Hello,
Man, this can be a brutal business sometimes. I thought we were headed to a nice 3-0 night, and then Lebron pulled off the incredible. All is good though, we righted the ship last night at 2-1. We will try to build on that tonight with NHL games and a college basketball showdown in Evanston.
NCAAB
Illinois Fighting Illini at Northwestern Wildcats -5.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
This spread is actually mind-boggling. Like, actually I am very confused. Northwestern is a very good basketball team and is on the verge of making their first NCAA tournament in school history (they are the last Power 6 conference school to have never made the Big Dance). Despite Northwestern's successes so far this year, I am more shocked due to how bad the Illini are. Illinois are currently second to last in the Big Ten, and they are 0-5 in conference road games. Illinois has been a chaotic program under John Groce's watch, and you really have to feel bad for a guy like Malcolm Hill who has been the lone bright spot on this team. Hill won't be enough tonight in Evanston, as the Wildcats continue to add to their pretty solid resume with a big intrastate win.
NHL
Carolina Hurricanes at Washington Capitals -1.5, +150 (units wagered 10, 15 units won)
This is just a great opportunity to cash in with some value. It is obvious, the Washington Capitals are a better hockey team than the Carolina Hurricanes. It is also well-known that the Caps barely lose on their home-ice. In their last seven home games, the Caps have won outscored opponents by an insane 37-6 margin. One of those game seven games was against this same Hurricanes team. DC won 6-1 that night with starting goalie, Cam Ward, in net for the Canes. Tonight, Carolina will send out backup, Eddie Lack. This could get really ugly. Take the Caps here, as this a great opportunity to eliminate juice and win more than you wagered.
Minnesota Wild at Winnipeg Jets Over 5.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
We have found the Winnipeg Jets in this spot before, and we will attack it again. The Jets are just sieves. They have serious issues on their blue line, and their goaltending has just been atrocious. Despite their defensive issues, their top two lines can really put the puck in the net. The Ehlers-Little-Laine line has been incredibly productive over the past couple of weeks. Being at home tonight will greatly benefit them as the coach, Paul Maurice, will be able to find aways to get them against less defensively-capable lines on Minnesota. In hockey, the road team changes first, so the home team has a great advantage as they can typically matchup whatever lines they want to in any situation after a whistle. This edge will definitely give the Jets more opportunities to score against a fairly defensively sound Wild team. Although the Wild have been pretty good in their own end, first half hero, Devan Dubnyk has been playing at nowhere close to the level that he playing at in the first three months of the season. His monthly GAA went above 2 for the first time and in 2 starts so far this month, he has 4.00 GAA and a save percentage below .900. As I'm sure you can tell, that is not very good. I think both teams will have no issues lighting the lamp tonight and will easily get us over the 5.5 goal threshold.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 52-39-5 (+116.3 units)
February: 8-9-1 (-10.3 units)
Tuesday, February 7, 2017
Monday, February 6, 2017
Daily Three 2/6
Hello,
Well, I guess if you needed more proof that you should never bet against the Patriots, last night was probably all you needed. Tom Brady and James White led the greatest comeback in NFL history to get us of the "schneid." I am still shocked that Joe Buck did not mention lacrosse once last night. Chris Hogan did have a very quiet, but it could have come up on any of the few catches he did make. I think Buck was aware of the props and did his best to not mention things that were placed in them. For example, this is really my fault, apparently, Buck went on Howard Stern last week and straight-up said he would not use the nickname "Matty Ice." I totally missed that until this morning, and so that would have been an easy prop bet win. Shows what can happen with a little research, I am sorry for the oversight and will do my best to reduce it in the future. Tonight, we hit up all three major sports, so let's do it.
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Man, have I been waiting to tell you about the nickname of the Washington basketball franchise. The Wizards used to play in Baltimore where they were originally called the Bullets. The team was named after a nearby ammunition factory in the city. Baltimore is also home to the great Fort McHenry, where our wonderful national anthem was written by Francis Scott Key (doesn't entirely have to do with the nickname, but there were bullets used during the battle that inspired the song). In 1973, the team drove down to the Baltimore-Washington Parkway and set up shop in Landover to become the Washington Bullets. The team decided to keep the nickname and hoped that Baltimore would still embrace the team even though it was moving a bit down south. 23 years later, team owner, Abe Pollin (RIP), decided that the team name had very violent overtones and set a terrible example for a family-friendly business. He also felt that the name hit too close to home as the DC area was going through record-high homicide and shooting rates. He decided to change it to the Wizards as he felt, yes this is actually real, "The name depicts energy and an omnipresent power, and brings to light what is hoped to be the wise and magical nature of the team" (Wizards website). I love Abe Pollin. He is the reason why the Washington Capitals, and I am so very grateful for that. But c'mon man, the team just needs a better name. Since the name change, the team has never gotten past the second round of the playoffs or even won their division. Despite the many struggles, things look like they may finally be taking a turn. The Wizards are currently in first place in the Southeast division and have won 17 straight home games. The recent turn in their production has really had to do with the fact that coach, Scott Brooks, no longer trusts his bench. Like actually, the Wizards play their starters almost the entire game. The only guy on the bench that gets significant run at this time is former Kansas forward, Kelly Oubre. Jr. This choice from Brooks make sense. According to a very nice Ringer article today, The Wizards starting five is the third most productive in the league behind the Warriors and the Clippers. Eventually, the Wiz Kids are probably going to have to get a little depth, but for the time being, the squad is rolling. I know the Cavs can be intimidating, but I think this home streak is going to continue. Wall, Beal, and Porter will probably play upwards of 40 minutes tonight, and the new big 3 in DC, will push them to another big victory at the Phone Booth. .
