What could the public be missing about the Cowboys. First, the Kenpom puts the Cowboys at #21. That is a pretty high number for a team that only received one vote in the AP Top 25 this week, which is definitely the first poll the general public uses to evaluate the quality of a college basketball team. Second, the public is probably thrown off by Oklahoma State's record. The Cowboys are currently 15-8, which definitely does not put them at the status of a world beater. However, it should be noted that the Cowboys have played the toughest schedule in the country and those teams have combined to have the greatest defensive efficiency of any set of opponents in the country. The fact that the Cowboys have gotten to seven games over .500 is quite the accomplishment considering what they have constantly faced on the other side of the court. The most astonishing thing about this squad, however, must be the fact that the Cowboys are the second most efficient offense in the country. Yes, efficiency is measured by how many points a team scores per 100 possessions. The Cowboys have scored 124.5 points per 100 possessions just putting them 0.6 points short of first place, which is held by UCLA. Let's put into perspective what an incredible feat this is. UCLA, who has been deemed the most explosive offense in the country by almost every national college basketball media member, has been the most efficient offense by facing a schedule that ranks sub-100 in terms of defensive efficiency. The Cowboys have essentially gotten the same amount of production out of their offense, except they have faced the toughest defenses in the country on a night-to-night basis. Oklahoma State will be doing it again tonight against a Baylor squad that is the sixth most efficient defense in the nation. However, Jawun Evans and the rest of his squad have proven all year, they can score on pretty much anyone. I think Evans and his teammates will be looking to gain a little respect from the national media and the public. I fully expect that the Cowboys will pull off the "upset" in the house that T. Boone Pickens built.
UNLV Rebels at Nevada Wolfpack -12.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
As I'm sure you remember, last week, we took a shot on a pretty low-profile game between the San Francisco Dons and the Pepperdine Waves. The Dons beat that spread by double digits, and we got one of our easier wins of the month, which has definitely had its stressful spots. Tonight, I am getting the same vibe in this Mountain West showdown. In Nevada, we got ourselves a top 75 Kenpom squad, while UNLV is a terrible sub-200 Kenpom team. The Wolfpack are in top 55 in terms of offensive efficiency, while the Rebels are sub-250 ranked team in that same category. The numbers just seem to say that the Wolfpack will score on the Rebels at will and that the Rebels will be able to keep up, as they struggle to put the ball in the basket. Expect a massive blowout in Reno tonight, as the Pack continue to keep base with Boise State atop the Mountain West standings.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 54-40-5 (+130.3 units)
February: 10-10-1 (+4.3 units)
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