NCAAB
Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
If we are looking at the Kenpom only, this would be a ridiculous pick to take. Louisville is currently ranked #2, while Virginia is ranked #3. However, the Kenpom does not give us the full picture tonight. The Cardinals will be without four players tonight, including three of their top five scorers. The fourth guy is a role player that doesn't do that much but still sees time on the court. The Cardinals are already going to have their hands full going into Charlottesville as the Wahoos have won four of the last five meetings and currently have the third most efficient defense in the country . Now, they have to find away to replace the 35 points a game that these four dudes bring to the table each day. I think it is too much to ask of this Louisville squad to go into a raucous environment like John Paul Jones arena and keep this game competitive without such key members of their roster. I'm going all-in with the Cavs, as Tony Bennett continues his winning ways over Rick Pitino and the Cards.
NHL
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils -120 (10 units wagered, 8.3 units won)
I'm banking on the duo of Taylor Hall and Cory Schneider tonight in Newark. Taylor Hall was involved in of the more shocking offseason trades as he was shipped out of Edmonton for defenseman Adam Larsson. Ever since the departures of Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise, the Devils have lacked a true playmaker that could create goals for himself and others. Feeling like they had enough depth on the back end, they gave up a solid blue liner for a former number one pick in Hall, and Hall has not disappointed. Hall leads the team in points and assists and is only one goal behind the team lead for goals. Imagine how little production this team would be getting offensively if the team had not acquired Hall. Expect Hall to get a couple of points tonight. While Hall will be manning the offensive effort, Schneider will be in between the pipes for New Jersey. Schneider has had much recent success against the Sabres winning five of his last six games against Buffalo. Along with this recent success, Schneider is also traditionally better in the Prudential Center than he is on the road. He currently has 10-5-3 record at home, and I think he is going to be able to make it 11 wins. Watch the Devils tonight as they complete the season sweep of the Buffalo Sabres.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 50-38-5 (+109 units)
February: 6-8-1 (-17 Units)
Well, I guess if you needed more proof that you should never bet against the Patriots, last night was probably all you needed. Tom Brady and James White led the greatest comeback in NFL history to get us of the "schneid." I am still shocked that Joe Buck did not mention lacrosse once last night. Chris Hogan did have a very quiet, but it could have come up on any of the few catches he did make. I think Buck was aware of the props and did his best to not mention things that were placed in them. For example, this is really my fault, apparently, Buck went on Howard Stern last week and straight-up said he would not use the nickname "Matty Ice." I totally missed that until this morning, and so that would have been an easy prop bet win. Shows what can happen with a little research, I am sorry for the oversight and will do my best to reduce it in the future. Tonight, we hit up all three major sports, so let's do it.
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards -1.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Man, have I been waiting to tell you about the nickname of the Washington basketball franchise. The Wizards used to play in Baltimore where they were originally called the Bullets. The team was named after a nearby ammunition factory in the city. Baltimore is also home to the great Fort McHenry, where our wonderful national anthem was written by Francis Scott Key (doesn't entirely have to do with the nickname, but there were bullets used during the battle that inspired the song). In 1973, the team drove down to the Baltimore-Washington Parkway and set up shop in Landover to become the Washington Bullets. The team decided to keep the nickname and hoped that Baltimore would still embrace the team even though it was moving a bit down south. 23 years later, team owner, Abe Pollin (RIP), decided that the team name had very violent overtones and set a terrible example for a family-friendly business. He also felt that the name hit too close to home as the DC area was going through record-high homicide and shooting rates. He decided to change it to the Wizards as he felt, yes this is actually real, "The name depicts energy and an omnipresent power, and brings to light what is hoped to be the wise and magical nature of the team" (Wizards website). I love Abe Pollin. He is the reason why the Washington Capitals, and I am so very grateful for that. But c'mon man, the team just needs a better name. Since the name change, the team has never gotten past the second round of the playoffs or even won their division. Despite the many struggles, things look like they may finally be taking a turn. The Wizards are currently in first place in the Southeast division and have won 17 straight home games. The recent turn in their production has really had to do with the fact that coach, Scott Brooks, no longer trusts his bench. Like actually, the Wizards play their starters almost the entire game. The only guy on the bench that gets significant run at this time is former Kansas forward, Kelly Oubre. Jr. This choice from Brooks make sense. According to a very nice Ringer article today, The Wizards starting five is the third most productive in the league behind the Warriors and the Clippers. Eventually, the Wiz Kids are probably going to have to get a little depth, but for the time being, the squad is rolling. I know the Cavs can be intimidating, but I think this home streak is going to continue. Wall, Beal, and Porter will probably play upwards of 40 minutes tonight, and the new big 3 in DC, will push them to another big victory at the Phone Booth. .
NCAAB
Louisville Cardinals at Virginia Cavaliers -7 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
If we are looking at the Kenpom only, this would be a ridiculous pick to take. Louisville is currently ranked #2, while Virginia is ranked #3. However, the Kenpom does not give us the full picture tonight. The Cardinals will be without four players tonight, including three of their top five scorers. The fourth guy is a role player that doesn't do that much but still sees time on the court. The Cardinals are already going to have their hands full going into Charlottesville as the Wahoos have won four of the last five meetings and currently have the third most efficient defense in the country . Now, they have to find away to replace the 35 points a game that these four dudes bring to the table each day. I think it is too much to ask of this Louisville squad to go into a raucous environment like John Paul Jones arena and keep this game competitive without such key members of their roster. I'm going all-in with the Cavs, as Tony Bennett continues his winning ways over Rick Pitino and the Cards.
NHL
Buffalo Sabres at New Jersey Devils -120 (10 units wagered, 8.3 units won)
I'm banking on the duo of Taylor Hall and Cory Schneider tonight in Newark. Taylor Hall was involved in of the more shocking offseason trades as he was shipped out of Edmonton for defenseman Adam Larsson. Ever since the departures of Ilya Kovalchuk and Zach Parise, the Devils have lacked a true playmaker that could create goals for himself and others. Feeling like they had enough depth on the back end, they gave up a solid blue liner for a former number one pick in Hall, and Hall has not disappointed. Hall leads the team in points and assists and is only one goal behind the team lead for goals. Imagine how little production this team would be getting offensively if the team had not acquired Hall. Expect Hall to get a couple of points tonight. While Hall will be manning the offensive effort, Schneider will be in between the pipes for New Jersey. Schneider has had much recent success against the Sabres winning five of his last six games against Buffalo. Along with this recent success, Schneider is also traditionally better in the Prudential Center than he is on the road. He currently has 10-5-3 record at home, and I think he is going to be able to make it 11 wins. Watch the Devils tonight as they complete the season sweep of the Buffalo Sabres.
Yesterday: 1-2
Overall: 50-38-5 (+109 units)
February: 6-8-1 (-17 Units)
Sunday, February 5, 2017
Daily Three 2/5
Hello,
So, another rough day. It is unfortunate, but we shall move on. Today is obviously the Super Bowl, so we are going to have a little fun. There are going to be a couple of prop bets, and then a pick on the actual result of the game. So, let's go.
NFL
Over 2.5 times "Matty Ice" is mentioned during the broadcast (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
There are just so many situations where Joe Buck can call Matt Ryan "Matty Ice." Just imagine all of the times the Patriots D-Line will cause some pressure, but Matt will keep his cool and show off his excellent pocket presence. A perfect time for the nickname to be used. It could be used when he throws touchdowns, scrambles for a nice run, or makes a sick 4th quarter comeback. I think we will be hearing "Matty Ice" a ton tonight.
Lacrosse will be mentioned during the broadcast tonight (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
The real prop bet should be who they are going to refer to when they talk about lacrosse. Patriots wide receiver, Chris Hogan, played lacrosse at Penn State for four years before playing football for a year at Monmouth. Bill Belichick is an avid lacrosse fan, constantly following Johns Hopkins, and his son played lacrosse in college. I would make this the lock of the month, but I want to save it for a random weeknight to spice up your week. Lax is life, and the bros will be happy to hear it tonight.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
You have probably heard everything about these two teams over the past two weeks, so I am not going to say very much at all, as it would be a waste of your time. The only thing i will say is that there is one cardinal rule in betting at the moment (well, two if you include never betting on Western Michigan basketball game). Never bet against the Patriots. I will follow the rule and sail to victory.
Yesterday: 0-2-1
Overall: 49-36-5 (+120 units)
February: 5-6-1 (-6 units)
So, another rough day. It is unfortunate, but we shall move on. Today is obviously the Super Bowl, so we are going to have a little fun. There are going to be a couple of prop bets, and then a pick on the actual result of the game. So, let's go.
NFL
Over 2.5 times "Matty Ice" is mentioned during the broadcast (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
There are just so many situations where Joe Buck can call Matt Ryan "Matty Ice." Just imagine all of the times the Patriots D-Line will cause some pressure, but Matt will keep his cool and show off his excellent pocket presence. A perfect time for the nickname to be used. It could be used when he throws touchdowns, scrambles for a nice run, or makes a sick 4th quarter comeback. I think we will be hearing "Matty Ice" a ton tonight.
Lacrosse will be mentioned during the broadcast tonight (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
The real prop bet should be who they are going to refer to when they talk about lacrosse. Patriots wide receiver, Chris Hogan, played lacrosse at Penn State for four years before playing football for a year at Monmouth. Bill Belichick is an avid lacrosse fan, constantly following Johns Hopkins, and his son played lacrosse in college. I would make this the lock of the month, but I want to save it for a random weeknight to spice up your week. Lax is life, and the bros will be happy to hear it tonight.
Atlanta Falcons at New England Patriots -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
You have probably heard everything about these two teams over the past two weeks, so I am not going to say very much at all, as it would be a waste of your time. The only thing i will say is that there is one cardinal rule in betting at the moment (well, two if you include never betting on Western Michigan basketball game). Never bet against the Patriots. I will follow the rule and sail to victory.
Yesterday: 0-2-1
Overall: 49-36-5 (+120 units)
February: 5-6-1 (-6 units)
Saturday, February 4, 2017
Daily Three 2/4
Hello,
So yeah, it happened again. Western Michigan was up 18 at one point yesterday in their game against Central Michigan and managed to lose by 4. It is what it is. Bad luck happens, and I am sure we will benefit from something today that is rather unfair for another better. This is the game, and we are just trying to beat it. In a month of writing this blog, we had our first 0-3 day. I'm happy to say it took a pretty long time, and we will look to have it never happen again. Only three picks today, but all college basketball on this jam-packed saturday.
NCAAB
Purdue Boilermakers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins
The Maryland Terrapins are 20-2. Normally when a Big 10 team is 20-2, we praise its talents and list it as a National Title contender. The Turtles are the mere exception. Despite winning basketball games, advanced metrics are not very impressed with this team. They are currently ranked 38 in the Kenpom. Teams that are ranked above them: 13-8 Clemson, 13-9 Wake Forest, 13-9 Tennessee, 14-8 Marquette. The Illinois State Redbirds are a Missouri Valley team with a worse record than the Terps and are only placed one spot below Maryland. This team has really benefited in close games (ranked 17 in luck according to Kenpom), and it must be noted how this team is able to pull through in these situations. However, this incredible run of winning close games has to end at some point. Toady, they get their first real challenge in Big Ten play against Purdue, who despite having a worse record is 26 slots ahead of Maryland in Kenpom. I think the luck runs out today, and the Boilermakers get a big win on the road.
Seton Hall Pirates at Georgetown Hoyas -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
These two teams are literally side by side in the Kenpom ratings. There are really only two things separating these two teams today going into their matchup: home court advantage and the fact that the Hoyas are scorching hot, while the Pirates are Arctic freezing. The Hoyas, who got off to a rough stet in conference, have won their last three games including big wins against Creighton and Butler (on the road). The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 and are currently looking for answers to their serious issues. I think the will continue to search after today's game as G'town's two headed monster, LJ Peak and Rodney Pryor take care of business today at the Phone Booth.
Utah Utes -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Stanford Cardinal
I am simply going to use the transitive property here. Earlier this season, the Utes defeated the Colorado Buffaloes by double digits. On Thursday, the Buffaloes defeated the Cardinal by 7 in Palo Alto. From both of these results, we can conclude that the Utes should beat the Cardinal pretty handedly. If we need some advanced metrics to convince you, Utah is currently 40 in the Kenpom, while Stanford is 112. Don't overthink it, just take Utah in this game.
Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 49-34-4 (+140 units)
February: 5-4 (+14 units)
So yeah, it happened again. Western Michigan was up 18 at one point yesterday in their game against Central Michigan and managed to lose by 4. It is what it is. Bad luck happens, and I am sure we will benefit from something today that is rather unfair for another better. This is the game, and we are just trying to beat it. In a month of writing this blog, we had our first 0-3 day. I'm happy to say it took a pretty long time, and we will look to have it never happen again. Only three picks today, but all college basketball on this jam-packed saturday.
NCAAB
Purdue Boilermakers -1 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Maryland Terrapins
The Maryland Terrapins are 20-2. Normally when a Big 10 team is 20-2, we praise its talents and list it as a National Title contender. The Turtles are the mere exception. Despite winning basketball games, advanced metrics are not very impressed with this team. They are currently ranked 38 in the Kenpom. Teams that are ranked above them: 13-8 Clemson, 13-9 Wake Forest, 13-9 Tennessee, 14-8 Marquette. The Illinois State Redbirds are a Missouri Valley team with a worse record than the Terps and are only placed one spot below Maryland. This team has really benefited in close games (ranked 17 in luck according to Kenpom), and it must be noted how this team is able to pull through in these situations. However, this incredible run of winning close games has to end at some point. Toady, they get their first real challenge in Big Ten play against Purdue, who despite having a worse record is 26 slots ahead of Maryland in Kenpom. I think the luck runs out today, and the Boilermakers get a big win on the road.
Seton Hall Pirates at Georgetown Hoyas -2.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
These two teams are literally side by side in the Kenpom ratings. There are really only two things separating these two teams today going into their matchup: home court advantage and the fact that the Hoyas are scorching hot, while the Pirates are Arctic freezing. The Hoyas, who got off to a rough stet in conference, have won their last three games including big wins against Creighton and Butler (on the road). The Pirates have lost 5 of their last 6 and are currently looking for answers to their serious issues. I think the will continue to search after today's game as G'town's two headed monster, LJ Peak and Rodney Pryor take care of business today at the Phone Booth.
Utah Utes -3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Stanford Cardinal
I am simply going to use the transitive property here. Earlier this season, the Utes defeated the Colorado Buffaloes by double digits. On Thursday, the Buffaloes defeated the Cardinal by 7 in Palo Alto. From both of these results, we can conclude that the Utes should beat the Cardinal pretty handedly. If we need some advanced metrics to convince you, Utah is currently 40 in the Kenpom, while Stanford is 112. Don't overthink it, just take Utah in this game.
Yesterday: 0-3
Overall: 49-34-4 (+140 units)
February: 5-4 (+14 units)
Friday, February 3, 2017
Daily Three 2/3
Hello,
Yesterday, we went 2-1 with a rough OT loss in Buffalo. We dug deep in college, and we were rewarded for our work. Tonight, we will go into NHL, NCAAB, and NBA to get our three picks
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won) at Pittsburgh Penguins
Tonight, we got a good battle between the NHL's best division's second and third best teams. In what order, we are not sure about yet. What we do know is that this will most likely be a preview of a first round matchup in April. I must say it is rather unfortunate that the NHL has created this playoff format. Essentially, each division has their own playoffs. So, teams in stronger divisions, like the Metropolitan get a tough draw, while the teams in weaker divisions, like the Pacific, get a way easier path to their conference final. If the format was simply division champions get the top two slots, and then after that it is best record, the Penguins and Blue Jackets would get easier matchups. At the time the playoff format was announced, I understood the reasoning behind it. After banking on many years of legendary Ovechkin-Crosby playoff matchups, the league only got one in the duo's first ten years in the league. Looking to build fierce regional rivalries, the league created the format to get classic matchups like in the good ole' Patrick Division days. However, the format has punished stronger divisions for being good, and the league should just revert to old form of seeding. Anyway, the Blue Jackets dominated the Penguins 7-1 in their only previous meeting this season. Along with the previous result, the Penguins will also be without star, Evgeni Malkin, Connor Sheary, and Matt Cullen tonight. That is a lot of firepower the Pens will have to make up for. The Pens are good on home ice but not invincible. The slumping St. Louis Blues shutout the Pens in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago with Carter Hutton in goal. Carter Hutton!!! I like the value we are getting with one of the best teams in the league this year against a team that is missing key pieces tonight. Go with Columbus tonight.
NCAAB
Western Michigan Broncos +3 (units wagered 10, units won 9) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Logic defies this pick. Central Michigan has the highest scorer in the country in 5'9'' guard, Marcus Keene, and are rated slightly higher in the Kenpom than Western Michigan. However, the spread opened up at -4.5 in favor of CMU and has now moved all the way down to -3 in favor of CMU. Not only that, but the the line has moved so drastically despite the fact that 85% of spread bets are on the Chippewas. This is the same exact situation that we were put in with the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday against this same Western Michigan team. There is some sort of voodoo surrounding this team, and I am going to follow them the rest of the year to try and figure it out. I'm going with the sharp money here and taking the Broncos in their directional battle.
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies pick em' (10 units wagered 9 units won) at Oklahoma City Thunder
Many people will fall for the Russell Westbrook effect when betting on the Thunder. Yes, Russ is a freak and is probably the most athletic man in the NBA (I guess Lebron could make a nice argument against that claim). Yes, Russ is nearly averaging a triple-double a game as well but look who he has around him on his roster. His other starting 4 are Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, and Domantas Sabonis (who was one of my favorite players in college last season at Gonzaga. I really hope he turns into something special at this level). That is not very inspiring stuff against legit NBA rosters, like that of the Memphis Grizzlies. The guy going head-to-head with Westbrook will be Mike Conley. Many people scoffed when Conley became the highest-paid player in the league this past offseason. Although he is not the best player in the league, it is worth noting that he is quietly having a wonderful season and has the Memphis Grizzlies rolling. The Grizz have won three straight games and are starting to challenge for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Thunder are starting to fade, having lost three straight games and struggling to be competitive against quality opponents. I am going with fire over ice in this one and taking the Grizz to come out victorious in OKC.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 49-31-4 (+170 units)
February: 5-1 (+44 units)
Yesterday, we went 2-1 with a rough OT loss in Buffalo. We dug deep in college, and we were rewarded for our work. Tonight, we will go into NHL, NCAAB, and NBA to get our three picks
NHL
Columbus Blue Jackets +140 (10 units wagered, 14 units won) at Pittsburgh Penguins
Tonight, we got a good battle between the NHL's best division's second and third best teams. In what order, we are not sure about yet. What we do know is that this will most likely be a preview of a first round matchup in April. I must say it is rather unfortunate that the NHL has created this playoff format. Essentially, each division has their own playoffs. So, teams in stronger divisions, like the Metropolitan get a tough draw, while the teams in weaker divisions, like the Pacific, get a way easier path to their conference final. If the format was simply division champions get the top two slots, and then after that it is best record, the Penguins and Blue Jackets would get easier matchups. At the time the playoff format was announced, I understood the reasoning behind it. After banking on many years of legendary Ovechkin-Crosby playoff matchups, the league only got one in the duo's first ten years in the league. Looking to build fierce regional rivalries, the league created the format to get classic matchups like in the good ole' Patrick Division days. However, the format has punished stronger divisions for being good, and the league should just revert to old form of seeding. Anyway, the Blue Jackets dominated the Penguins 7-1 in their only previous meeting this season. Along with the previous result, the Penguins will also be without star, Evgeni Malkin, Connor Sheary, and Matt Cullen tonight. That is a lot of firepower the Pens will have to make up for. The Pens are good on home ice but not invincible. The slumping St. Louis Blues shutout the Pens in Pittsburgh a couple of weeks ago with Carter Hutton in goal. Carter Hutton!!! I like the value we are getting with one of the best teams in the league this year against a team that is missing key pieces tonight. Go with Columbus tonight.
NCAAB
Western Michigan Broncos +3 (units wagered 10, units won 9) at Central Michigan Chippewas
Logic defies this pick. Central Michigan has the highest scorer in the country in 5'9'' guard, Marcus Keene, and are rated slightly higher in the Kenpom than Western Michigan. However, the spread opened up at -4.5 in favor of CMU and has now moved all the way down to -3 in favor of CMU. Not only that, but the the line has moved so drastically despite the fact that 85% of spread bets are on the Chippewas. This is the same exact situation that we were put in with the Ohio Bobcats on Tuesday against this same Western Michigan team. There is some sort of voodoo surrounding this team, and I am going to follow them the rest of the year to try and figure it out. I'm going with the sharp money here and taking the Broncos in their directional battle.
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies pick em' (10 units wagered 9 units won) at Oklahoma City Thunder
Many people will fall for the Russell Westbrook effect when betting on the Thunder. Yes, Russ is a freak and is probably the most athletic man in the NBA (I guess Lebron could make a nice argument against that claim). Yes, Russ is nearly averaging a triple-double a game as well but look who he has around him on his roster. His other starting 4 are Steven Adams, Victor Oladipo, Andre Roberson, and Domantas Sabonis (who was one of my favorite players in college last season at Gonzaga. I really hope he turns into something special at this level). That is not very inspiring stuff against legit NBA rosters, like that of the Memphis Grizzlies. The guy going head-to-head with Westbrook will be Mike Conley. Many people scoffed when Conley became the highest-paid player in the league this past offseason. Although he is not the best player in the league, it is worth noting that he is quietly having a wonderful season and has the Memphis Grizzlies rolling. The Grizz have won three straight games and are starting to challenge for home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. The Thunder are starting to fade, having lost three straight games and struggling to be competitive against quality opponents. I am going with fire over ice in this one and taking the Grizz to come out victorious in OKC.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 49-31-4 (+170 units)
February: 5-1 (+44 units)
Thursday, February 2, 2017
Daily Three 2/2
Hello,
Well, last night provided us with a great change of fortune. Syracuse was down by fourteen points with about seven minutes but was able to fight back and force overtime. In OT, Syracuse dominated and pulled off the stung victory. Sports is definitely a tricky business. The 'Cuse victory started off a 3-0 night and a wonderful start to the month. Tonight is definitely the most difficult slate I have had to pick from since I started writing these posts. I had to dig deep, but I think I have found three suitable plays.
Before I continue, I am just going to address the unit system that I use that has confused some readers. In a previous post, I mentioned that each I made was going to be 10 unit wager. The monetary value of a unit can be whatever you want to make it, but I felt 10 units was a good, round number to use. Typically, on a ten unit bet, a win will get you 9 units, as the extra unit is the juice that does not come with you in a win. I did make a few bets where the odds were higher, for example, the Capitals puck line bet last night that was +180. So, that bet really won us 18 units. So, that's why the unit count may seem inflated if you were just counting 10 unit bets with 9 unit victories. From now on, i will provide the units wagered and the units that could be won after the spread.
NHL
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won)
The young guns are starting to come along in Buffalo. Led by Jack Eichel, the Sabres are playing some of their best hockey since the Ryan Miller era. They have won four of seven and are really starting to put pucks on the net. Tonight, they are playing a Rangers team who they have beaten in their last three meetings. The Rangers have really tapered off since their hot start that made them look like contenders in the tough Metropolitan division. However, a combination of poor play in their own end and Henrik Lundqvist appearing to be just ordinary for once have the Rangers stuck in the first Wild Card spot with really no shot on improving their playoff positioning going forward. The youth movement continues tonight in Buffalo, as the Sabres pull off the victory against their intrastate rivals.
NCAAB
Belmont Bruins - 3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Murray State Racers
Okay, this is where things get interesting. I don't know much about these two teams, just like I don't know much about the two teams in the next prediction. I do know that Belmont is in Nashville and has been dominating the Ohio Valley conference since joining in 2013. I know that Murray State is in Kentucky, and the 2014-2015 Racers' team was probably one of the greatest mid-major teams to miss out on the NCAA tournament. That team was led by current Thunder guard, Cameron Payne, and current Iowa State coach, Steve Prohm. Who do you think ended the dream for that Murray State team? Belmont. After that loss and subsequent NIT trip, Payne left early for the NBA and Prohm left for aforementioned Iowa State. The Racers have never been the same since that lose to the Bruins in the Ohio Valley championship and things probably will not get much better for them tonight. Belmont is currently ranked 77 in the Kenpom, while Murray State is at 181. Also, the Bruins are coming into this matchup on a 12 game winning streak compared to the Racers who have lost 2 of 3 games. The Bruins should continue their dominance and pick up a steady victory tonight in Murray.
Pepperdine Waves at San Francisco Dons -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Again, I don't know anything about these teams other than the fact that they are both in the WCC, and that Bill Russell went to school at San Fran. This is strictly a Kenpom play. The Dons are in the top 100. The Waves are currently a sub 300 team (there are 351 teams rated in the the Kenpom). Teams like Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke are constantly double digit favorites against other teams that are also ranked in the top 100 of the Kenpom rankings. I find it hard to believe there can be such a discrepancy between the two teams in the Kenpom, and San Francisco won't blow Pepperdine out of the water. I'm gonna roll with the Dons tonight in a rather obscure spot.
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 47-30-4 (+162 units)
February: 3-0 (+36 units)
Well, last night provided us with a great change of fortune. Syracuse was down by fourteen points with about seven minutes but was able to fight back and force overtime. In OT, Syracuse dominated and pulled off the stung victory. Sports is definitely a tricky business. The 'Cuse victory started off a 3-0 night and a wonderful start to the month. Tonight is definitely the most difficult slate I have had to pick from since I started writing these posts. I had to dig deep, but I think I have found three suitable plays.
Before I continue, I am just going to address the unit system that I use that has confused some readers. In a previous post, I mentioned that each I made was going to be 10 unit wager. The monetary value of a unit can be whatever you want to make it, but I felt 10 units was a good, round number to use. Typically, on a ten unit bet, a win will get you 9 units, as the extra unit is the juice that does not come with you in a win. I did make a few bets where the odds were higher, for example, the Capitals puck line bet last night that was +180. So, that bet really won us 18 units. So, that's why the unit count may seem inflated if you were just counting 10 unit bets with 9 unit victories. From now on, i will provide the units wagered and the units that could be won after the spread.
NHL
New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres +110 (10 units wagered, 11 units won)
The young guns are starting to come along in Buffalo. Led by Jack Eichel, the Sabres are playing some of their best hockey since the Ryan Miller era. They have won four of seven and are really starting to put pucks on the net. Tonight, they are playing a Rangers team who they have beaten in their last three meetings. The Rangers have really tapered off since their hot start that made them look like contenders in the tough Metropolitan division. However, a combination of poor play in their own end and Henrik Lundqvist appearing to be just ordinary for once have the Rangers stuck in the first Wild Card spot with really no shot on improving their playoff positioning going forward. The youth movement continues tonight in Buffalo, as the Sabres pull off the victory against their intrastate rivals.
NCAAB
Belmont Bruins - 3 (10 units wagered, 9 units won) at Murray State Racers
Okay, this is where things get interesting. I don't know much about these two teams, just like I don't know much about the two teams in the next prediction. I do know that Belmont is in Nashville and has been dominating the Ohio Valley conference since joining in 2013. I know that Murray State is in Kentucky, and the 2014-2015 Racers' team was probably one of the greatest mid-major teams to miss out on the NCAA tournament. That team was led by current Thunder guard, Cameron Payne, and current Iowa State coach, Steve Prohm. Who do you think ended the dream for that Murray State team? Belmont. After that loss and subsequent NIT trip, Payne left early for the NBA and Prohm left for aforementioned Iowa State. The Racers have never been the same since that lose to the Bruins in the Ohio Valley championship and things probably will not get much better for them tonight. Belmont is currently ranked 77 in the Kenpom, while Murray State is at 181. Also, the Bruins are coming into this matchup on a 12 game winning streak compared to the Racers who have lost 2 of 3 games. The Bruins should continue their dominance and pick up a steady victory tonight in Murray.
Pepperdine Waves at San Francisco Dons -10.5 (10 units wagered, 9 units won)
Again, I don't know anything about these teams other than the fact that they are both in the WCC, and that Bill Russell went to school at San Fran. This is strictly a Kenpom play. The Dons are in the top 100. The Waves are currently a sub 300 team (there are 351 teams rated in the the Kenpom). Teams like Kentucky, Kansas, and Duke are constantly double digit favorites against other teams that are also ranked in the top 100 of the Kenpom rankings. I find it hard to believe there can be such a discrepancy between the two teams in the Kenpom, and San Francisco won't blow Pepperdine out of the water. I'm gonna roll with the Dons tonight in a rather obscure spot.
Yesterday: 3-0
Overall: 47-30-4 (+162 units)
February: 3-0 (+36 units)
Wednesday, February 1, 2017
Daily Three 2/1
Hello,
Every now and then, you will come across a bet that seems like a surefire lock. You look at spread, do a double take, and then look at some advanced statistics, injury reports, and recent results to see if it adds up. You do the research, and you think you have a steal. The game begins, and everything is going your way, and you start thinking to yourself, "Man, I am so much better than Vegas." As the game progresses, your squad is maintaining the status quo and you start looking into what spots to exploit. Then, the unthinkable happens. You only turned away for five minutes and all of sudden the other team is winning. You start screaming at the heavens and wonder how this could have possibly happened. Finally, the clock strikes 0:00 and you are on the losing side. Devastated and at a loss of words, you go back to your room, sit alone, and put "It's Quiet Uptown" from Hamilton on repeat.
This is what happened last night thanks to the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio was up by 21 points at one point in the first half. That lead fell to 10 points with five minutes left in the game, but at that point, any competent basketball team should be able to hold on to that lead. So at this point, I head over to Chipotle, because you know, it is tuesday. I get back with about 1:45 left in the game, and the game is somehow tied. I am stunned, but still confident that Ohio can get the game back and just be like, "Hahaha, we got you Noah." The last 1:45 play out, and Ohio can only muster 2 more points. They lose 90-85. Confused and shocked, I begin to question myself and wonder what did I miss. I was right on for 35 minutes, and then all of a sudden, it just fell into pieces. I did the ceremonial listening of "It's Quiet Uptown" and realized that there is nothing be ashamed over. I made the right pick, the game went my way for a majority of the game, and if I was given the chance to make that pick today, I would do the same damn thing. There are times where you can doubt a pick that you make, if you overlooked something or just got a bad read, but this was not one of those times. So, today, I am back and ready to make some winning picks.
We won the other two games last night, so we finish the month with a solid 59.4% winning percentage and +126 units. Thus, if you are a $10 a unit player and did a standard 10 unit bet, you made $1,260 in the month of January. Good job, we will look to improve on that this month.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals (-1.5, +180)
Yes, I have harped on the fact that betting the puck line is a very risky proposition. I have also stated that betting on your favorite team can lead to much more heartbreak. However, in this case, my knowledge of the Capitals' recent history (more specifically Braden Holtby's) against the Bruins leads me to make this pick. The Capitals have won their last seven meetings against Boston, including Holtby shutting out the Bruins in all three meetings during the 2014-2015 season. Along with this recent string of domination, the Capitals rarely lose after losing in the previous game. I think the combination of the Caps' run against the Bruins and coming off a loss will lead to a multi-goal victory for DC.
NCAAB
Syracuse Orange pick em' at NC State Wolfpack
I don't have too much to say here. The Orange are significantly better in the Kenpom (Syracuse: 56, NC State: 81) and have the sharp money running towards them. NC State has received 63% of bets but the line has moved from -1.5 NC State to a pick em' (one book even has Syracuse favored). The Orange are also coming off of a giant win over Florida State, while the Wolfpack are still recovering from the beatdown they received in Louisville last week. The famous Syracuse zone should be able to contain study guard Dennis Smith Jr. and the Orange will get a big win on the road.
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies -3 at Denver Nuggets
The story behind the Grizzlies' nickname makes sense in their old home but makes no sense at all in regards to their current home. It is worth noting that the franchise began in Vancouver as the second NBA franchise in Canada. According to the Grizzlies' website, the original name was the Mounties, named after the police force in Canada. However, the franchise later decided to name themselves the Grizzlies after the bear that is synonymous with the province of British Columbia. Unfortunately, things did not work out in Canada, and the franchise packed up and moved to Memphis where things are going very well. The team has had mild success in the very difficult western conference. In regards to the nickname, management says that the city had gotten accustomed to the Grizzlies and did not want to change the name to something more representative of the Memphis area. I guess that is fine, whatever the fans want. In tonight's game, the Grizzlies are just a better team and much more rested than a Nuggets team that is flying back home after a tough loss in LA to the Lakers. The Nuggets were able to have their way on the offensive side of the floor last night, but they were unable to stop the Lakers at all, especially in crunch time. Their lack of defense will most likely be present tonight, but their offense will most likely get stifled by a solid Grizz D. Take Memphis tonight in the Rocky Mountains.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 44-30-4 (+126 Units)
Every now and then, you will come across a bet that seems like a surefire lock. You look at spread, do a double take, and then look at some advanced statistics, injury reports, and recent results to see if it adds up. You do the research, and you think you have a steal. The game begins, and everything is going your way, and you start thinking to yourself, "Man, I am so much better than Vegas." As the game progresses, your squad is maintaining the status quo and you start looking into what spots to exploit. Then, the unthinkable happens. You only turned away for five minutes and all of sudden the other team is winning. You start screaming at the heavens and wonder how this could have possibly happened. Finally, the clock strikes 0:00 and you are on the losing side. Devastated and at a loss of words, you go back to your room, sit alone, and put "It's Quiet Uptown" from Hamilton on repeat.
This is what happened last night thanks to the Ohio Bobcats. Ohio was up by 21 points at one point in the first half. That lead fell to 10 points with five minutes left in the game, but at that point, any competent basketball team should be able to hold on to that lead. So at this point, I head over to Chipotle, because you know, it is tuesday. I get back with about 1:45 left in the game, and the game is somehow tied. I am stunned, but still confident that Ohio can get the game back and just be like, "Hahaha, we got you Noah." The last 1:45 play out, and Ohio can only muster 2 more points. They lose 90-85. Confused and shocked, I begin to question myself and wonder what did I miss. I was right on for 35 minutes, and then all of a sudden, it just fell into pieces. I did the ceremonial listening of "It's Quiet Uptown" and realized that there is nothing be ashamed over. I made the right pick, the game went my way for a majority of the game, and if I was given the chance to make that pick today, I would do the same damn thing. There are times where you can doubt a pick that you make, if you overlooked something or just got a bad read, but this was not one of those times. So, today, I am back and ready to make some winning picks.
We won the other two games last night, so we finish the month with a solid 59.4% winning percentage and +126 units. Thus, if you are a $10 a unit player and did a standard 10 unit bet, you made $1,260 in the month of January. Good job, we will look to improve on that this month.
NHL
Boston Bruins at Washington Capitals (-1.5, +180)
Yes, I have harped on the fact that betting the puck line is a very risky proposition. I have also stated that betting on your favorite team can lead to much more heartbreak. However, in this case, my knowledge of the Capitals' recent history (more specifically Braden Holtby's) against the Bruins leads me to make this pick. The Capitals have won their last seven meetings against Boston, including Holtby shutting out the Bruins in all three meetings during the 2014-2015 season. Along with this recent string of domination, the Capitals rarely lose after losing in the previous game. I think the combination of the Caps' run against the Bruins and coming off a loss will lead to a multi-goal victory for DC.
NCAAB
Syracuse Orange pick em' at NC State Wolfpack
I don't have too much to say here. The Orange are significantly better in the Kenpom (Syracuse: 56, NC State: 81) and have the sharp money running towards them. NC State has received 63% of bets but the line has moved from -1.5 NC State to a pick em' (one book even has Syracuse favored). The Orange are also coming off of a giant win over Florida State, while the Wolfpack are still recovering from the beatdown they received in Louisville last week. The famous Syracuse zone should be able to contain study guard Dennis Smith Jr. and the Orange will get a big win on the road.
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies -3 at Denver Nuggets
The story behind the Grizzlies' nickname makes sense in their old home but makes no sense at all in regards to their current home. It is worth noting that the franchise began in Vancouver as the second NBA franchise in Canada. According to the Grizzlies' website, the original name was the Mounties, named after the police force in Canada. However, the franchise later decided to name themselves the Grizzlies after the bear that is synonymous with the province of British Columbia. Unfortunately, things did not work out in Canada, and the franchise packed up and moved to Memphis where things are going very well. The team has had mild success in the very difficult western conference. In regards to the nickname, management says that the city had gotten accustomed to the Grizzlies and did not want to change the name to something more representative of the Memphis area. I guess that is fine, whatever the fans want. In tonight's game, the Grizzlies are just a better team and much more rested than a Nuggets team that is flying back home after a tough loss in LA to the Lakers. The Nuggets were able to have their way on the offensive side of the floor last night, but they were unable to stop the Lakers at all, especially in crunch time. Their lack of defense will most likely be present tonight, but their offense will most likely get stifled by a solid Grizz D. Take Memphis tonight in the Rocky Mountains.
Yesterday: 2-1
Overall: 44-30-4 (+126 Units)
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